1. CRESCO SPIII Review Meeting
Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze
SANDRO BOLOGNA
CRESCO SPIII Review Meeting
Portici, 23 Ottobre, 2006

2. Esempi di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse
Energia (rete di olio e gas, rete elettrica, …)
Informazione & Comunicazione (reti informatiche e di telecomunicazione
Trasporto (reti stradale, aeree, navali, ferroviarie,….)
Servizi (reti idriche, sanitarie,..)

3. Mutato contesto socio-economico
Financial Services
Infrastrutture verticalmente integrate. Sistemi praticamente autonomi con limitati punti di contatto con le altre infrastrutture
Health Care
Public Utilities
Telecommunication
Infrastrutture fortemente integrate ed interdipendenti e che si basano su un ambiente condiviso

4. 2100 Twh delivered to 400 ML people
UNION FOR THE CO-ORDINATION OF TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY
The UCTE System:
2100 Twh delivered to 400 ML people

5. EUROPE GAS CRISIS WINTER 2006 NETWORK STATE OVERVIEW & ROOT CAUSES

6. Three Layers Model for the Critical Infrastructure
Organisational
Layer
Intra-dependency
Cyber
Layer
Inter-dependency
Physical
Layer

7. Three Layers Model for the Electrical Infrastructure
Electrical Components
generators, transformers, breakers,
connecting cables etc
Control and supervisory hardware/software components
(Scada/EMS systems)
Electrical Power Operators
Independent System Operator
for electricity planning and transmission
Intra-dependency
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Inter-dependency

8. US CANADA BLACK-OUT
Power System Outage Task Force Interim Report

9. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

10. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
will make use of the latest results on complex systems theory to analyse the network’s property and to understand the emergent behaviors that can take place in the network
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

11. COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH (Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…)
Recent researches on large-scale networks make evident of some global properties which are not pre-specified by network design and are difficult or impossible to predict from knowledge of its constituent parts.
(Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…)
Poisson distribution
Random Network
Power-law distribution
Scale-free Network

12. Present limitations of Complex Systems approach
Network as a static graph
Given a network with N nodes and L links 
Create a graph with statistically identical topology
RESULT: model the static network topology
PROBLEM: Real networks are dynamical systems!
Evolving networks
OBJECTIVE: capture the network dynamics
identify the processes that contribute to the network topology
develop dynamical models that capture these processes
METHOD :

13. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-1
Università degli Studi di Catania, Facoltà di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Naturali, Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Prof. Vito Latora

14. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
will make use of complementary risk assessment methods to estimate the probability of unwanted incident that may lead to undesired states
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

15. Modelling tools for dependability analysis
Model checking
Extended Petri Nets
Fault Tree
Bayesian networks

16. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-2
Università degli Studi di Lecce, Dipartimento di Matematica, Prof.ssa Paola Vocca
Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale, Dipartimento di Informatica, Prof. Andrea Bobbio

17. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
will make use of analytical approaches to optimize the network in the presence of different type of constraints
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

18. X X RO MI
Distribution Network

19. TRANSPORTATION NETWORKX X
TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

20. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-3
Università degli Studi di Salerno, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione e Matematica Applicata: Prof. Ciro D’Apice
Università degli Studi di Palermo, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica,
Prof. Antonio Chella

21. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
will model the organization and the operator
behaviour to study organizational vulnerability
Interdependency Model and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

22. SOCIO-COGNITIVE ENGINEERING APPROACH: Human Errors
Copy rights: High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA, Author: Adam Maria Gadomski, 8/10/2003
Large Complex Critical Infrastructure (LCCI)
Technological Grid
Human Errors
Organisation
Human component
Physical component
Cyber component

23. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-4
Università degli Studi di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Impresa, Prof. Lucio Bianco
ECONA - Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca sull’Elaborazione Cognitiva nei Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, Prof.ssa Marta Olivetti Belardinelli

24. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
will establish probable correlation among different networks to understand cascading failures or unknown and emergent behaviours
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

25. Storage, Control Systems
Modelling Networked Infrastructures Interdependencies
Fuel for Generators,
,Lubricants
Fuels, Lubricants
Fuel Transport
Shipping
Transportation
Transpor-
tation
Power for pumping
Stations, Storage
Control Systems
Power for Pump
& Lift Stations
Power for
Switchers
Power for compressors
Storage, Control Systems
Signalling,
Transpor-
tation
Oil
SCADA
Communications
Water for
Production
Cooling
Emission reduction
Water for Cooling,
Electric
Power
Fuel for
Generators,
Heat
Natural
Gas
Water
Source:
“Critic. Infrastruct
Dependencies”
Rinaldi, Peerenboom,Kelly
2002
Telecom

26. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-5
Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e Produzione, Prof. Salvatore Tucci
C.R.I.A.I. Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per l’Informatica e l’Automazione Industriale, Prof. Giorgio Ventre
Università Campus Bio-medico di Roma, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Prof. Roberto Setola (Università degli Studi del Sannio, Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Prof. Luigi Glielmo)

27. National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center