1. Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 and post-CMIP5 Simulated Clouds and Radiation fluxes Using Satellite Observations
1/15/2019
Ryan Stanfield(1), Xiquan Dong(1), Baike Xi(1), Aaron Kennedy(1),
Anthony D. Del Genio(2), Patrick Minnis(3), David Doelling(3),
Norman Loeb(3), Jonathan Jiang(4)
(1) University of North Dakota
(2) NASA GISS
(3) NASA Langley Research Center
(4) JPL – Jet Propulsion Laboratory
This talk is based on the papers of Stanfiled et al. (2014a, b, J. Climate)

2. Our Interest and Focus Zonal averages
1/15/2019
Most GCMs in CMIP5 simulated less Marine Stratocumulus clouds over the SMLs
Provided by: Erica Dolinar

3. Data Sets GCM Simulations: Two versions of the NASA GISS-E2 GCM
40 vertical layers
2°x2.5° (latitude x longitude)
(C5) CMIP5 GISS-E2 Model
AMIP r5i1p3 run
(P5) Post-CMIP5 GISS-E2 Model
Diagnostic Interim Atmospheric Run, 2 Major Modifications
Cumulus parameterization - (Del Genio et al., 2012)
Increased entrainment and rain evaporation.
Changes in the convective downdraft.
Boundary layer turbulence parameterization (Yao and Cheng, 2012)
Computation of nonlocal transports.
Turbulent length scale.
PBL height.
1/15/2019

4. Satellite Data CERES-MODIS (CM) CloudSat/CALIPSO (CC) AIRS (AIRS)
SYN1 dataset
1°x 1°  2°x 2.5° grid box
2000/03 – 2005/12
CloudSat/CALIPSO (CC)
2B-CWC-RO dataset : Calypso IWP, LWP, IWC, and LWC
2°x 2.5° grid generated from observations
2006/07 – 2010/06
______________________________________________________________________________
AIRS (AIRS)
AIRX3STM dataset
2002/09 – 2012/12
AMSR-E (AMSRe)
2002/07 – 2011/07
0.25°x 0.25°  2°x 2.5° grid box
_________________________________________________________________________
CERES-EBAF (CE)
Used for radiative comparisons
1/15/2019

5. Cloud [%] Fraction CloudSat CALIPSO (CC) Post-CMIP5 GISS-E2 (P5) CMIP5
CERES-MODIS
(CM)
1/15/2019
Post-CMIP5
GISS-E2
(P5)
CMIP5
GISS-E2
(C5)
P5 - CM
C5 - CM
P5 - CC
C5 - CC

6. Total Cloud Fraction High CF Mid CF Low CF > 440 mb
Variable
Model
Observation
Bias
RMSE
Correlation
Quicklook CF
(Total)
[%] P5 CM
−7.6
9.01
0.90
I,I,I C5
−19.1
20.45
0.74 CC
−13.7
14.37
−25.2
26.08
0.75
(High)
4.2
5.82
W,W,I
−1.7
4.31
0.64
−1.9
4.84
0.68
−7.8
9.05
0.67
(Mid)
9.4
10.39
0.82
3.1
6.8
0.71
−5.1
6.78
0.92
−11.4
13.48
0.84
(Low)
17.9
24.42
0.53
I,W,I
−20.2
21.99
0.24
7.5
12.14
0.87
−30.6
32.04
0.70
Total Cloud Fraction
1/15/2019
High CF
> 440 mb
Mid CF
440 < P < 680
Low CF
< 680 mb
Changes to the PBL scheme implemented in the GISS P5 GCM have increased low level CF by nearly 20% (compared to C5), bringing total column CF closer to both CM and CC.

7. Cloud [g m-2] Water Path CloudSat CALIPSO (CC) Post-CMIP5 GISS-E2 (P5)
CERES-MODIS
(CM)
1/15/2019
Post-CMIP5
GISS-E2
(P5)
CMIP5
GISS-E2
(C5)
P5 - CM
C5 - CM
P5 - CC
C5 - CC

8. Total Cloud Water Path Liquid Water Path Ice Water Path Cloud Fraction
Variable
Model
Observation
Bias
RMSE
Correlation
Quicklook
CWP
[g / m2] P5 CM
−19.5
68.62
0.43
W,I,I C5
2.2
68.99
0.36 CS
6.3
45.96
0.51
I,I,I
28.0
60.84
0.34
LWP
−3.9
26.4
0.53
21.1
49.61
0.12
IWP
10.2
50.38
0.08
W,W,W
6.8
49.87
0.04
Total
Cloud Fraction
1/15/2019
Cloud
Water Path
Liquid
Water Path
Ice
Water Path
Over the tropics, the decrease in CWP from the C5 to the P5 version of the model is consistent with the decrease observed in total column CF. Whereas comparing CWP and total column CF over the SMLs shows the opposite relationship, most likely an artifact due to a shift from stratiform cloud to shallow convection, whose condensate is not accounted for in the CWP diagnostic

9. AMSRe Post-CMIP5 GISS-E2 (P5) CMIP5 GISS-E2 (C5) P5 - AIRS C5 - AIRS
Precip. Water
Vapor (PWV)
[g m-2]
AMSRe
AIRS
1/15/2019
Post-CMIP5
GISS-E2
(P5)
CMIP5
GISS-E2
(C5)
P5 - AIRS
C5 - AIRS
P5 - AMSRe
C5 - AMSRe

10. Variable
Model
Observation
Bias
RMSE
Correlation
Quicklook
PWV
(ALL)
[g / m2] P5
AIRS
1.3
1.66
0.98
W,W,- C5
0.0
0.97
(Ocean)
1.67
0.1
0.87
AMSR-E
−0.6
1.07
0.99
I,I,-
−1.8
1.92
PWV
1/15/2019
PWV
(Water Only)
SST
Over the ocean, the P5 results agree better with AMSR-E retrievals globally, particularly over the SMLs.

11. Post-CMIP5 GISS-E2 (P5) P5 - AIRS CMIP5 GISS-E2 (C5) C5 - AIRS
RH Profiles
AIRS
1/15/2019
Post-CMIP5
GISS-E2
(P5)
P5 - AIRS
CMIP5
GISS-E2
(C5)
C5 - AIRS
Over the SMLs, the P5 and C5 low-level RHs are ~10% higher and lower than the AIRS retrievals, respectively. This is consistent with our CF comparison and provides strong support for the increase in the number of low-level clouds simulated by P5.

12. Variable
Model
Observation
Bias
RMSE
Correlation
Quicklook CF
(Total)
[%] P5 CM
−7.6
9.01
0.90
I,I,I C5
−19.1
20.45
0.74 CC
−13.7
14.37
−25.2
26.08
0.75
(High)
4.2
5.82
W,W,I
−1.7
4.31
0.64
−1.9
4.84
0.68
−7.8
9.05
0.67
(Mid)
9.4
10.39
0.82
3.1
6.8
0.71
−5.1
6.78
0.92
−11.4
13.48
0.84
(Low)
17.9
24.42
0.53
I,W,I
−20.2
21.99
0.24
7.5
12.14
0.87
−30.6
32.04
0.70
CWP
[g / m2]
−19.5
68.62
0.43
W,I,I
2.2
68.99
0.36 CS
6.3
45.96
0.51
28.0
60.84
0.34
LWP
−3.9
26.4
21.1
49.61
0.12
IWP
10.2
50.38
0.08
W,W,W
49.87
0.04
PWV
(ALL)
AIRS
1.3
1.66
0.98
W,W,-
0.0
0.97
(Ocean)
1.67
0.1
AMSR-E
−0.6
1.07
0.99
I,I,-
−1.8
1.92
1/15/2019
Over the SMLs, we see excellent agreement between the P5 simulation, CS/CC, and AMSR-E observations.

13. OLR
1/15/2019
SW ABS
Albedo
P5/C5/CE
Clear-Sky
All-Sky
Changes to the P5 low-level CF have had a minimal impact on OLR but a large impact on all-sky albedo and SW absorption, as can be expected.

14. Total Column CF
P5/C5/CE
CWP
1/15/2019
LW CRE
SW CRE
Net CRE
Biases between CE observations and P5 version of the model have decreased in LW/SW CRE. Differences between modeled and observed LW and Net CRE are predominantly due to differences in clear-sky OLR.

15. CF comparisons over the SMLs
P5/C5 compared to CM
P5/C5 compared to CC
1/15/2019
Great improvement in the modeled total column CF is observed in the new P5 simulation, primarily due to the modifications made to the boundary layer parameterization.

16. Relationship between SW CRE and CF over the SMLs
P5/C5/CE
1/15/2019
The correlation and slope between SW CRE and CF in the P5 simulations more closely resembles CE observations.

17. Conclusions
Overall, the changes implemented in the latest GISS P5 GCM, especially the changes in boundary layer depth, have shown a significant improvement in model-simulated clouds and cloud properties.
Low-level P5 cloud fractions have increased by ~20%, bringing the modeled total column cloud fraction in the SMLs closer to both CM and CC observations.
P5 simulated PWV matches closely with AMSR-E observations.
Low-level RH has increased over the SMLs in the P5 simulation, corresponding well with our CF comparison.
Biases in both LW and SW CRE have decreased. Differences between P5 and CE LW and Net CRE are predominantly due to differences in clear-sky OLR.
The correlation and slope between CF and SW CRE in the P5 simulations more closely resembles CE observations.
1/15/2019

18. Thanks for your attention and Support
from Xiquan Dong’s research group

19. < Reference Slides >
Ryan Stanfield

20. 1/15/2019

21. Stats-Global 1/15/2019 Variable Model Observation Bias RMSE
Correlation
Quicklook CF
(Total)
[%] P5 CM
−0.3
14.98
0.64
I,I,I C5
−0.9
16.49
0.39 CC
−13.0
15.69
0.75
−13.6
17.37
0.59
(High)
5.1
11.74
0.63
W,W,I
−2.9
10.02
0.58
9.40
0.68
I,I,W
−8.3
10.18
(Mid)
8.5
13.74
W,W,-
3.0
10.04
−4.2
6.89
0.90
−9.7
12.51
0.80
(Low)
16.2
30.20
0.57
−7.0
16.33
0.44
7.4
22.36
0.61
I,W,I
−15.8
21.51
0.49
CWP
[g / m2]
42.3
99.23
0.46
68.9
111.95
0.43 CS
26.0
78.77
0.67
52.6
90.46
0.65
LWP
29.62
24.6
57.5
0.38
IWP
35.3
84.68
0.54
W,W,W
27.7
73.82
PWV
(ALL)
AIRS
1.4
2.45
0.99
−0.4
1.76
(Ocean)
2.3
2.82
0.4
1.66
AMSR-E
0.3
2.66
I,W,-
1/15/2019

22. Stats-SML 1/15/2019 Variable Model Observation Bias RMSE Correlation
Quicklook CF
(Total)
[%] P5 CM
−7.6
9.01
0.90
I,I,I C5
−19.1
20.45
0.74 CC
−13.7
14.37
−25.2
26.08
0.75
(High)
4.2
5.82
W,W,I
−1.7
4.31
0.64
−1.9
4.84
0.68
−7.8
9.05
0.67
(Mid)
9.4
10.39
0.82
3.1
6.8
0.71
−5.1
6.78
0.92
−11.4
13.48
0.84
(Low)
17.9
24.42
0.53
I,W,I
−20.2
21.99
0.24
7.5
12.14
0.87
−30.6
32.04
0.70
CWP
[g / m2]
−19.5
68.62
0.43
W,I,I
2.2
68.99
0.36 CS
6.3
45.96
0.51
28.0
60.84
0.34
LWP
−3.9
26.4
21.1
49.61
0.12
IWP
10.2
50.38
0.08
W,W,W
49.87
0.04
PWV
(ALL)
AIRS
1.3
1.66
0.98
W,W,-
0.0
0.97
(Ocean)
1.67
0.1
AMSR-E
−0.6
1.07
0.99
I,I,-
−1.8
1.92
1/15/2019