Demography of Texas and Early Head Start

Demography of Texas and Early Head Start
Region 10 Early Head Start Richardson, Texas February 21, 2010 Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)
Demographic Highlights TEXAS is: big. The population of Texas is the second largest in the United States, approaching 25 million people (estimated population of 24.8 million people in 2009).7 young. Approximately 28% of Texas’ population is under 18 and only 10% of the population is older than 65 years.1 Webb County in Texas, has the youngest population in the U.S. with children younger than 5 comprising 12.8% of the population.7 embracing of culture and diversity. Approximately 9 million or 38% of Texans are of Hispanic descent, 2.8 million or 12% are African Americans, and 1 million or 4% are other (non-Anglo mainly of Asian descent).1 In about a decade, it is expected that Texas’ population will have more persons of Hispanic descent than any other racial or ethnic group.4 a desired place to live and work. Net in-migration to Texas accounts for almost half of the population growth in recent years.1 More than 171,900 college graduates moved into Texas each year between 2006 and 2008, placing Texas as 2nd in the Nation by this measure. The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to ensuring that our policy makers, state and local government agencies, businesses, and the general public have ready access to information about our greatest asset: our people. Our mission is to help our constituents to understand the population characteristics and trends that are relevant to their areas of responsibility and interest and to present that information in a way that is easily understood. Toward this end, we are working to craft products and informational interfaces that will target the informational needs of our constituents. We are also very committed to providing timely responses to our constituents specific informational needs. This slide provides a number of relevant demographic facts about our State’s greatest asset. Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau, Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)
TEXAS is: urban. Texas has three of the top 10 largest cities in the Nation.3 Several of the metropolitan areas in Texas are among the most rapidly growing in the Nation.5 rural. Texas is the second largest state in the Nation in terms of square miles (268,601) and approximately 17% of the population lives in rural areas.1 a working state. Texas has a civilian labor force of more than twelve million workers and an unemployment rate lower than in most States.6 family oriented and multigenerational. Texas ranks 3rd among states for the percent of households which are married-couple families with children (24.4%).2 Texas ranks 3rd among states for percent of households which are multigenerational (4.5%).2 growing – fast. Texas gained more population than any other state in the last estimate year (between July 1, 2008 and July 1, 2009), adding 478,000 people.7 Among cities over 100,000 population in the U.S., 4 of the 10 fastest growing areas are in Texas ( change).7 Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau, Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Fastest Growing States, 2000-2010
Population* 2010 Numerical Change Percent United States 281,424,602 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7 Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3% Arizona 5,130,632 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5% Virginia 7,078,515 8,001,024 1,261,385 24.6% Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009
Percent Change Due to Year* Population Numerical Change Natural Increase Net Migration Percent 1950 7,711,194 -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.09 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.26 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.42 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.15 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.35 2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33 * All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 is for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009
Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Authorized international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high though with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

Total Population in Texas Counties, 2009
This map demonstrates the estimated number of people living in each county in The Census Bureau has released total county estimates, but not yet race/ethnic specific estimates for Darker colored counties are those with more people. Rural west and north west Texas counties tend to have small populations except for those counties that have urbanized areas. Areas of population concentration and density are in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex area, the Houston, Beaumont area, and the San Antonio, Austin, I35 corridor. Additionally the Brownsville, McAllen, and Laredo border area and El Paso have large and more concentrated populations. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2009
Population increase for Texas was almost 19% during this period This map demonstrates the percent change in population over a nine year period. Percent change is one indicator of the speed of population change but is not always an indicator of the absolute change in numbers. For example, county A with 100 people added 100 people, and has a 100% increase. Meanwhile county B with 1,000 people added 100 people and has a 10% increase. County A is growing at a more rapid rate than county B, but in terms of total numbers, they grew by the same amount. The State of Texas is estimated to have grown by almost 19% between 2000 and 2009. The darker green colors on this map indicate counties with greater percentage change. The counties that are white mostly experienced negative change, or population decline. Thus, many of the more rural, less populated counties have experienced declines in population over the past nine years. Most counties experienced increases within 25%, while a smaller number of counties surrounding urbanized areas experienced significant growth beyond 25%. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Projected Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040
This map indicates projected percent change in the population of counties between 2008 and The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate the trends in population growth and decline we have seen this past decade will continue. Major metropolitan areas will continue to increase as will the southern border region. More rural, less populated counties will likely be stable or will lose population. Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Estimates

Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration. That is, persons who are citizens or legal residents of the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent counties. Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
This map demonstrates in migration of INTERNATIONAL migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border. Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to those counties. Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Estimated Number and Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
White Hispanic Black Other Total Net domestic migration Number of migrants 371,150 238,866 195,024 43,663 848,702 Percent of Row Total 44% 28% 23% 5% International migration 224,820 469,591 73,140 165,532 933,083 24% 50% 8% 18% 595,970 708,457 268,163 209,195 1,781,785 33% 40% 15% 12% 52% of all migrants were international 67% of all migrants This table presents the estimated number and percent of migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by race/ethnicity and type of migrant (domestic and international). The majority of domestic migrants to Texas were non-Hispanic Anglo (White), followed by persons of Hispanic descent and non-Hispanic African Americans (Black). Persons of Hispanic descent made up about half of all international migrants to Texas during this period, followed by non-Hispanic Anglo persons. More than half of the population change attributable to migration in Texas over this period is attributable to international migration. One-third (1/3) of the population growth attributable to all migration over this period was from non-Hispanic Anglo persons and the balance (2/3) was from persons of Hispanic, African American, and Other (non-Anglo) descent. Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Population by State of Residence: January 2009 and 2000
The question of unauthorized migration often arises in the context of discussing migration in Texas. The Department of Homeland Security estimates that there were approximately 1.68 million unauthorized migrants residing in Texas in This number may have declined some because of the downturn in the economy. Texas is second to California in terms of number of unauthorized migrants. Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other. In 2010, it is estimated that about 46% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent). Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census count

Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2008
Texas and Region 10, Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2008 Texas Region 10 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2008 American Community Survey Microdata File Counties Summated: Collin,Dallas,Ellis,Fannin,Grayson,Hunt,Kaufman,Rockwall

Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic Anglo is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.

Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic Anglo is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.

Projected Population Aged Less Than 18 Years by County, 2010 and 2030
Source: Texas State Data Center, Population Projections using migration scenario

Projected Hispanic Population Aged Less Than 18 by County, Texas, 2010

Projected Non-Hispanic Black Population Aged Less Than 18 by County, Texas, 2010

Projected Non-Hispanic Anglo Population Aged Less Than 18 by County, Texas, 2010

Population Growth in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA, 1980-2040 (2000-2007 Migration Scenario)
County 1980 1990 2000 2010 2040 Collin 144,576 264,036 491,675 782,341 3,253,728 Dallas 1,556,390 1,852,810 2,218,899 2,368,139 3,143,696 Delta 4,839 4,857 5,327 5,231 4,109 Denton 143,126 273,525 432,976 662,614 2,665,233 Ellis 59,743 85,167 111,360 149,610 438,702 Hunt 55,248 64,343 76,596 86,129 158,203 Johnson 67,649 97,165 126,811 150,934 457,377 Kaufman 39,015 52,220 71,313 103,350 386,574 Parker 44,609 64,785 88,495 116,927 280,800 Rockwall 14,528 25,604 43,080 78,337 509,999 Tarrant 860,880 1,170,103 1,446,219 1,809,034 3,916,053 Wise 26,575 34,679 48,793 59,127 97,389 Total 3,017,178 3,989,294 5,161,544 6,371,773 15,311,863 Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Population and 2040 with and numeric and percent change.xlsx Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Counts; State Data Center 2009 Population Estimates; 2040: State Data Center Migration Scenario Projection

Components of Change for Dallas- Fort Worth-Arlington MSA, 2000 to 2009
County Population Births-Deaths Migration Residual 2000 2009 Change Foreign Domestic Collin 491,675 791,631 299,956 74,478 26,253 195,084 4,044 Dallas 2,218,899 2,451,730 232,831 266,362 210,742 -270,188 26,022 Delta 5,327 5,410 83 -67 -2 180 -28 Denton 432,976 658,616 225,640 63,268 15,076 144,388 2,911 Ellis 111,360 151,737 40,377 10,632 2,895 27,189 -341 Hunt 76,596 82,831 6,235 3,282 1,604 1,843 -494 Johnson 126,811 156,997 30,186 8,773 2,041 19,912 -540 Kaufman 71,313 103,038 31,725 5,675 1,550 24,166 344 Parker 88,495 114,919 26,424 4,188 797 21,740 -301 Rockwall 43,080 81,391 38,311 5,386 930 31,444 552 Tarrant 1,446,219 1,789,900 343,681 166,565 72,330 114,035 -9,260 Wise 48,793 59,415 10,622 2,599 986 7,269 -236 Total 5,161,544 6,447,615 1,286,071 611,141 335,202 317,062 22,673 Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Components of Change with FIPS.xlsx Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2009)

Population by Age in the State of Texas and Region 10, 2008
Source: Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Population Pyramids\MSAs\pop_pyramid_cb2007_Head_Start_agegrp_data.xlsx Source: Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates Counties Summated: Collin,Dallas,Ellis,Fannin,Grayson,Hunt,Kaufman,Rockwall

Children 0-5 years of age by Race and Ethnicity, Region 10 and Texas
Source: American Community Survey, Region 10 for this chart includes Collin, Ellis, Grayson, Cooke, Kaufman and Rockwall counties

Children 0-5 years of age by language spoken at home, Region 10 and Texas

Children 0-5 years of age family structure of household, Region 10 and Texas

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
This graph represents variable population projections for the State under different migration scenarios. The base (brown dashed line) is the assumption of no migration. Under this scenario, the State will grow as a function of natural increase (births-deaths). The ½ scenario (the red split line) is the most conservative. The and scenarios reflect estimates of migration for those two periods and suggest more rapid population growth. Under any scenario, even no migration, Texas will continue to grow. Year Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Percent of Population Growth and Projected Population Growth by Race/Ethnicity, Texas
Examining racial and ethnic groups contributions to Texas’ population growth, we can see that the Anglo population has been contributing less and is expected to contribute proportionately less into the future, while the Hispanic descent population has been and is expected to be contributing increasingly more to our State’s population growth. Source: U.S. Census Counts, and Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040
The migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015. Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , Migration Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Population of Males Aged Less that 18 years, Texas, 2010-2040
The migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015. Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , Migration Scenario

Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than very well by state, 2009
Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2009
Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Percent of population that is foreign born, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample

Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2005-2009

Percent of Households that are Linguistically Isolated, by County, 2005-2009

Percent of 7-12 Grade Students Dropping Out by County, 2008
Source: Texas Education Agency

Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Educational Attainment in Texas, 2009
Level of Educational Attainment Percent of persons aged 25 years and older State Ranking High school diploma or equivalency 79.9% 50 Bachelors 25.5% 31 Graduate 8.5% 33 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009.

Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school or equivalent degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample

Percent of population aged 25 years and older with Bachelors degree or higher. 2005-2009

Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009
In 2009, about 92% of the non-Hispanic white population in Texas had graduated from high school or had more education. For the Hispanic population, 74% had graduated from high school or had more education. Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
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txsdc.utsa.edu

Demographics and Destiny
Texas is growing – with more people being added than in any other state we will add 3 if not 4 additional seats to our representation in the U.S. Congress. Texas is becoming more urban. Many rural counties are losing population. Urbanized metropolitan areas have been growing dramatically over the decade. Texas is becoming more diverse – much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population. persons, access to health care, and transportation.

Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas. If you have any questions or needs for additional information please do not hesitate to contact us. Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you.

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