1. ANNUAL MEETING AFOA October 9, 2013
OUTLOOK SEMINAR
ANNUAL MEETING
AFOA
October 9, 2013

3. Fundamental Factors in the formation of Prices Market
World Macro-Economic Conditions
Basic supply/ demand input
Energy
Market
Investments
Exchange
Growth in Consumption of Protein

4. Source: USDA, Oil World

5. Area and Production of Grains and Oilseeds
Source: USDA Oil World

6. CRUDE PETROLEUM

8. RELEVANT MARKET FACTORS PAST 18 MONTHS
Crop Losses in Soy in South America
March/April 2012
Increase in the Brazilian Corn Crop
May/June 2012
Crop Losses in Corn and Soy in the U.S.
September/October 2012
Record Soy and Corn Crops in South America
Progress of Northern Hemisphere Crops
Continued Growth in Palm Oil Production
2013

9. WORLD CROP SUPPLY/DEMAND (Mln. Tonnes, Mln. Hectares)
This chart shows the tightness leading into the summer of 2008 and the large increase in wheat production that afforded the market some major relief.
One good year doesn’t fix the problem, but with everything else in the financial markets being weak, it pushes us in that direction. It will take another year of good production to really make the market comfortable.

12. MARKET ISSUES Political / Financial Issues
Final Northern Hemisphere Crop Results
Rebound in 13/14 Livestock Demand
Crude Oil / Energy Issues
Southern Hemisphere Plantings / Weather
Palm Oil Supplies / Stocks
Biofuels Issues: Political / Economic?
Farm Economics 2014?

13. CONTINUOUS OIL SHARE