2. More Ad Money for the Midterms
In its late-2017 forecast, Borrell Associates projected total ad spending for the 2018 midterm elections at $8.5 billion. Then, during April 2018, it increased the forecast by $321 million, to $8.8 billion, with newspapers, radio and cable TV receiving most of it.
Newspapers will now receive $619 million, compared $510 million in the earlier forecast; radio, $683 million versus $595 million; and cable TV $1.11 billion versus $1.02 billion. Broadcast TV will also receive more, or $3.42 billion versus $3.36 billion.
According to a June 2018 news story from The Hill, Minnesota will receive the most ad dollars, or $22.7 million from four major political funding groups, two Democratic and two Republican; followed by Pennsylvania, $20 million+; and California, $19 million+.

3. Voters Across the Board
According to a June 2018 survey from Pew Research Center, the 51% of registered voters who said they are enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections is the largest percentage during the last four midterms.
During the previous three midterm cycles, Pew’s surveys of voter enthusiasm just a few weeks before the elections didn’t change much from Pew’s early surveys.
Registered voters who said they support a Democratic candidate were more enthusiastic about voting then those supporting a Republican candidate, or 55% and 50%, respectively. Liberals are even more enthusiastic for a Democratic candidate, at 64%.

4. Issues Resonating with Voters
The June 2018 Pew Research Center poll found 68% of registered voters said an important influence on their vote is which party will control Congress, which is the largest percentage since 1998.
Registered voters also indicated their opinion of President Trump will be a major factor of their votes, which is more than any president for more than 30 years, with 34% saying their Congressional vote will be a vote against Trump and 26% for Trump.
Among registered voters who are Democrats and those who lean Democratic, 80% said sexual assault and harassment was a very important issue for the country. The top issue among Republicans and lean Republican was negotiations with North Korea, at 75%.

5. Millennials’ Midterms Mayhem
Various polls reveal significant disparities about the likelihood of Millennials voting during the midterm elections. Of the more than 4,700 adults 18–34 who responded to a February SurveyMonkey poll, 68% said they absolutely or probably would vote.
A late May 2017 survey from AP-NORC and MTV found 56% of Millennials rated the likelihood of them voting a 6 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 “certain to vote” while 32% said they were absolutely certain to vote.
An even more recent poll (June 2018) from the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic revealed 28% of adults 18–29 were absolutely certain they would vote.

6. Women Standing Tall
According to 2017 Nielsen/Scarborough research, the percentage of female voters who say they always vote in statewide elections increased 9.6% from 2014 to 2017, reaching 53%. It was 58% for college-educated women, a 4.7% increase for the same period.
Among Millennial women, 35% always vote in statewide elections, a 9.3% increase from 2014, and 41% of Latina American women, a 6.5% increase.
The research also revealed that television was the most-effective medium to reach college- educated women and Latina Americans, as they spend 4 hours, 46 min. and 4 hours, 5 min., respectively, watching TV while Millennial women spend 3 hours, 22 min.

7. Voters Care About Health Care
The Kaiser Family Foundation’s April Kaiser Health Tracking Poll found health care continued to be one of the most important issues among all adults polled, at 24%, with only the economy/jobs exceeded it, at 25%.
Among those adults responding to the poll who are registered voters, health care was also a most important issue, at 30%, but second to gun policy, at 35%.
Health care costs, at 38%, was the #1 specific reason adults said health care was the most important or very important issue for candidates to address, with increasing access/decreasing number of uninsured and universal coverage, both second, at 12%.

8. Advertising Strategies
To maintain and even increase voters’ enthusiasm for the midterm elections, recommend that candidates’ TV commercials include footage of enthusiastic crowds at their rallies and one or more quick inserts of individual voter’s statements about his or her enthusiasm.
If your station is in one of the 5 states (Minnesota, Pennsylvania, California, Texas and Florida) expected to receive the most ad dollars from parties and PACs’ coffers, then aggressively negotiate for a greater share than maybe you expected.
Share with candidates’ media directors the Nielsen/Scarborough data at the top of page 3 of the Profiler about how much time college- education women and Latina women spend watching TV, so directors will spend more on your station to reach these critical voters.

9. New Media Strategies
Voters’ indication in the Knight Family Foundation of the importance of health care as a campaign issue, specifically the reasons, should provide candidates with multiple topics for short videos and/or voter testimonials about those reasons for social media posting.
Maximizing the Millennial turnout is very important, especially for Democrats, so those candidates should consider a series of short videos featuring enthusiastic local Millennials explaining to their peers why they should vote.
The Consumer Research Around Cannabis data suggests this is a hot-button issue, which candidates can use to maximize turnout with polls and short videos, especially in states where there is active legislative and governmental support for either type of legalization.