1. Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
Patrick van der Duin, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands
Tobias Heger, Technische Universitaet Berlin, Germany
Maximilian Schlesinger, EICT GmbH, Germany

2. Linkage of futures research with innovation
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
Linkage of futures research with innovation
Futures research and innovation are two sides of the same coin.
Quite a lot of research on the linkages between futures research and innovation:
Use of methods (Van der Duin, 2006)
Organization of ‘technology intelligence processes’ (Lichtenthaler, 2007)
Foresight influencing innovative capabilities (Rohrbeck & Gemunden, 2010)
However:
rise of ‘innovation systems’ and ‘open innovation’ approaches
what does that mean for the use of futures research in innovation systems or ‘open innovation’?

3. Innovation systems / ‘open innovation’
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
Innovation systems / ‘open innovation’
Looking for suitable models
‘Triple helix model’:
rather simplistic, no explicit linkage with the future
‘Regime approach of innovation systems’
(also) no explicit linkage with the future, no actor-perspective
‘Functions of innovation systems’-approach:
focus on future development, but no actor perspective
the ‘Cyclic Innovation Model’:
explicit linkage with future, and actor perspective

4. The ‘Cyclic Innovation Model’ (CIM): level 1
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
The ‘Cyclic Innovation Model’ (CIM): level 1

5. The ‘Cyclic Innovation Model’ (CIM): level 2 (process model)
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
The ‘Cyclic Innovation Model’ (CIM): level 2 (process model)
scientific exploration
market transitions
entrepreneurship
product creation
technical-oriented sciences cycle
integrated engineering cycle
differentiated service cycle
social-oriented sciences cycle
technological
research
hard knowledge infrastructure
manufacturing and processing industry
public and private service sector
soft knowledge infrastructure

6. Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
Three cases:
EICT:
Public-private partnerships of industrial companies, institutes of applied and scientific institutions
Linking R&D-activities on ICT
EIT ICT Labs:
Consortium of partners from academia, industry and research institutes
Focused on solving the European Innovation Paradox’
‘Rijkswaterstaat’:
Joint Innovation programme ‘Rijkswaterstaat’ and ‘Deltares’
Finding truly new solutions to cope with rising sea levels

7. Analysis of ‘Rijkswaterstaat’ & ‘Deltares’ :
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
Analysis of ‘Rijkswaterstaat’ & ‘Deltares’ :
No consensus
Only if it is really new
Not formalized/explicit
Not so ‘open’ (trends & partners), managing political context

8. Cross-case analysis (1):
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
Cross-case analysis (1):
Stage 1: EICT
Stage 2: EIT ICT Labs
Stage 3: Rijkswaterstaat

9. Cross case analysis (2):
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
Cross case analysis (2):
Stage 1: Strategic (EICT)
Stage 2: Tactical (EIT ICT Labs)
Stage 3: Operational (‘Rijkswaterstaat’ )
‘Transition path’ to a complete CIM (ensuring feedback mechanisms); different levels of ‘development’
Leadership is different in the thee stages:
Stage 1: bringing together and convincing
Stage 2: converting good intentions into a working plan
Stage 3: operational responsibility, linking each part of the framework

10. Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems
Further research:
Much more emphasis on inter-organizational processes (by ‘in-depth case
Incorporating level 2 of CIM: four knowledge cycles as specified framework for future-innovation linkage
Testing to what extent conclusions for use of futures research within a single organisation also hold for futures research within an innovation system (‘open innovation’)