1. The potential economic impact of CMD on livelihoods and value chains in Southeast Asia
Phnom Penh, 18th September 2018
Regional CMD

2. Introduction
As we work through the different scales, consider what a major disease outbreak mean for various stakeholders in the cassava value chain.
The global market and trade
Local processors and national exports
Rural Livelihoods
Cassava farmers and processors in Asia are involved in a constant battle to be competitive VS

3. On the demand side – the market outlook for cassava in Asia needs to be considered in the context of substitutes in different applications
Cassava for direct consumption or sale into short value chains as fresh roots for food. Competition with other food such as rice based on price and consumer preferences.
Global markets where cassava chips compete with other forms of carbohydrate for processing animal feed or ethanol such as maize, sorghum, wheat, molasses – oil, gas.
Markets where cassava starch competes largely on price with substitutes such as maize and potato starch, sugarcane.
Markets where the functional properties of the starch are desired. Consumer preferences, clean label segment, gluten free etc.

4. Changes in costs of production Long term climate trends
And on the supply side – the relative competitiveness against other land use in the context of different trends and shocks
Own price and relative prices to other commodities that can be produced in agroecological zones
Changes in costs of production
Changing labour costs and ease of mechanization
Long term climate trends
Changes in land suitability and land degradation
Floods and droughts
IMPACT OF PEST AND DISEASE

5. Thai starch price 2006 - 2018 Reduction in planted area
Flooding in Thailand
Maize price in China
DISEASE ?
Cassava Mealybug
Maize policy reform

6. Value of cassava trade and relative importance of cassava starch in global trade
Global trade largely is Southeast Asia exporting to East Asia and Southeast Asia
Source: Comtrade

7. The regional value chain for cassava products involves large amounts of cross border trade

8. Cumulative monthly exports from Thailand (Value)
Dried chips
0.5% value
27% volume
Starch
25% value
15% volume

9. Cumulative monthly exports from Vietnam (Value)
Dried chips
31% value
47% volume
Starch
13% value
24% volume

10. Cumulative monthly value of imports from Cambodia
(fresh or dried)
Thailand
2017 = million USD
Vietnam
2017 = million USD
30% value
37% volume
50% value

11. Comparison between Thai and Indonesian prices
Starch
Fresh roots

12. Cumulative monthly exports from Thailand and Vietnam to Indonesia (million USD)

13. Difference in Thai cassava and US maize starch
2012
2018
Cassava starch has again become a relatively more expensive native starch for modification and deep processing
Eg. Manufacture of sweeteners
Short term options for Indonesian deep processors to remain competitive
Use alternative feed stock (maize)
Import processed products (glucose etc.).

14. Biofuel prices and root equivalent price

15. Smallholder livelihood outcomes impacted by these global market
trends and shocks

17. Grown by upland farmers to support livelihood security (Eastern Cambodia)
Gross total income
% share of total income
% share of cash income

18. Grown by upland farmers to support livelihood security (Lao PDR)
Gross total income
% share of total income
% share of cash income
20m Kip = $2350 USD

19. Grown by upland farmers to support livelihood security (DakLak Province - Vietnam)
Gross total income
% share of cash income
40m Kip = $1745 USD
Sugarcane
Marginal land &
Limited resources

20. Large price uncertainly - Fresh root prices at collection points & factory
30% SC
30% SC
Farm gate = $28
25% SC
CIAT

21. Adding another level of production risk from emerging pest and disease will significant impacts rural livelihoods, industry and national economies

22. Participatory budgeting and scenario analysis in Lao PDR
Price (THB/kg)
Yield (t/ha)
0.9
1.6 2 15
,650
,150
850 20
,150
2,850
10,850 25
,650
20,850 35
2,350
26,850
40,850
~$650USD/ha returns to
household owned resources
Price (THB/kg)
Yield (t/ha)
0.9
1.6 2 15
78.3
195.0
261.7 20
128.3
283.9
372.8 25
178.3
483.9 35
278.3
550.6
706.1
Shadow wage rate = 220

23. Cassava witches broom disease

24. Cassava witches broom in variety evaluations
KU50
Rayong11

25. Cassava witches broom disease impact on starch yield

26. Cassava witches broom in fertiliser demonstrations

27. Cassava witches broom disease impact on MRR to fertiliser
500%

28. 2016-17 PVS trials became infected in Cambodia
2 sites in same village; RCB with 3 replications
Farmers own variety is assumed to have been infected prior to establishment with surrounding fields also infected.
DNA finger printing showed variety was KM419 officially released in Vietnam in 2013
Visual inspection of every plant occurred (May 2017)
Samples collected and sent for PCR analysis
Second round of visual inspection carried out (Nov 2017)

29. Percentage of plants without visible symptoms
Variety
Infection rate (%)
Asymptom rate
(% of infected)
Location 1
Location 2
Huay Bong 60
6.7
0.0
100
KM98-1
5.6
KU50
Farmer's Local Variety
76.7
88.9
26.1
20.0
Rayong 72
43.3
61.1
84.6
81.8
SC8
16.7
27.8
80.0
60.0
SC9
66.7
40.0
58.3
Asymptomatic plants
SC8/SC9 showed high levels symptoms by November 2017
Rayong 72 was still not showing high levels of symptoms by the second inspection despite high levels indicated with PCR
* DNA fingerprinting suggest SC8 and SC9 in the trial were the same variety.

30. 50m apart
KU50
Rayong 11
SC8
HuayBong60
KM98-1
Rayong 72

32. Conclusion
For many applications cassava needs to compete in a global carbohydrate market
Field level productivity is important to ensure this can happen further down the value chain
The cassava producing countries in mainland Southeast Asia are strongly linked in both the value chain for outputs (roots, chips, starch) and inputs (planting material, fertiliser, labour)
Market and production risk contribute to the vulnerability of smallholder cassava farmers in Asia – debt, distressed land sales, migration by necessity, and other undesirable livelihood choices

33. Conclusion
The addition of disease pressure will impact the competitiveness of smallholder cassava farmers in the global carbohydrate market
The poorest households in communities are the most reliant on cassava for their livelihoods and the less able to quickly adapt their livelihood portfolio in the face of new constraints.
Shocks in smallholder livelihoods are deep and long lasting.

34. ACIAR Cassava Value Chain and Livelihood Program
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35. Thank you!