1. Hydrological Forecasting Service
in the Czech Republic during flood in June 2013
Tomas Vlasak

2. Division of Meteorology & Climatology
Central Forecasting Office
Meteorological
Forecasting Dept.
Hydrological
Forecasting Dept.
Field
Hydrology
Gauge
Maintenance
Applied Research Dept.
MFD
HFD
Regional Forecasting Offices
Division of
Hydrology
Regional Offices

3. Flood in June 2013
CAUSE:
low pressure formation travelling from the Mediterranean to the north east across central Europe
very intensive rain (> 100mm /24h) in narrow strip with lots of storms
high soil saturation
RESULT:
100-year flood exceeded in 12 hydrological sites
15 casualties
EUR economic losses
Reccurence interval for
hydrological response
24h rainfal [mm]

4. strong underestimation of QPF
Flood in June 2013
strong underestimation of QPF
missing signal of rainfall extremity (available NWM, precipitation ensembles)
QPF 24-hours sum (0 to 24h) lead time
observed 24h rainfall sum

5. Flood in June 2013
underestimation of rainfall-runoff model

6. Flood in June 2013
underestimation of the rainfall-runoff model
better results in large-scale water basins with longer travel time of water

7. Satisfying lead-time of the first flood warning
Flood in June 2013
Satisfying lead-time of the first flood warning
Strong underestimation of flood severity
Flooding released :30)
Flood warning released :00)
Flood watch (released :00)
Flood watch (released :00)

8. Thank you for your attention

9. Flood risk x flood hazard
flood occurrence probability of 3rd flood stage (flooding)