1. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 2005 AND BEYOND
October 27, 2004
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 2005 AND BEYOND By
JEFFREY E. GARTEN
DEAN, YALE SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT

2. INTRODUCTION
PROSPECTS FOR 2005
KEY THEMES FOR THE FUTURE

3. PROSPECTS FOR 2005
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
KEY COUNTRIES
WILD CARDS

4. CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
LOW INFLATION
REBOUNDING MARKETS
EXPANDING TRADE

5. KEY COUNTRIES/REGIONS
U.S.
JAPAN
CHINA
EUROPEAN UNION
RUSSIA

6. WILD CARDS END OF U.S. STIMULUS HARD LANDING IN CHINA
SOARING OIL PRICES
GEOPOLITICAL SET BACK

7. SIX KEY THEMES HUGE ECONOMIC IMBALANCES THE RISE OF CHINA AND INDIA
THE DECLINE OF EUROPE

8. SIX KEY THEMES THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA
THE PRICE AND AVAILABILITY OF ENERGY
THE MANAGEMENT OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

9. HUGE ECONOMIC IMBALANCES
AMERICAN DEFICITS
ASIAN SURPLUSES
FINANCIAL DANGERS

10. THE RISE OF CHINA AND INDIA
ECONOMIC TRENDS
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD
POLICY ALTERNATIVES

11. THE DECLINE OF EUROPE
REASONS WHY…
IMPLICATIONS
WHAT CAN BE DONE?

12. THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA DEMOCRACY AND CAPITALISM TOGETHER? PETRO-STATE ?
GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND COMPETITION

13. OIL PRICE AND AVAILABILITY
A NEW PLATEAU ?
THE POLICY ALTERNATIVES
ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

14. THE MANAGEMENT OF WORLD ECONOMY
GLOBALIZATION OR FRAGMENTATION?
FUTURE OF FREE TRADE
FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
WHO IS IN CHARGE?

15. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 2005 AND BEYOND
October 27, 2004
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 2005 AND BEYOND By
JEFFREY E. GARTEN
DEAN, YALE SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT