1. Secession and Irridentism

2. Difference of focus:
1.      Identity (Ethnic, national, state) level
2.      Cultural nationalism (voluntary associations, religion, civil society)
3.      Political mobilization: parties
4.      Political action: Timing, strategy, tactics, violence question.
5.      Role of International Context becomes Important as a constraining or enabling factor. (Resources, Recognition, Military opposition or support)

4. Secession and Self-Determination
Multi-ethnic States
Separatism vs Self-determination
Former need not imply a desire to break free:
Federalism - group representation at institutions of centre; power to federal unit
Devolution of powers: legislature, symbols/culture, taxation, military
Self-Determination aims not inevitable (60% of 285); Violent rebellion even less so (25% of self-determination cases)

5. Nationalism and Secession
Role of ideology of nationalism
Culture and politics should be congruent
'Foreign' rule illegitimate
Separate state within an international system of states
Trappings of state
'Copycat' contagion effect in 'waves'

6. Nations and Secession Primary ethnic groups rather than secondary
Integration often prelude to agitation, as ethnie becomes nation
Fewer attempts at secession prior to the modern period
More 'backward' secessionists often suffer more splinter movements

7. Horowitz' Theory (1985)
Domestic forces key in fomenting separatism (ethnic conflict, etc)
International forces key in success
Tactics influences policy positions of rebels, affecting claims - whether of outright statehood or autonomy (Kurds, KLA, Sinn Fein)
Poor regions secede more often, but no hard and fast correlation

8. Horowitz II
Confluence of region and group advancedness/backwardness conditions secession
Role of precipitants
Conflicts with advanced seceders more clear-cut

10. The Role of Economic Motives
Advanced look at contribution, Backward look at GNP inequity
Instrumentalist view
Older view: 'internal colonialism' (Nairn) favours poorer
Recent approach: ethnic entrepreneurialism, favours better off (Hechter)
Possibility: money counts, so advanced groups secede from poorer, while backward groups think they can do better

12. Ethno-Symbolist View Role of symbolic conflicts (Horowitz)
Katanga secession splits into N and S movements
Lunda/Bayeke vs Baluba

13. New Quantitative Research
New Quantitative studies based on large datasets and statistical techniques (esp. MAR dataset)
Coding is a weak spot
Statistical problems due to chicken-egg problems and lack of good time-series
Many missing variables
Can state the obvious

14. Factors Causing Self-Determination Movements (Gurr & Quinn 2003)
Major Factors:
Group Organisation & Cohesion (membership of groups & mobilisation)
Change in Communication Technology (landline growth)
Minor Factors
Demographic Stress
Geographic Concentration
Separatist Kin
Political Discrimination (-)

16. Factors Causing Secession (Ayres & Saideman 2000)
Group Geographic Concentration
Separatist Kin
Contagion from regional protest movements
Tenuous link to Gurr study through importance of compact, mobilised base and separatist kin
Points to role of primary ethnicity rather than secondary
Horowitz' factors more central when it comes to violence

18. Irridentism Irridentism: unredeemed
Irredentism involves a kind of separation, but there may be no desire for subunit to join with irridentist state
Types:
ethno-historical
geo-political (Falkland Is.; Ceuta)
historical-suzerainty (W. Sahara, W. Irian, Tibet)

19. Irridentism
Irredentists less likely to press claims if they feel they'll wind up in a more hostile state
Irridentism more likely if ethnic kin are engaged in separatism or dominate a nearby state (Saideman/Ayres 2000)

21. Ethnie versus Nation
Secession raises theoretical question about pull of ethnicity versus 'artificial' nations (esp. Africa)
Ethnic nationalism usually drives secession, but not always. Can be political, regional (Confederacy, Venezuela, Eritrea) Or partly both (Vojvodina)

22. Instrumentalist Perspective
Instrumentalists look to institutional (Brubaker 1996) or interest-based (Hechter, Breuilly, Gellner) explanations for minority secession
Power vacuum, weakening of established parties (i.e. ex-USSR)
Monetary gain (i.e. Biafra, Scotland)

23. Ethno-Symbolist & Primordialist Perspectives
Ethno-symbolists emphasise 'blueprint' of ethnic group myths, mental maps and memories
Ethnic groups will be more emotionally resonant than state
Secession likely if practical conditions allow, especially under impetus of nationalist ideology
Primordialists: relatedness conditions trust, but unclear where boundaries will fall. More and more difficult as governing unit grows

24. Conclusion
When nationalists turns to concrete politico-territorial goals, self-determination is the quest
Self-Determination aims not inevitable ; Violent rebellion even less so
Factors related to a group's degree of integration are central (geographical compactness, communication, mobilisation by associations)

25. Conclusion…
Grievances play more of a role in violence than mere nationalist self-determination
Evidence does not support instrumentalist explanations for nationalist self-determination, though poverty related to levels of violent conflict
Some aspects support modernist account (i.e. integration as key), others favour ethno-symbolists (i.e. lost autonomy, separatist kin)