1. The future of warfare and implications for civil military cooperation and humantarian space
Peter Viggo Jakobsen
Royal Danish Defence College
Danish Health Network Seminar, 11 December 2013

2. The future = recent past
No new Iraqs or Afghanistans in the decade ahead

3. The future = recent past
Anti-piracy, air campaigns, capacity building and use of special forces

4. Drivers shaping future wars
US military dominance
Nuclear mutual assured destruction
Economic interdependence
 No great power wars

5. Drivers shaping future wars
State failure  internal wars

6. Future conflict management
Lower Western ambitions and fewer troops
BRICS military involvement will remain limited

7. Implications for humanitarian space?
+ Humanitarian organisations less likely to be asked to work as part of integrated approaches

8. Implications for civil-military cooperation
÷ Inadequate military presence and security (DRC) the norm  Humanitarian organisations must negotiate security and access

9. Implications for humanitarian space
Humantarian workers less targeted?

10. Implications for humanitarian space
Targeting driven by need and ideology (anti-West) in existential conflicts likely to fall
Targeting driven by greed likely to remain

11. Implications for humanitarian space
÷ Greater risk of future Syrias and Rwandas