1. Forecast Verification
Working group on Extended Range Prediction
Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

2. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala
Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013
Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013
Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11 member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final forecasted onset date.
Y axis on each panel is in mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for 850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset date and also written at the top of each panel
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

3. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
NCEP/TRMM
Analysis
Wind (850hPa)
and R/F
Verification
F/C from
16May IC
F/C from
16May IC
CFSv2
GFSbc
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

4. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
NCEP/TRMM
Analysis
Wind (850hPa)
and R/F
Verification
F/C from
26May IC
F/C from
26May IC
CFSv2
GFSbc
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

5. Spatial pentad mean pattern
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

6. Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 1-5 June, 2013
Actual
Anomaly
Forecast valid for
Period 1-5 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 31May
P2-lead, IC 26May
P3-lead, IC 21May
P4-lead, IC 16May
CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

7. Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 6-10 June, 2013
Actual
Anomaly
Forecast valid for
Period 6-10 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 05 Jun
P2-lead, IC 31May
P3-lead, IC 26May
P4-lead, IC 21May
CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 7

8. Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 11-15 June, 2013
Actual
Anomaly
Forecast valid for
Period June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 10 Jun
P2-lead, IC 05 Jun
P3-lead, IC 31May
P4-lead, IC 26May
CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 8

9. Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 16-20 June, 2013
Actual
Anomaly
Forecast valid for
Period June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 15 Jun
P2-lead, IC 10 Jun
P3-lead, IC 05 Jun
P4-lead, IC 31May
CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 9

10. Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 21-25 June, 2013
Actual
Anomaly
Forecast valid for
Period June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 20 Jun
P2-lead, IC 15 Jun
P3-lead, IC 10 Jun
P4-lead, IC 05 Jun
CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 10

11. Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 26-30 June, 2013
Actual
Anomaly
Forecast valid for
Period June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 25 Jun
P2-lead, IC 20 Jun
P3-lead, IC 15 Jun
P4-lead, IC 10 Jun
CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 11

12. Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 1-5 July, 2013
Actual
Anomaly
Forecast valid for
Period 1-5 July, 2013
P1-lead, IC 30 Jun
P2-lead, IC 25 Jun
P3-lead, IC 20 Jun
P4-lead, IC 15 Jun
CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

13. Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 6-10 July, 2013
Actual
Anomaly
Forecast valid for
Period 6-10 July, 2013
P1-lead, IC 5 July
P2-lead, IC 30 Jun
P3-lead, IC 25 Jun
P4-lead, IC 20 Jun
CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc
7/11/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

14. CFS-GFS Forecast Verification Over Homogenous Regions
MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

15. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
CFS, CEI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

16. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
GFSbc, CEI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

17. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
CFS, MZI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

18. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
GFSbc, MZI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

19. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
CFS, NEI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

20. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
GFSbc, NEI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

21. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
CFS, NWI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

22. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
GFSbc, NWI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

23. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
CFS, SPI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

24. SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP
GFSbc, SPI
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

25. MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS
16 May IC
21 May IC
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

26. MISO F/C verification For 25 Days
26 May IC
31 May IC
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

27. MISO F/C verification For 25 Days
5 Jun IC
10 Jun IC
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

28. MISO F/C verification For 25 Days
20 Jun IC
15 Jun IC
(OBS is for 20 days only)
7/6/2013
SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP