1. Assistant Professor & Extension Economist
ACRE Update
Dr. Jody Campiche
Assistant Professor & Extension Economist
Agricultural Policy

2. 2009 ACRE Payment $95 million in ACRE payments to Oklahoma producers
(starting in November 2010)

3. 2009 ACRE Payment Rates

4. 2009 ACRE Crops Planted on ACRE Farms
Acres
Barley
716
Canola
7,478
Corn
97,449
Cotton
2,254
Grain Sorghum
48,222
Minor Oilseeds
2,497
Oats
2,664
Peanuts
185
Pulse Crops
430
Soybeans
50,356
Wheat
2,381,326

5. 2009 ACRE Payment

6. 2009 OK ACRE Payments County Contracts $millions Garfield 10.5% $10.2
Kingfisher 7.3% $6.5
Blaine % $4.9
Canadian % $4.3
Caddo % $2.8
Washita % $4.0
Grant % $4.5
Alfalfa % $4.9
Woods % $4.0
Major % $3.4
Noble % $2.8
Dewey % $2.6
Cimarron % $4.9
Cotton % $2.6
Kiowa % $3.2
Texas % $4.5
Jackson % $2.8
Kay % $2.5
Custer % $2.8
Red Circle - > $1.6 million Green Circle - $1 - $1.5 million Blue Circle - $100K - $650K No Circle - < $100K

7. 2010 ACRE Enrollment Low enrollment for 2010
2009: 12,233 farms (24.88% of total farms)
2010: 12,402 farms (24.98% of total farms)
169 farms in 2010

8. 2010 Estimated ACRE Payment Rates
Based on current price estimates, the only crop that may have a 2010 ACRE payment is oats ($3.50/acre)
2010/11 marketing year average prices are not final for any crops…

9. 2011 ACRE Payment May be a good option for Oklahoma wheat producers
Deadline is June 1, 2011 (for producers who did not enroll in 2009 or 2010)
2011 OK wheat yield forecast – 20.5 bu/acre

10. 2011 Wheat ACRE Payment
Unknown factor: 2011/12 national average marketing year price
May be higher than in recent years due to conditions in the U.S. and world wheat markets
Forecast: $ /bu

11. 2011 Wheat ACRE Payment ACRE Guarantee $187 $151
The low 2011 State yield may lead to a high ACRE payment
We have a different situation than in 2009
ACRE guarantee was higher in 2009
Benchmark state yield was higher
Previous 2 year national average marketing year prices were higher
2009 marketing year average price was lower  
ACRE Guarantee $187 $151                       
     Guarantee Price $6.63 $5.24
Benchmark State Yield 31 bu/acre 27.5 bu/acre
     National Avg marketing year price $4.87 $6.50-$7.25
     State Yield bu/acre 20.5 bu/acre

12. 2011 Wheat ACRE Payment
Producers could still get a 2011 ACRE payment if the yield is low enough (and the price doesn’t go much higher than $6.50)
Price
$6.00
$6.50
$6.75
$7.00
$7.25
ACRE Payment
$36/acre
$24/acre
$17/acre
$10/acre
$4/acre

13. 2011 Wheat ACRE Payment Wheat Direct Payment Loss in Direct Payment
20% * $15 = $3/acre * 2 (2011 & 2012) = $6/acre

14. 2011 Cotton ACRE Payment

15. 2011 Cotton ACRE Payment

16. 2011 Cotton ACRE Payment 2011 ACRE Guarantee Price: $.727
(average of $0.629 & $0.825)
2011/12 Actual Price: ?

17. What does this mean for an ACRE payment?
The ACRE payment is based on a moving average price
The high 2010 price will increase the ACRE guarantee for 2011
A high 2011 price will increase the guarantee for 2012
If the price drops for the 2012 marketing year, the revenue guarantee will be higher than the actual revenue

18. What does this mean for an ACRE payment?
2009 Actual Price: $0.629
2010 ACRE Guarantee: $ (I) $ (NI)
Actual Price: $0.825
2011 ACRE Guarantee: $ (I) $ (NI)
2012 ACRE Guarantee: $ (I) $ (NI)

19. Questions? Jody Campiche 528 Ag Hall Stillwater, OK 74078
Ag Policy Newsletter
ACRE newsletter will be posted after the latest USDA 2011/12 price forecast is published tomorrow (May 12)
ACRE Decision Tool