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María I. Travasso (INTA)

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Presentation on theme: "María I. Travasso (INTA)"— Presentation transcript:

1 María I. Travasso (INTA)
Expected impacts of climate change on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay LA27 María I. Travasso (INTA)

2 Climate Scenarios (30-60,70-00, LARS, HADLEY) DSSAT CROPS YIELD
CENTURY PASTURES DSSAT CROPS YIELD

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 Relative Yield Changes
Water Limited Potential Mz Sb Wh AZ LARS 7 17 -5 -1 -8 -19 HAD -2 -6 -3 PE 12 28 -11 -4 -10 -7 TR 33 43 3 -12 1 SR 15 19 5 11 PI 9 27 - -13 -17 PF 10 25 -16 LE 37 34 -9 -25

10 Mean Crop Yields Potential Water Limited

11 Potential Conditions

12 Projected Changes in Temperature
Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature

13 Changes (days) in Crops Growing Season

14 Water Limited Conditions

15 Projected Changes in Precipitation

16 MAIZE YIELD WL S. ROSA PERGAMINO ESTANZUELA P. FUNDO
LARS HAD

17 SOYBEAN YIELD WL S. ROSA PERGAMINO P. FUNDO ESTANZUELA
LARS HAD

18 WHEAT YIELD WL S. ROSA PERGAMINO P. FUNDO ESTANZUELA
LARS HAD

19 INCREASING CO2 > RUE > WUE > YIELDS

20 Increasing CO2

21 % YIELD CHANGES WHEAT MAIZE SOYBEAN

22 PASTURES

23 CENTURY Especially developed to deal with a wide range of cropping system rotations and tillage practices for system analysis of the effects of management and global change on productivity and sustainability of agroecosystems. This model integrates the effects of climate and soil driving variables and agricultural management to simulate carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics in the soil-plant system. Simulation of complex agricultural management systems including crop rotations, tillage practices, fertilization, irrigation, grazing, and harvest methods.

24 TESTING CENTURY IN URUGUAY

25

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