1. Explaining Terciles a brief illustration

2. Imagine two places that are near each other and receive amounts of rainfall that are roughly correlated, even though in any given year Place 2 is usually wetter than Place 1.

7. Below Normal
Near Normal
Above Normal

8. mm of Rain

9. The wettest ten years from the data fall in the above normal tercile.
mm of Rain

10. The wettest ten years from the data fall in the above normal tercile.
mm of Rain
The driest ten years from the data fall in the below normal tercile.

11. The wettest ten years from the data fall in the above normal tercile.
The middle ten years from the data fall in the near normal tercile.
mm of Rain
The driest ten years from the data fall in the below normal tercile.

12. For each place we can see a range of rainfall amounts corresponding to each tercile.
mm of Rain

13. For each place we can see a range of rainfall amounts corresponding to each tercile.
mm of Rain

14. For each place we can see a range of rainfall amounts corresponding to each tercile.
mm of Rain

15. For each place we can see a range of rainfall amounts corresponding to each tercile.
mm of Rain 35
percent chance of receiving >445mm in place 1, and >470mm in place 2. 40
percent chance of receiving mm in place 1, and mm in place 2. 25
percent chance of receiving <346mm in place 1, and <368 in place 2.