1. The Rate of Change is Changing
Emerging Technologies Beyond Government Control
SENEDIA Tech Talk Newport, RI June 22, 2017
Nevin Carr
Rear Admiral, US Navy (Ret)
Senior Vice President

2. Trend: U.S. Defense Investment (RDT&E + Procurement)
FY13 $B
300
-43%
250
-51%
-50%
200
150
100
Long-term trend line – real growth rate of 1% 50
Past
Future
FY50
FY60
FY70
FY80
FY90
FY00
FY10
FY20
Peak-to-peak cycle time
18 years
22 years
MIL-ZZN E-53514/DF

3. Trend: Smaller Numbers of Expensive, Specialized Systems
NKC-AAA
Trend: Smaller Numbers of Expensive, Specialized Systems
Inventory
Investment
USN Investment vs active ship inventory1
Ships FY13 $B
USAF Investment vs active aircraft inventory2
Aircraft FY13 $B 80
100 80 60 60 40 40 20 20
1 Includes active battleships, carriers, cruisers, destroyers, frigates, LCS, submarines, command ships, mine warfare ships, patrol ships, amphibious ships and auxiliary ships
2 Includes active USAF bombers, fighter / attack aircraft, reconnaissance aircraft, tankers, transports, trainers, search and rescue aircraft, liaison aircraft, special research aircraft and utility / observation / other aircraft
SOURCE: FY2013 Green Book, Naval History and Heritage Command, Mitchell Institute

4. SOURCE: National Science Foundation

6. The Gartner “Hype Cycle”