1. Illinois Model User Group Meeting November 8, 2018
Phillip J. Mescher, AICP, CPM
Iowa Department of Transportation
Office of Systems Planning
Ames, Iowa

2. Goals Develop model standards and expectations
Establish Consistency among models
Enhance Model Components
Publish Model Policy and Procedure Manual
Enhance DOT travel demand modeling assistance to Iowa’s 9 MPOs
MTMUG guide standards development

3. Iowa Modeling History 1960’s & 1970’s 1980’s & 1990’s 1990’s to 2010’s
DOT Responsible
Mainframe Computer
Planpac
1980’s & 1990’s
MPOs Responsible
Desktop Computers and Software
Tranplan & QRS II
1990’s to 2010’s
DOT providing more assistance and responsibility

4. What is happening? MPO modeling staff turnover
MPO model staff are now all junior level as best
DOT continual training and retaining of staff
Causes? Pay, other opportunities, steep learning curve, etc.
Takes a couple of years modeling to become proficient
DOT not immune!
Dramatic Increase in Demands on MPO staff
LRTP, TIP, UPWP, PPP, CMP, Transit, Safety, Modeling, etc.
MAP-21 Performance Measures
Models at times put on “back-burner”
In no time the MPO is behind the 8 ball on time

5. What is happening? Iowa DOT Assistance to MPOs Modeler Training MTMUG
Model Rebuild
Model Calibration/Validation
Model Scenario Runs
LRTP
Corridor Projects
Consistent Software – TransCAD (DOT subsidized)
Peer Exchanges
Hosting NHI Travel Modeling Class

6. What is happening? DOT has limitations also Consultant Assistance
Staffing given workload requests
DOT has staff turnover at times but fairly stable (until recently)
Need more expertise in Transit mode share, TOD models, survey data processing, etc.
Mesoscopic and Microscopic modeling
Consultant Assistance
At times MPOs have hired consultants to help with their modeling (and LRTPs)
No standards to follow
Results in lack of consistency among models
DOT is left to answer the questions about inconsistency

7. NCHRP Report 288 Report Conclusion:
Report 288 highlights the fact that policy makers must have the ability to make informed decisions about future investments and public policies for the transportation system.
Based on the investigation of the 288 committee, it was determined the current models and modeling practice is not adequate for many of the tasks to which they are being applied.
They recommend that steps must be taken to improve current and future practice in metropolitan travel forecasting.
Report Conclusion:
More state support to modeling is needed.

8. What is happening?
Several States getting more involved to help MPOs and provide an architecture for standardization.
Florida
Wisconsin
Texas
Virginia
Iowa
Etc.
Traffic forecasts are critical to designing projects.

9. ISMS
A standardized model structure to promote a certain level of consistency while allowing for flexibility
Not all MPOs are the same; even in Iowa
Consistency leads to enhanced credibility
Provision of continuing model development, training and application support
Many states are enacting this approach to modeling to ensure model credibility and consistency

10. Mission Statement
Provide a consistent, comprehensive and standardized framework of best practices for the development and application of travel demand modeling and traffic forecasting tools. The tools will facilitate collaborative use in planning and designing transportation systems and facilities for the State of Iowa, promote sharing, and encourage continuing cooperation and good practice across the state.

11. Who’s Been Involved? We are embracing the 3C Planning Process
We’ve included:
FHWA (Best Practice)
Midwest Travel Model User Group
Iowa DOT Modeling Team
HNTB Consulting Engineers
Michael Baker International
Howard R. Green
Iowa MPOs
Wisconsin DOT
Nebraska DOT

12. MTMUG Modeler Survey
We developed a survey for all Iowa MPO modelers, DOT staff and consultants

13. MTMUG Modeler Survey Additional questions touched on:
Model understanding and proficiency.
Identification of problems encountered working with model.
Asked for perspective of their agency role in modeling
How do they develop and analyze projects for LRTP?
How do they use model for project development?
How often is model updated?
How would they like to use the model in the future?
Etc.

14. Goals of ISMS
Based on current and best practices and Iowa TDM user Survey:
Institutionalize the use of TDM’s in the MPO planning and prioritization processes;
Increase technical capabilities and understanding of MPO staff with respect to TDM development and application;
Develop clear guidance and expectations with respect to the roles and responsibilities of travel demand modelers;
Achieve a consistent approach to travel demand modeling across the state of Iowa’s 9 MPOs; and
Implement ongoing development and maintenance practices to ensure continual readiness and currency of MPO TDM’s.

15. Policies and Procedures
Iowa Modeling Policy & Procedure Manual
Lays out model structure, protocols, procedures
Model version management
SE Data Forecast Process/Review
Identifies Input Data
Integration with Iowa Statewide Model (External Analysis)
Determines Model Validation Expectations
Describes Best Practices
Coordination with Iowa DOT
Guidance on Model Application for Projects and LRTP
Project Wise for File Keeping

16. Model Process Flow Chart

17. Prototype Model (Ames)
Test model developed using the Ames model
TransCAD platform
Includes
Time of day
Transit
Robust Network for Highway and Transit
Intersection control attributes
Parking allocation
Parcel Based Trip Generation
Income stratification
Land use specific
Gravity Model
Capacity Based Traffic Assignment

18. Parcel Based Trip Generation
Trip Generation Weak Point in Most Models
Data Quality!
Census Based pretty good
Employment – not so much
IWD Story
Infogroup Story
NCHRP 08-36/Task 127 Employment Data
Parcel Based – Data Quality

19. Parcel Data
GIS layer with data pertaining to size and use of buildings on parcel.
Characteristics of each land use explicitly modeled including trip rates, income splits, time of day.
Used in lieu of employment data.
Will require coordinated effort with local government(s).

20. Roles and Responsibilities
Team Effort
MPO – DOT – Consultant Assistance
Model update kickoff meetings held
Discuss who can do what and by when
Tracking sheet for responsibilities and milestones
Each MPO has varying time availability and skill sets

21. MPO Staff Skill Sets MPO staff skills needed for ISMS implementation:
GIS (portions can be conducted within ESRI)
Data processing (Excel and TransCAD primarily)
Reasonableness checks on TDM elements
Investigative skills (why am I getting this result?)
Understanding of transportation planning process
Technical writing (narrative of unique inputs and findings, impacts to LRTP)
Skills NOT needed:
Advanced travel demand modeling expertise
Advanced TransCAD and programming expertise

22. DOT Support to MPO’s
DOT staff support is flexible and dependent upon MPO need. Mostly focus on:
Programmatic and technical guidance on ISMS steps
Access to and analysis support of DOT data sets
DOT to lead efforts on select technical modeling steps
Validation of all modeling steps
TransCAD technical assistance

23. How did we accomplish this?
Consultant Services
Task Orders
Policy and Procedure Manual
Model Prototype
Assist with full model rebuilds including calibration/validation to ISMS standards
Training/assistance for DOT
Individualized Training Workshops
On-the-fly Q and A
Etc
MPO staff maintain ability to work with models at different levels of expertise
Basic
Moderate
Advanced

24. Where are we now? Implementation
Waterloo/Cedar Falls MPO – Implemented
Des Moines – in process
Cedar Rapids – in process
Quad Cities – in process
Ames – kicked off
Sioux City – kicked off
Omaha/Council Bluffs – in process
Dubuque – Coming soon