1. Euro area export and import of goods: direct versus indirect seasonal adjustment
Carmen Picón
Luxembourg, 6 March 2012

2. Euro area export and import of goods
Frequency: monthly
Period: available from January 1999
Components: country contributions to the euro area aggregate
No publishable data (inc. some confidential data)
Some countries (all the large and some small) with a clear seasonality
Some countries (small) with no-seasonality or difficult to capture

3. Direct versus indirect seasonal adjustment
The criteria used in the assessment:
(i) graphical analysis
(ii) study of the smoothness of the adjusted series
(iii) analysis of the seasonal factors
(iv) the assessment of standard quality measures
(v) estimates of residual effects in the seasonally adjusted series
(vi) stability analysis using revision histories and (vii) sliding spans.

4. Euro area balance of payments

5. Euro area balance of payments

6. (i) Graphical analysis
Monthly growth rates: direct versus indirect approach:
Calculate from the absolute value of the differences
Percentage of concordance between the directly and indirectly seasonally adjusted series

7. Direct versus indirect seasonal adjustment
The criteria used in the assessment:
(i) graphical analysis
(ii) study of the smoothness of the adjusted series
(iii) analysis of the seasonal factors

9. (iv) Assessment of standard quality measures

10. Stability analysis: revision histories
(vi) Stability analysis using revision histories
Stability analysis: revision histories

11. (vi) Stability analysis using revision histories

12. Summary of quality measures applied to seasonally adjusted data of euro area goods
Same indicator, only for the last 3 years is in favour of DIR
Residual trading-day effect in the indirect adjustment

13. Thank you for your attention!
Any questions?