1. Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP
Edward I. Tollerud1, Brian D. Jamison2, Fernando Caracena1, Steven E. Koch1, Diana L. Bartels1,Randall S. Collander2
1NOAA Research - Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO
2Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere – Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
LIDAR DATA
R. Michael Hardesty3, Brandi J. McCarty4, Christoph Kiemle5, and Gerhard Ehret5
3NOAA Research - Environmental Technology Laboratory, Boulder, CO
4Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
5German Aerospace Center (DLR), Germany
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

2. FSL/FRD IHOP Science Objectives
QPF Assessment
Design and Compare model runs for sensitivity to input data
LLJ Moisture Budget
Computations with LLJ research flight data
Scales of Moisture Transport by LLJ
Qualitative Comparison of Data Analyses
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

3. Flight Plans and Data Platforms
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

4. “Perfect storm” scenario
(What we wanted…)
“Perfect storm” scenario
2004
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

5. “Perfect storm” scenario
(What we wanted…)
“Perfect storm” scenario
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

6. “Perfect storm” scenario
(What we wanted…)
“Perfect storm” scenario
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

7. LAPS Research Analysis Isotachs (kt), 825 hpa 1300 UTC 9 June 2002
(What we got…)
LAPS Research Analysis
Isotachs (kt), 825 hpa
1300 UTC 9 June 2002
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

8. (What we got…)
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

9. Scales of Moisture Transport
Radiosonde-Scale
Dropsonde-Scale
Lidar-Scale
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

10. Scales of Moisture Transport
Lear Drop Times and Locations, Circuits 1 and 2
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

11. Scales of Moisture Transport
June UTC Radiosonde analysis along North Flight Leg – v x q, theta
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

12. Scales of Moisture Transport
June UTC Radiosonde analysis along South Flight Leg – v x q, theta
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

13. Scales of Moisture Transport
Falcon drops Circuit one North Leg v x q, theta
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

14. Scales of Moisture Transport
Lear drops Circuit two North Leg v x q, theta
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

15. X
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

16. Platform Intercomparison: Meridional Moisture Flux
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

17. X
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

18. Platform Intercomparison: Meridional Moisture Flux
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

19. X
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

20. Interplatform comparison: Co-located Falcon and Lear Profiles
dt ~ 1h X X
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

21. V x q profile comparison, circuit 1 to circuit 2
dt ~ 4h X
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

22. Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences: Meridional Moisture Flux during Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

23. Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences: Zonal Moisture Flux during Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

24. Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain
Objectives
Determination of significant contributing mechanisms
Assessment of unresolved transports: comparison of LIDAR covariances and budget residuals
Issues
Stationarity Assumption
Off-perimeter Budget Terms
Surface Fluxes
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

25. Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain
At a point:
q/t + vq  (q)/p  R where R=(errors, P, surface flux,etc.)
Over a volume:
q/t + vq  (q)/p  R
Term by term:
 vq =  v q +  v’q’
Budget domain is 3D box enclosed by data “curtains” beneath flight track
Compute layer average horizontal flux as  vq dl
Domain size and flight patterns are compromise chosen to legitimize assumption of stationarity
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

26. Figure: v and q Lear second circuit!X
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

27. Impact of Vertical CorrelationsX
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

28. Impact of Within-layer Vertical CorrelationsX
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

29. Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux
Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

30. Temporal Change of Layer Averaged Horizontal Moisture Flux
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

31. Vertically Integrated Moisture Fluxes on Budget Domain Boundary
South
North
Computations from Falcon Dropsondes, Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

32. Full 3D Domain Net Moisture Flux, First Falcon Circuit
The answer is: -3.3 mm/day
What was the question?
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

33. QPF Sensitivity to High-Density Initialization Data
Objective 1: Determine impact of IHOP research data (primarily dropsondes) in initialization dataset on LLJ forecast intensity and placement
Procedure: Compare two WRF forecasts (with /IHOP research data in LAPS initialization, and without) for 3 June and 9 June LLJ cases)
LIDAR usage: Qualitative forecast assessment
Status: Operational runs in process; re-acquisition of LAPS initialization datasets required for research runs in process (eg., revised dropsonde data)
Objective 2: Assess importance of surface fluxes to LLJ development
LIDAR usage: Initialization dataset
Status: Questionable
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

34. Run-total precipitation, 01:00 UTC 10 June 2002
Operational WRF
Research WRF (w/dropsondes)
Run-total precipitation, 01:00 UTC 10 June 2002
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

35. Research WRF (w/dropsondes)
Operational WRF
Research WRF (w/dropsondes)
Isotachs, north leg, 1700 UTC
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

36. Research WRF (w/dropsondes)
Operational WRF
Research WRF (w/dropsondes)
RH, 825 hpa, 1700 UTC
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

37. Conclusions and Future Efforts
Multiscale Structure of the LLJ
1) Several Platforms provide similar picture of LLJ
2) Examine pervasiveness of laminar structures
3) Estimate effects of small (LIDAR-scale) horizontal correlations
4) More detailed determination of temporal development of LLJ
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

38. Conclusions and Future Efforts
QPF Implications
1) Influence of drops on analyses and forecasts small
2) Confirm with June 3 case
3) Compute model-predicted fluxes, compare research to baseline
4) Compute fluxes through model-domain top
5) Examine model-generated precipitation fields
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

39. Lear, Falcon Drop Times and Locations, Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

40. 4h forecast
1700 UTC
9 June 2002
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

41. Analysis
1700 UTC
9 June 2002
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

42. Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux
Circuit 2
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

43. Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux
Circuit 3
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

44. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

45. Data and observations
IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004