1. Orange County Transportation Authority Citizens Advisory Committee
Traffic and Revenue Analysis for the San Diego Freeway (Interstate 405) Project
Chairman Amante, Vice Chair Bates and Directors, my name is Rose Casey and I am a Program Manager in Highway Project Delivery.
I’m here to share with you the outcome of the Traffic & Revenue analysis we’ve completed to determine the financial viability of implementing Express lanes on the I-405, and to discuss staff’s recommendation to continue with evaluating the Express lanes alternative through the environmental process.
Orange County Transportation Authority
Citizens Advisory Committee
March 16, 2010

2. Interstate 405 Project 14 miles from SR-73 to I-605
Continue partnerships with Costa Mesa, Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach, Westminster, Garden Grove, Seal Beach, Los Alamitos, community of Rossmoor, Long Beach in LA County

3. Study Alternatives Add one lane each way ($1.7 billion)
Add two lanes each way ($1.9 billion)
Available funding <$600 million
Alternatives not currently funded
If questions:
Present costs:
Alt 1: $1.3 B
Alt. 2: $1.4 B
M2: $300 M
Aug Staff Report:
Alt. 1: $1.2 B
Alt. 2: $1.7 B
M2: <$400 M

4. Added Alternatives
Nominal improvements within available funding ($600 million)
Two-lane Express Lane toll facility ($2.2 billion)
Nominal improvements may not meet M2 commitment of adding one lane throughout corridor
Express lanes could provide additional revenue to fund two lanes each way
(Present cost for Alt. 3: $ B)
Additional costs beyond Alt. 2 include:
Direct connector structure from SR-73 to I-405
Widening for additional lanes between SR-73 and Euclid
Infrastructure/technology to operate and toll Express lanes

5. Express Lanes Lane Diagram
HOV
Lane
4 Existing GP Lanes
Express Facility
New Exist. HOV
New GP
4 Existing GP Lanes
If questions:
Current assumption: transponder required like 91 Express Lanes
Evaluate new technology between now and project implementation
Sense occupancy: SOV’s, 2+, 3+
Express alternative:
accommodates both HOV and toll operations
improves mobility in GP lanes
may fund other improvements

6. Expected PM Peak Speeds
Speed in MPH
2 Express Lanes
1 HOV Lane
-With no improvements in the corridor, speeds will continue to deteriorate during the peak periods.
-Without a change in HOV lane operational policy, speeds in the HOV lanes will deteriorate and become no faster than the general purpose lanes.
-None of the alternatives will provide high speeds (50+ mph) for all freeway users.
-The number of hours of peak period congestion in 2035 will decrease progressively with alternatives further to the right on the slide.
-The slide presents estimates based on limited information. Additional study is required to confirm the estimates.
Funding to build project (without, will take decades to fund)
Improved mobility across all lanes including GP lanes, revenue to fund 7 lanes total in each direction
Calculated across 7 lanes, Alt. 2 avg speed is 31 mph, Alt. 3 avg speed is 35.7 mph
Alt. 3 is 5 mph better or 15% better.
2 Express lanes will be managed to provide at least 25% of corridor traffic (2 of 7 lanes) with free flow speeds and a reliable, faster trip time during peaks.
Choice with Alt. 3 is maximizing revenue or maximizing throughput through managing the Express lanes.
Policy decision is to manage the 7 lanes somewhere between the bars in Alt. 2 and Alt. 3.
Additional info for possible questions:
Why does speed of HOV lane improve with addition of 1 or 2 GP lanes?
HOV’s will shift back and forth from HOV to GP to drive in less congested lanes; speeds in HOV and GP will equalize.
Why is speed better for 5 GP’s with Alt 3 than for 5 GP’s with Alt 1?
Alt 3 has more lanes (7 total vs 6). Add’l lane is Express lane which will draw traffic out of GP lanes.
38,000 of bi-directional total of 50,000 daily HOV2 (75%) would shift to GP if tolled, replaced by same # of SOV’s (Express lanes managed to maintain speeds)
1 HOV Lane
1 HOV Lane
6 GP Lanes
1 HOV Lane
5 GP Lanes
4 GP Lanes
1 HOV Lane
5 GP Lanes
4 GP Lanes
4 GP Lanes
Today
2015 No Improvements
2035 No Improvements
2035 Add One Lane
2035 Add Two Lanes
2035 Express Lanes
*Based on estimates, further study required.

7. Traffic and Revenue Study
Phase 1 - indicates financial viability, based on existing traffic data and model
Phase 2 - more refined traffic and revenue estimation to be initiated later in environmental phase
Phase 3 - investment-grade analysis
Gerry handles this slide
Phase 1 completed
Phase 2 will be done as part of additional scope of work for Alt. 3 during environmental phase
Phase 3 will be done later as preparing to seek financing

8. Proposed Access Points
Gerry handles this slide
Direct access from SR-73 and I-405 on south end, SR-22 and I-405 and I-605 on north end.
Intermediate access at Brookhurst/Talbert and Goldenwest/Bolsa.

9. Annual Revenue Forecasts
Scenario
Annual Revenue
SOV Toll
HOV 2+ Free
$45.1 million
HOV 3+ Free
$196.7 million
Gerry handles this slide
HOV2+ free: about 20% capacity for toll-payers
HOV3+ free: about 80% capacity for toll-payers
If questions:
Phase 2 T&R: could evaluate scenario for 3+ during peak hours and 2+ during off-peak
Also could evaluate scenario for starting with 2+ , then point at which should change to 3+

10. Supported Construction Costs
Scenario
Bonding Capacity
SOV Toll
HOV 2+ Free
$300 million-$500 million
HOV 3+ Free
$1.4 billion-$1.8 billion
Gerry handles this slide
A 30-year bonding period was assumed (2020 – 2050);
Taking the traffic growth rates implicit in the traffic model, there is an estimated annual growth of slightly less than 1 percent per year;
Toll increases are assumed to be implemented annually to fully reflect a perceived inflation rate of 2.5% to 3% per year;
Operation and Maintenance costs are assumed to be 15% of gross toll revenues, reflecting an efficient and experienced operator;
Loss of revenue, due to violations and other non-payment, is assumed to be of 6% of gross toll revenues, based on improving enforcement procedures in place;
A requirement for coverage ratios of 1.75X was assumed based on current market requirements; this could be lowered depending on the use of the financing power of Orange County and/or other financial supports are included in the offering terms;
A present worth factor of 6% was assumed based on possible bond interest rates;
Issuance costs of 25% were assumed.  These can include: the establishment of reserve funds; engineering, legal and other fees; and underwriters discount; it can exceed the assumed 25%.

11. Express Lanes Financial Viability
Alternative 3: Express Lanes
Funding gap
$2.2 billion - $600 million = $1.6 billion
Revenue potential range
HOV 2+ Free $0.3 billion -$0.5 billion
HOV 3+ Free $1.4 billion -$1.8 billion

12. Re-cap of Progress to Date
One and two lane alternatives can generally fit within existing ROW
Express lanes alternative could provide needed funds
Four public scoping meetings conducted
Good attendance (400+)
Active Q&A sessions
Concerns remain about local ROW impacts
Reported ROW findings to Board in Aug. 2009
Now, we have information that the Express Lanes alternative is financially viable and could fund the improvements
If questions:
Categories of majority of comments received during scoping:
ROW
Express lanes and being tolled
Noise
Public Hearing and Draft ED: late (mid 2012)
PWG
SWG

13. Next Steps
Prepare environmental technical studies on the build alternatives
Return to Board to discuss:
Preliminary findings from environmental studies
Potential reduction in number of build alternatives
Operating scenarios for Express Lanes
In summary:
Based on findings from the T&R study, the Express Lanes alt. could provide the funding to build the project and add 2 lanes in each direction.
Will improve mobility across all lanes, including GP lanes, with 2 Express lanes managed to offer free flow speeds and a reliable, faster trip time.
Staff is therefore recommending that the Express Lanes alt. be evaluated further through the environmental process and that Parsons’ contract be amended to perform this additional work.
Questions?
If questions:
Parsons’ contract: original: $9,605,417, $4.5 million amendment totals to $14,105,417
Without Alt. 4, $3.5 million amendment totalling to $13,105,417
Elimination of alternative(s): Key studies: traffic, air quality, cost estimates (benefit/cost)
If design-build, potential savings of 1-2 years or more.
Current schedule: complete environmental mid (early 2013)
Start construction: mid (early 2018)
Complete construction: mid (early 2023)
If Alt. 3 included, impact to schedule of 8 months + 3 months = 11 months, ~1 year.