1. Issues on Ozone Planning in the Western United States
Prepared by the WESTAR Planning Committee for the Fall Business Meeting, Tempe, AZ
October 31, 2011

2. Ozone – 0.075 ppm, 3/12/08 What We Know About the Areas Affected*
52 areas are currently estimated to exceed the ppm, 43 of which would be “marginal”
22 areas are in the WEST
17 areas are in CA (10 “marginal” and 7 either “moderate” or higher)
4 areas in WY, NV, AZ, CO “marginal” plus UT
*Based on 9/22/2011 Gina McCarthy Memo to Air Division Directors and State Updates

3. What We Think We Know About Timing
120-Day Letters – Fall of 2011
Classification Rule – Late 2011
Designations/Classifications by June 2012*
Implementation Rule Proposal – Spring 2012
Implementation Rule Final – End of 2012
Proposed Ozone NAAQS October 2013
Final Ozone NAAQS July 2014
Show Attainment of 2008 Std. by June 2015 for Marginal Areas
*Pending legal challenges

4. What We Know About Marginal Ozone Nonattainment SIP Requirements
Reasonably Available Control Technology 172(c)(1)
Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance for MSAs Greater Than 200, (a)(2)(B)
Emission Inventories 172(c)(3), 182(a)(1)
New Source Review Requirements for Nonattainment Areas 172(c)(4) and (5), 182(a)(2)(C)
Infrastructure SIP 172(c)(7)
Periodic Inventories Every Three Years 182(a)(3)(A)
Emission Statements 182(a)(3)(B)
VOC Offset Ratio 1.1 to 1 182(a)(4)

5. Infrastructure SIPs for 2008 Ozone
Were due 3/12/11 and have become important
Section 110(a)(1) requires states to submit new SIPs for the implementation, maintenance, and enforcement of new NAAQS
Section 110(a)(2) lists the elements new SIPs must contain
Section 110(a)(2)(D)(i) addresses interstate transport (difficult for individual states to do)
All states, regardless of attainment status, do 110(a)(1) & (2) SIPs

6. Contribution determination is broken down into two parts.
Met this requirement for the 1997 ozone standard by relying on CAIR modeling.
Regional Office advice is to sit tight and wait for CSAPR II to address this. CSAPR I (East Coast) addresses transport for 1997 standard.
Contribution determination is broken down into two parts.
1) threshold for contribution (this was 1% in CSAPR I)
2) then after “contribution significance” determination – address controls based on air quality and cost of control

7. What We Don’t Know….
Don’t have a schedule for when the infrastructure SIPs are due.
Don’t have a regional modeling demonstration that shows us if we have transport issues and no schedule for CSAPR II.
Don’t have an implementation rule for 2008 ozone.
Do have a lot of concern about how this will unfold in the West.

8. Regional Products to assist States with Ozone Planning
Western Regional Technical Analyses of Ozone Background and Source Attribution
Regional Products to assist States with Ozone Planning
October 31, 2011

9. 3-year Average 4th Highest 8-Hour Ozone value by County
Calculated using highest design value (3-year average of 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour average) per county.
AQS Federal Reference Method data from the monitoring site in each County with the highest Ozone values

10. 4th Highest 8-Hour Ozone value by County for 2011
(available as of 10/11/2011)
Note: Data represent only a single year (not 3-year design value), and data are incomplete for 2011.
AQS Federal Reference Method data from the monitoring site in each County with the highest Ozone values

11. WestJumpAQMS Background Ozone and Source Apportionment (12-km grid cell is ~55 square miles and a 4-km grid cell is ~6 square miles)

12. CAMx Particulate Source Apportionment Technology
(gridded emissions/met in photochemical model with virtual tags of source categories and regions)
CMAQ Ozone Transport
“Zero-Out” Sensitivity Study
Ozone Source Apportionment
Monthly Mean Results
Tong, D. Q. and Mauzerall, D. L.
Summertime State-Level Source-Receptor Relationships between Nitrogen Oxides Emissions and Surface Ozone Concentrations over the Continental United States.
Environmental Science & Technology, Volume 42, Number 21, 2008.
WRAP regional haze CAMx PSAT modeling, WRAP TSS, 2007

13. Assessment of Smoke’s Contribution to Ozone
Develops best available regional fire emissions inventory for air quality planning
Provides analytical results and technical tools for Federal Land Managers (FLM) to participate more fully in ozone air quality planning efforts
Improves understanding of Ozone exceptional events

14. 2011 Harvard Study on Policy Relevant Background Ozone
Pollution Influence from Sources Outside the United States
               

16. 4-km Impact Assessment Domains (IAD) to model one-way air quality impacts using CAMx/CMAQ photochemical grid modeling
Objective: To perform ozone and particulate matter source apportionment modeling to estimate the contributions of emissions in the western states to downwind ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and visibility impairment.
Approach: Under this task, we will apply the CAMx model’s source apportionment probing tools to estimate the contributions of selected source regions and source categories to ozone and PM concentrations and visibility impairment. The CAMx Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment (APCA) ozone source apportionment and Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) PM source apportionment tools will be used to estimate source region and emissions source category contributions to ozone and PM concentrations. We will work with the WRAP Project Director to define the source regions and emissions categories to tag in the APCA ozone and PSAT PM source apportionment modeling for the 2008 baseline modeling year and 36/12/4-km domain, with a special emphasis on characterizing the effects on, and contributions from, the DSADs defined in the Modeling Protocol. We will prepare a draft source apportionment design document that clearly defines the source regions and source categories to be used in the source apportionment modeling. For example, separate source apportionment can be obtained for each western state by major source categories. Major source categories that are typically processed separately and can be tagged for source apportionment applications include:
• Biogenics
• Fires
• Electrical Generating Units (EGUs)
• Non-EGU point sources
• Oil and Gas sources
• On-road mobile sources
• Non-road mobile sources
• Area sources
The APCA ozone and PSAT PM source apportionment results will be processed at each monitoring site to identify the contributions of source regions and categories on modeled high ozone and PM days. The source apportionment output will also be processed using the same procedures as EPA used in their Transport Rule that EPA used to identify which upwind states contribute significantly to ozone and PM2.5 nonattainment in a downwind state. We will coordinate with the Project Director on the best way to display the source apportionment modeling results. This could include the development of a PC- or Web-based APCA/PSAT visualization tool that will allow the user to develop their own displays of the source apportionment modeling results. The source apportionment results will be documented in a draft and final Technical Memorandum as well as a display files and potentially a visualization tool.
Deliverables: Draft and final Technical Memorandum on source apportionment modeling, source apportionment displays and potentially source apportionment Visualization Tool.
a. Under this task we will identify number of simulations and how those project decisions will be made and define and perform ozone and PM source apportionment modeling for the western U.S. a. For all monitoring sites in the 12-km western domain identified in Phase II, we will analyze and report the upwind sources and geographic areas contributing to Ozone and PM air quality impacts.
b. For nested 4-km “Detailed Source Apportionment Domains (DSADs) decided in Phase II (an example of the scale of these domains is shown Figure 1-4 for the Four Corners region), we will also conduct detailed analysis of the primary and secondary Ozone and PM contributions and primary precursor sources of upwind impacts reaching these nested domains, and the downwind contributions of primary and secondary Ozone and PM and associated precursors and their sources from these domains to downwind receptors, within the 4-km domains, as well as to and from the 12-km and 36-km domains.

17. 4-km Detailed Source Apportionment Domains (DSAD - solid line boxes) to model two-way air quality effects using CAMx/CMAQ photochemical grid modeling
Objective: To perform ozone and particulate matter source apportionment modeling to estimate the contributions of emissions in the western states to downwind ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and visibility impairment.
Approach: Under this task, we will apply the CAMx model’s source apportionment probing tools to estimate the contributions of selected source regions and source categories to ozone and PM concentrations and visibility impairment. The CAMx Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment (APCA) ozone source apportionment and Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) PM source apportionment tools will be used to estimate source region and emissions source category contributions to ozone and PM concentrations. We will work with the WRAP Project Director to define the source regions and emissions categories to tag in the APCA ozone and PSAT PM source apportionment modeling for the 2008 baseline modeling year and 36/12/4-km domain, with a special emphasis on characterizing the effects on, and contributions from, the DSADs defined in the Modeling Protocol. We will prepare a draft source apportionment design document that clearly defines the source regions and source categories to be used in the source apportionment modeling. For example, separate source apportionment can be obtained for each western state by major source categories. Major source categories that are typically processed separately and can be tagged for source apportionment applications include:
• Biogenics
• Fires
• Electrical Generating Units (EGUs)
• Non-EGU point sources
• Oil and Gas sources
• On-road mobile sources
• Non-road mobile sources
• Area sources
The APCA ozone and PSAT PM source apportionment results will be processed at each monitoring site to identify the contributions of source regions and categories on modeled high ozone and PM days. The source apportionment output will also be processed using the same procedures as EPA used in their Transport Rule that EPA used to identify which upwind states contribute significantly to ozone and PM2.5 nonattainment in a downwind state. We will coordinate with the Project Director on the best way to display the source apportionment modeling results. This could include the development of a PC- or Web-based APCA/PSAT visualization tool that will allow the user to develop their own displays of the source apportionment modeling results. The source apportionment results will be documented in a draft and final Technical Memorandum as well as a display files and potentially a visualization tool.
Deliverables: Draft and final Technical Memorandum on source apportionment modeling, source apportionment displays and potentially source apportionment Visualization Tool.
a. Under this task we will identify number of simulations and how those project decisions will be made and define and perform ozone and PM source apportionment modeling for the western U.S. a. For all monitoring sites in the 12-km western domain identified in Phase II, we will analyze and report the upwind sources and geographic areas contributing to Ozone and PM air quality impacts.
b. For nested 4-km “Detailed Source Apportionment Domains (DSADs) decided in Phase II (an example of the scale of these domains is shown Figure 1-4 for the Four Corners region), we will also conduct detailed analysis of the primary and secondary Ozone and PM contributions and primary precursor sources of upwind impacts reaching these nested domains, and the downwind contributions of primary and secondary Ozone and PM and associated precursors and their sources from these domains to downwind receptors, within the 4-km domains, as well as to and from the 12-km and 36-km domains.