2. Polarization
Time 1 33 Liberals 34 Moderates 33 Conservatives Time 2 50 Liberals 0 Moderates 50 Conservatives Time 1 33 Democrats 34 Independents 33 Republicans Time 2 50 Democrats 0 Independents 50 Republicans

3. Party Sorting  Party Polarization
Time 1
Democrats Independents Republicans
50 liberals liberals
25 moderates 50 moderates moderates
25 conservatives conservatives
Time 2
Democrats Independents Republicans
75 liberals conservatives
25 moderates moderates moderates

4. Change in ID by Region from 1980 to 1990
Democratic
Republican
South
-16.1
[-12.1, -20.1]
+14.5
[9.5, 19.5]
New England
-12.1
[-3.8, -20.4]
+7.5
[-3.2, 18.2]
Border (KY, MD, MO, WV)
-8.5
[-1.8, 15.2]
+5.1
[-3.5, 13.7]
Mid-Atlantic (NY, NJ, PA, DE)
-11.2
[-7.2, -15.2]
+9.4
[3.7, 15.1]
Midwest (OH, MI, IN, IL, WI, MN)
-8.8
[-5, -12.6]
+9.2
[3.8, 14.6]
Plains (IA, ND, SD, NE, KS)
-3.5
[-11.9, 4.9]
+6.5
[-4.5, 17.5]
Rocky (MT, CO, ID, WY, UT, NV)
-0.6
[-12.6, 11.2]
+5.9
[-5.2, 17]
Pacific (CA, OR, WA)
-11.8
[-7, -16.6]
+7.9
[1.6, 14.2]
Southwest (TX, AZ, NM, OK)
-14.4
[-7.5, -21.3]
+13.6
[6.7, 20.5]
95% CI in brackets

5. Party Identification for Liberals

6. Party Identification for Conservatives

7. Sorting by Ideology into Parties: 1980 -2018
Blue =Dem
Red =Rep
Grey =Indp
41% moderate %
34% conservative %
25% liberal %

8. Party and Ideology in 2018

9. No Decline in Moderates
Source: GSS

10. Issue Centrists Still Dominate
Source: 2016 ANES

11. Figure 4: Abortion Should be Legal--Sometimes
Source: The Gallup Organization

12. For any candidate
Source: ANES

13. Gave Money to a Campaign
ANY campaign
Source: ANES

14. The Current Party Parity System has had several consequences related to U.S. Politics
1.Partisan voting in Congress
2. elections are more competitive
3. presidents who are dividers, not unifiers
4. partisans of both parties misperceiving the other
5. era of unstable majorities

15. Determining Partisan Overlap in Congress
Democrat

16. Partisan Convergence in the House, DW-Nominate Scores, 1867-1999

17. Partisan Convergence in the Senate, DW-Nominate Scores, 1867-1999

19. Elections 1950-1992 Post 1992 President Congress President Congress
Won by points H seats ave.
w/out
64 , points of 21 Dem.
5 of % had Dem
8 of % or more
S- 57 to 43 margin
Dems 34 of 42 yrs.
Less than 3 percent. H- 35 seat margin
In two popular vote of 12 Rep.*
winner lost
0 won with 55% S-53 to 47 margin
Reps 16 0f 24 yrs.*
* Partially result of rural states plus majority- minority districts

20. Trump

23. 2014 2012 2016 President House House Senate Senate House Senate

25. Will 2018 be a Wave Election ?

27. Only three things matter in Predicting Off Year Congressional Elections
1.Margin of the vote– How many Republicans will vote Republican, How many Democrats voting Democrat and how will Independents vote ?
2. Exactly How many Democrats, Republicans and Independents are there ?
3.Who will turn out to vote in the mid-term
Margin is easier now because much less split ticket voting
Estimating the number of Democrats, Republicans and Independents
Is reasonably straight forward
The single most difficult thing to do is to determine who will vote

30. Off Year Voter Turnout by 7 Point Party Identification: 1958-2014

31. Voter Turnout by Partisan Strength:1982-2014

33. Democratic advantage in identification is partially offset by stronger Republican turnout

35.
Democratic advantage in identification is again partially offset by stronger Republican turnout

40. Dem Vote Prediction = 52.9% of two-party vote
Rep Vote Prediction = 47.1% of two-party vote
Democratic win by %
That translates into a seat Democratic margin
Minus the Republican bonus(efficient voting) its close.

41. 2016

44. Trump Job Approval by Strength Want Trump to Run in 2020
of Party Identification
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know

48. New Jersey will be in play by November with Hugin having a chance

49. Whatever happens in 2018 the parties will be changing:
If Republicans hold House and Senate then Trump is the new Republican party
If they lose the House and/or Senate then the establishment party will rise to oppose
Because there will be no policy gains
Democrats are already in battle over the direction of the party
Ocasio-Cortez. Sanders Warren Vs. Biden Clinton Connor Lamb

51. However, to quote a famous politician:

52. The End