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The Science–Policy/Decision-Making Interface: How can science inform effective regional ocean governance? Robin Brown Executive Secretary PICES – North.

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Presentation on theme: "The Science–Policy/Decision-Making Interface: How can science inform effective regional ocean governance? Robin Brown Executive Secretary PICES – North."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Science–Policy/Decision-Making Interface: How can science inform effective regional ocean governance? Robin Brown Executive Secretary PICES – North Pacific Marine Science Organization In the long run, good SCIENCE should lead to good POLICY which then leads to good DECISIONS I have ADDED DECISION-MAKING to the title because, from my perspective, having Science driving Policy is GOOD, but affecting DECISION-MAKING is the REAL goal. The more cynical amongst you will acknowledge that having good POLICY is not always enough, because these good POLICIES are not always translated to good DECISIONS In addition, not all good DECISIONS on management actions REQUIRE new policy And developing and implementing new POLICY can be slow I will talk about how the PICES experience with Regional Assessments and how these are used in the region. Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in Support of Regional Ocean Governance

2 A bit about PICES An intergovernmental scientific organization, established in 1992 to promote and coordinate marine scientific research in the North Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas in order to advance scientific knowledge of the area concerned and its living resources. Its six member countries include Canada, Japan, People's Republic of China, Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America. Things to note: This is a SCIENCE Organization, NOT a RFMO. We don’t manage fish and fisheries; we do not set regulations This is INTERGOVERNMENTAL, but NOT a UN body The mandate is very BROAD It is very much focused on the SCIENCE as opposed to MANAGEMENT. The actual tasks of MANAGEMENT fall to RFMOs and national agencies, Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

3 FUTURE -“Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems What determines an ecosystem’s intrinsic resilience and vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic forcing? How do ecosystems respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing, and how might they change in the future? How do human activities affect coastal ecosystems and how are societies affected by changes in these ecosystems? PICES has a main integrative research program – FUTURE These are BIG and CHALLENGING questions REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS of Ecosystem Status and Trends are am important contribution to this program and the starting point for the “Holy Grail” - FORECASTS of Ecosystem State Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

4 PICES North Pacific Ecosystem Status and Trends Reports
PICES has complete two North Pacific Ecosystem Status and Trend Reports and we are at work on a third These are REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS – Current status, compared to historical observations Include marginal and enclosed seas Built (ultimately) on NATIONAL data contributions About 90% of what PICES contributed to World Ocean Assessment 1 was drawn from the most recent of these reports Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

5 PICES NPESR zones This is the world according to the PICES NPESR.
There will be assessments for each numbered biogeographic region and a synthesis for the entire area. Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

6 Why do we do these? Decadal climate variation is STRONG in the North Pacific This produces coherent regional patterns in changes on ocean productivity. These patterns are incoherent/ inexplicable when you take a local view only. Agencies in PICES demand this information for planning and managing activities, including fisheries. Quotes from our Governing Council Members at our recent Annual Meeting: “The RFMO’s operating in the North Pacific are acutely aware of the need to incorporate environmental change into their stock assessment and management advice but most lack the expertise to do this and are reaching out to PICES and others for support” “The 2030 Agenda for ‘The’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations includes … goals 13 and climate change and the use of oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development. In this context, the role and the task of PICES which handle those themes is even more meaningful.” “We face a future where we can expect continued rapid changes. As such, PICES must remain a leader in the development of the understanding of marine systems whose trajectories may, or perhaps more likely, will take them outside their historically observed ranges of variability. We must also anticipate feedbacks on human communities, and thereby help devise effective mitigation and adaption strategies”. Are these regional assessments fully integrated to the decision-making in PICES countries and in North Pacific RFMOs? NO, but we are on the way. The REQUIREMENTS are clear and it is up to scientists to deliver. This is not a task for the faint of heart. Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

7 How do we build these? – in collaboration with:
National Agencies e.g. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, NOAA Fisheries, Fisheries Research Agency of Japan, TINRO in Russia, NFRI and KIOST in Korea, SOA in China and others RFMOs e.g. North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission; International Pacific Halibut Commission; ISC (tuna) and in the future, North Pacific Fisheries Commission; Pacific Salmon Commission Other Regional Bodies e.g. NOWPAP’s State of the Marine Environment Report, North Pacific Research Board We have a variety of data sources and partners. Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

8 What about contributions to Global Assessments?
PICES contributed a North Pacific Chapter to WOA-1 PICES, in collaboration with ICES, is contributing to IPCC PICES, in collaboration with ICES, is contributing to a FAO assessment We are NOT contributing to some other global assessments PICES contributed a North Pacific Chapter to WOA-1 Almost entirely drawn from NPESR 2 PICES, in collaboration with ICES, is contributing to IPCC Via primary scientific journals PICES, in collaboration with ICES, is contributing to a FAO assessment Update to FAO Technical Report 530- Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture. Overview of current scientific knowledge We are NOT contributing to some other global assessments E.g. CBD, IPBES, GEO6 What does this all look like in graphical form, from the PICES perspective? (next slide) Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

9 It is a complicated mess!
WOA It is a complicated mess! It is even worse when you realize that many of the contributors to PICES Regional Assessments are also contributing directly to some these other global assessments. Too many assessments with overlapping needs - exceeding the capacity for the current community of practitioners. Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

10 How can we deal with this complexity?
Careful bottom-up AND top-down negotiation on indicators and methodology Careful consideration of which parts are best delivered through REGIONAL assessments as opposed to NATIONAL assessments Schedule global assessments to make them EFFICIENT Set multiyear plans for staged improvements Implement some modest support (Technical Support Unit?) I think we have a lot of work to do to better coordinate the activities We need to negotiate scope, content, key indicators and methodology. This cannot all be “top down”. We need to sort out the role for REGIONAL ASSESSMENTs. National Assessments are likely to do a poor job of ocean basin assessments, particularly beyond the exclusive Economic Zone and given the PICES experience, may mis-represent important basin scale phenomena. We need to develop a SCHEDULE of activities that allows for national, regional and global synthesis and minimizes “competition” for scarce expertise amongst the various assessments. We probably need more support – perhaps in the form of an IPCC-like Technical Support Unit. Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

11 Questions? Nov 27-29, 2017 Building International Partnership to Enhance Science Based Ecosystem Approaches in support of Regional Ocean Governance

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