1. Forecasting – HIV/AIDS commodities Key challenges and lessons learned
Moscow, March 12-16, 2006
Dr. Dragana Veskov
HIV/AIDS Logistics Advisor

2. HIV/AIDS commodities forecasting/quantification issues

3. Forecasting challenges: Policy issues
Multiple sources of funding, procurement mechanisms and distribution channels are used for ARV drugs and HIV/AIDS commodities
Standard treatment guidelines are inconsistent, in need of revision or have not been widely disseminated to providers

4. Forecasting challenges: Policy issues
Communication
Coordination

5. Forecasting challenges: capacity issues
Program targets do not take into account service delivery and supply chain capacity
Forecasting and quantification capacity is limited at country and program levels

6. Forecasting challenges: operational issues
Data on ART services and HIV/AIDS commodities is scarce and when available is often of insufficient quantity and quality to be used for forecasting and quantification
Program expansion does not occur as rapidly as expected

7. Forecasting challenges: operational issues
Quantification and procurement occur when funding becomes available rather then as a program planning activity that identifies commodity needs and mobilizes resources for procurement

8. Lessons learned Quantification exercise is time and resource intensive
Quantifications are heavily assumption based but will become more evidence based over time
Quantification should be based on realistic program plans and available financing

9. Lessons learned
Quantification results can be used to determine quantities to order and shipment schedules for short-term procurement planning with available funding
F&Q should be reviewed and updated at least every six months and procurement plans should be adjusted accordingly

10. Lessons learned
F&Q requires a consultative process with multiple stakeholders
The results from F&Q should be used for medium and long-term program planning and resource mobilization for ART

11. No Product,
No Program!