1. Comments on Evo-Factor proposal
draft
BMW,
Christoph Lueginger
Comments on Evo-Factor proposal
difficulties, requirements and dependencies

2. Comments on evolution factor proposal Break-In of a vehicle
draft
Comments on evolution factor proposal
Break-In of a vehicle
 Effect is large within the first few kilometers and reduces over time.
 Only the complete delta between "0 km" and the run-in vehicle is a valid delta.
 It can only be measured at a lab, and such, that the "0 km" measurement is matching the COP-process (dyno setting, pre, test). Any more kilometers will be unrepresentative. Run-in situation is obviously less critical.
Comments On Evolution Factor Proposal, BMW, Lueginger,

3. Comments on evolution factor proposal
draft
Comments on evolution factor proposal
Sales and Registrations within a year
 Sales / registrations are not equally distributed within a year and not equal between different years.
 This disturbs an analysis which just takes an average.
Comments On Evolution Factor Proposal, BMW, Lueginger,

4. Comments on evolution factor proposal
draft
Comments on evolution factor proposal
Process of a scientific statistical analysis
pre-
selection
find distribution of age, sex, company car share
 select subjects accordingly
pre-study
considers driving style and vehicle usage
 make groups and ensure statistical requirements for each group
study
measurement via calibrated loggers over a sufficient period (considers real distance and real consumption and covers all seasons)
analysis
find and delete outliers and invalid data
weight result of the groups according to their distribution
Dipl.-Ing. Christian Reiser, et.al.: Kundenfahrverhalten im Fokus der Fahrzeugentwicklung, ATZ Jahrgang 110
Without obeying the rules for a statistical analysis which are there for many good reasons, any conclusion drawn from a result deviating from that will be invalid or will be valid only by chance.
Allow for a certain period of familiarization. Drivers will try out functions at the beginning and are not used to the vehicle.
An analysis with real driving can only start, after the driver is familiar with the vehicle, and therefore cannot cover brand-new vehicles. Measurement should not start from beginning, if vehicle is provided for the study.
Comments On Evolution Factor Proposal, BMW, Lueginger,

5. using average in real world
draft
Comments on evolution factor proposal
Conclusion
lab-testing
using average in real world
considers total break-in delta  
no influence of driver group
no influence of environmental conditions or seasons
no influence of familiarization effects
An evolution factor can only be derived from measurements in a lab ("0 km" demand).
A realistic evolution factor, that covers the majority of the vehicles, is needed in order to avoid unnecessary test burden.
Decision should be taken on the basis of a technically correct assessment in combination with available experience and data and shall be balanced with the resulting effort.
Comments On Evolution Factor Proposal, BMW, Lueginger,