1. Katarina Stančić Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
The role of leading indicators in the evidence-based decision-making system
Katarina Stančić
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

2. Oxford Dictionary - The Word of the Year (2016): Post truth
an adjective that indicates the circumstances in which it is
forming a public opinion to a maximum extent under
the influence of feelings and personal convictions,
and not under the influence of objective facts and evidence
Causes:
the widely-present Libellan socio-paradigm,
political rhetoric,
replacing traditional right-hand values for
liberal-left, etc.

3. „decides heart, not head“
Facts - less priority in relation to the emotional set and emotional and personal values:
political, social confusion and permanent distrust in social institutions

4. Do we need more than ever science in a post-war society?
evidence-based decision making
making decisions based on evidence and evidence
the reaction is on the need for a critical evaluation of information
A scientific approach is based on the facts that can be proven
in the professional public is increasingly insisting on evidence-based decision-making, as the only functional and responsible response to the challenges that a modern, post-industrial society faces.

5. System of leading indicators in RZS
Analytical means in predicting cyclical trends in economic activity
It involves the detection of circular cyclic points, minimum and maximum, in order to result in anticipation of the stage of the economic cycle of the domestic economy in the future period
In the detection of the variables that entered the presented composite indicators, all macroeconomic areas and surveys on the expectations of economic entities in the Serbian economy were analyzed
The developed system of composite leading indicators of the RZS predominates on the cycles of economic activity, on average, for about six months and, combined with econometric models, enables a quantitative evaluation of the dynamics of the annual growth rate of economic activity in the short term, at the quarterly and annual level

6. A family of leading indicators, by sectors

7. GRIPAS - the leading indicator of construction
Manufacture of electrical equipment, physical volume
Export of goods and services in Germany
Export of goods and services to Slovenia
Import of cellulose and recycled paper
NBS Securities
Number of arrivals of domestic and foreign tourists
variables with the best performance of the leading indicators that entered the final composition of the composite industrial indicator of economic activity of Serbia (GRIPAS)

8. INDIPAS - leading indicator of industrial production
physical volume of the beverage production sector
import of agriculture, forestry and fisheries
import of the metal production sector except machinery
import of the production sector of non-mentioned machines and equipment
import of organic chemical products
import of machinery specialized for the industry
new orders in the processing industry sector
variables with the best performance of the leading indicators that entered the final composition of the composite industrial indicator of the economic activity of Serbia (INDIPAS)

9. TIPAS - leading indicator of trade
Manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, physical volume
Production in the food industry, physical volume
Production in the textile industry, physical volume
Imports of meat and meat products
Real growth of VAT inflows
Turnover of retail sale of food and beverages at current prices
Physical volume of freight land and river traffic
variables with the best performance of the leading indicators that entered the final composition of the composite industrial indicator of economic activity of Serbia (TIPAS)

10. AGRIPAS - leading indicator of agricultural production
Model of plant production – precipitation (March-April, June-August and in the seedling period, estimation of harvest area, Palmer's Z moisture index)
Model of livestock production – livestock and primary livestock products

11. Export indicator of economic activity of Serbia (IZIPAS)
Auxiliary mechanism in the forecast of Serbia's GDP for the current year
It is based on the dynamics of economic activity of the largest foreign trade partners of Serbia: Italy, Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania
IZIPAS is thus constructed as
composite coinciding indicator
of the GDP for the largest countries
Serbia's export markets and shows
high degree of cyclical alignment
with GDP moving domestic
economy

12. Thank you for your attention
Launch
FUNKY TUNES
BOFFIN
Katarina Stančić