1. WGSIP16 Tuesday

2. WGSIP16 Wednesday

3. WCRP Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction: 16th Meeting
Adam Scaife & Francisco Doblas-Reyes
(WGSIP co-chairs)

5. Near term climate predictions for GFCS: WGSIP with WMO Global Producing Centres
WCRP Grand Challenge #1
See also the WMO Lead Centre for long range forecast
multi-model ensembles:

6. WMO Global Producing Centres
See also the WMO Lead Centre for long range forecast
multi-model ensembles:

7. (1st) International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction
Toulouse May 13-16,
special thanks to George Boer and Laurent Terray

8.
CIMA CHFP Data Server

9. CHFP database “CMIP for seasonal forecasting”

10. Extratropical forecast skill is emerging on seasonal timescales!
Slides from Amy et al
Northern Annular Mode
in winter Sea Level Pressure
Signals to noise is small so large ensembles are needed!
All models show some skill and the predictability of the NAM is much higher than in previous operational systems
Alexey Karpechko & Adam Scaife

11. Stratosphere Historical Forecast Project a WGSIP-SPARC project Amy Butler, Adam Scaife, Natalia Calvo, Andrew Charlton-Perez + WGSIP members
High Top Hindcasts
Parallel to WGSIP-CHFP
Extended models
Initialising extra atmosphere, better represented stratosphere
Integrations
4 month lead times (1st November and 1st May start dates)
2 seasons (DJF and JJA)
Case study years: 1989 onwards
At least 6 members per year, preferably more
© Crown copyright Met Office

12. Extratropical forecast skill is emerging on seasonal timescales!
Slides from Amy et al
Amy Butler & Adam Scaife

13. Decadal Prediction (with WGCM)
WGSIP
WGCM
DCPP

14. Decadal Predictions CMIP-WGCM-WGSIP oversee this framework
CMIP5 Protocol
Ocean observations will be at the heart of decadal climate prediction systems. Major challenges will, therefore, be to continually assess whether existing and planned ocean observing systems are optimal for decadal predictions and to address any identified deficiencies. As one example, a tremendous advance has been the measurements of temperature and salinity over the upper 2000 m of the global ocean currently provided by ARGO profiling floats. There exists, however, a need to assess whether observations from below 2000 m would be of use in decadal climate predictions by more completely characterizing deep ocean conditions, such as the lower limb of the MOC, and in assessing other changes such as in abyssal ocean heat content. Also, with a lifetime of individual ARGO floats of only a few years, there is a need to evaluate and minimize the impact of instrumentation changes on the quality of the records both for climate analyses and for initializing prediction models.
CMIP-WGCM-WGSIP oversee this framework
Part of our discussions is to think about ‘What next?’
Working with Veronika Eyring, George Boer and others on CMIP6

15. CMIP5 decadal predictions
Predictions (yr 2-5) from 6 CMIP5 systems
Initialized solid, uninitialised dashed
Global-mean T and Atlantic multi-decadal variability
Correlations and RMSE below
BUT
Outstanding issues with protocol
See proposal for a joint WGCM/WGSIP/CLIVAR for CMIP6….
Forecast time
Doblas-Reyes et al. (2013)

16. Real Time Decadal Forecast Exchange
Doug Smith, Adam Scaife and the decadal prediction community….
15th session of the WMO Commission for Climatology recommended action to start the coordination and exchange of decadal predictions
Proposal went out to various groups to exchange decadal prediction information
research exercise – we can learn a lot from this
prevent over-confidence from a single model
equal access, ownership and recognition
Uni. Tokyo – Kimoto Masahide , MRI – Masayoshi Ishii, SMHI – Klaus Wyser,Colin Jones, KNMI – Wilco Hazeleger, IC3 – Francisco Doblas- Reyes, Virginie Guemas, MPI – Daniela Matei, Wolfgang Muller, Holger Pohlman, CCCMA – George Boer, Bill Merryfield, UKMO-Hadley – Doug Smith, Adam Scaife, READING UNI – Ed Hawkins, NRL – Judith Lean, David Rind, CERFACS – Christophe Cassou, IPSL – Juliette Mignot

17. Real Time Decadal Forecasts: 2012-2016 relative to 1971-2000
Effect of initialisation
Smith et al, Clim. Dyn., 2012

18. Decadal Prediction for CMIP6: a proposal
WGSIP, WGCM & CLIVAR developing decadal prediction expts for CMIP6 via Decadal Climate Prediction Panel (George Boer)

19. WGSIP activities summary
Growing number of seasonal hindcasts in the CHFP database (CMIP for seasonal)
Exciting results for extratropical winter predictability and a clear role for the stratosphere
Decadal hindcasts provided to CMIP5 and analyses appearing in literature
Real time decadal predictions being exchanged (Smith et al 2012)
A draft decadal prediction protocol for CMIP6 is being developed jointly by WGSIP/WGCM/CLIVAR following agreement amongst these groups via the Decadal Climate Prediction Panel