1. Policy to Mitigate Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability
James W. Hansen

2. The Big Picture What do you know about El Niño and La Niña?
From a policy perspective, how would you view El Niño and La Niña?
an impending disaster?
a degree of foreknowledge?
an opportunity?
…all of the above.

3. What would you do differently with advance information?
“…then there was famine in all the lands, but in all the land of Egypt there was bread.”
-- Genesis 41:54

4. What would you do differently with advance information?
Who are you?
What decisions do you make that are sensitive to climate?
What information does ENSO state give you?
What additional information do you need? How will you get it?
With whom do you need to cooperate?

5. INTERMISSION

6. climate predictability
What conditions must be in place for society to benefit from ENSO information?
climate predictability
human vulnerability
decision capacity
opportunity
Benefit results when prediction leads to decisions that reduce vulnerability to impacts of climate variability.

7. Preconditions for Benefit
vulnerability
decision capacity
predictability
opportunity
Vulnerability & motivation
Decision options
Predictability of climate
Communication
Institutions and policy
Forecast information is useful when it addresses need that is real and recognized. Decision makers must be aware of climate risk, and motivated to use forecasts to manage that risk.

8. Preconditions for Benefit
vulnerability
decision capacity
predictability
opportunity
Vulnerability & motivation
Decision options
Predictability of climate
Communication
Institutions and policy
Benefits are conditioned on the existence and understanding of decision options that are sensitive to information in forecasts, and compatible with goals and constraints.

9. Preconditions for Benefit
vulnerability
decision capacity
predictability
opportunity
Vulnerability & motivation
Decision options
Predictability of climate
Communication
Institutions and policy
Relevant components of climate variability must be predictable in relevant periods, at an appropriate scale, with sufficient accuracy and lead time for decisions.

10. Preconditions for Benefit
vulnerability
decision capacity
predictability
opportunity
Vulnerability & motivation
Decision options
Predictability of climate
Communication
Institutions and policy
Successful use requires that the right people receive, understand, and correctly interpret the right information at the right time, in a form that can be applied to their climate-sensitive decisions.

11. Preconditions for Benefit
vulnerability
decision capacity
predictability
opportunity
Vulnerability & motivation
Decision options
Predictability of climate
Communication
Institutions and policy
Sustained operational use of forecasts requires institutional commitment to provide information and other support, and policies that support institutions and farmers.

12. How will El Niño impacts us? The Attribution Problem
Societally-important impacts of ENSO?
Does El Niño imply adverse impacts?
Are impacts of El Niño & La Niña opposite?
Would you expect impacts of the next El Niño to be the same as the last El Niño?
Magnitude
Timing
Spatial patterns
Other oceans
Chaotic atmosphere

13. How will El Niño impacts us? The Attribution Problem
Temporal consistency
Probabilistic thinking
Appropriate use of time-series data
Statistical hypothesis testing
Spatial coherence
Mechanistic understanding
Secondary and tertiary impacts
Be open to surprise

14. How will El Niño impacts us? Ex-post vs. ex-ante
Losses that follow a climate shock
Possibly persistent impacts of coping responses
Ex-ante:
Opportunity costs associated with conservative strategies of risk-averse decision makers in anticipation of the possibility of a shock

15. What would you do differently?
Forecasts have no intrinsic value.
Improved outcomes associated with improved decisions do.

16. What would you do differently? Sectors
Agriculture
Food insecurity early warning and response
Water resource management
Health
Vectors
Sanitation
Energy
Demand
Hydropower supply
Disaster management

17. What would you do differently? Scales
Examples from agriculture:
Field-scale crop management
Farm-scale resource allocation
Community decisions, e.g., Florida potato farmers
Watershed-scale irrigation distribution
Sub-national scale food stock management
National requests for international food aid
Individual vs. market vs. vs. public policy

18. What would you do differently? Scales

19. What would you do differently? Hazard vs. Development
What is more valuable, a skillful forecast of adverse or favorable climatic conditions?
Hazard perspective:
Crisis response
Ex-post impacts
Development perspective
Managing variability
Includes ex-ante impact
Both address “risk management”
Competing or complementary?

20. Safety Nets “Cargo Nets” HARDSHIP OPPORTUNITY FOREFITED CRISIS
Disaster aid
Coping strategies
Safety Nets
Intensification
“Cargo Nets”
HARDSHIP
OPPORTUNITY
FOREFITED
CRISIS

21. Where Does Public Policy Enter?
Policy drives institutions.
Institutional mandate
Allocation of public resources
Policy constrains or enhances flexibility, therefore resilience, of decision makers.
Policy influences overall economy.
Policy influences risk.
Tactical, climate-sensitive policy decisions.

22. Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions
Crisis response
Crises tend to affect diverse populations and sectors, crossing traditional institutional mandates. Crisis response often calls for coordination or consolidation among diverse institutions.

23. Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions
Crisis response
Disaster preparedness
Advanced preparation improves effectiveness and reduces cost of response, but requires ongoing political will, and solid probabilistic understanding of potential impacts.

24. Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions
Crisis response
Disaster preparedness
Institutional support for prediction
Primarily national meteorological services. Due to cost of ocean monitoring and dynamic prediction capacity, international institutions play a role. Met services must support meteorological observation networks.

25. Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions
Crisis response
Disaster preparedness
Institutional support for prediction
Institutional support for communication
Goals should be timeliness, equitable access, relevance, and honest characterization of uncertainty. Options include internet, media, extension services. Media low cost but few safeguards against abuse.

26. Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions
Crisis response
Disaster preparedness
Institutional support for prediction
Institutional support for communication
Institutional support for individual/community response
Key questions: Is information enough? Based in stakeholder or climate institutions? Existing or new institutions? Key challenge: Gap between meteorological and stakeholder institutional networks.

27. Thank you