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Cotton Economic Update National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Amelia Island, Florida August 24-26, 2009 National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board.

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Presentation on theme: "Cotton Economic Update National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Amelia Island, Florida August 24-26, 2009 National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board."— Presentation transcript:

1 Cotton Economic Update National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Amelia Island, Florida August 24-26, 2009 National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Amelia Island, Florida August 24-26, 2009

2 Has the Economy Bottomed? Fed Chairman Bernanke thinks so – After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, …,and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good. –the economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first... Fed Chairman Bernanke thinks so – After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, …,and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good. –the economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first...

3 % Change in Real GDP 3 rd Q?

4 Cotton & Textile Demand

5 Textile Trade Declined thru May (Totals as reported by Global Trade Atlas)

6 US Cotton Domestic Consumption

7 More Modest Drop in US Spending for Clothing & Shoes

8 US Cotton Mill Use

9 International Markets

10 Update on Key Countries W Africa – Lower production & exports Brazil – Some quality concerns with current harvest; expected shift to soybeans Central Asia – Smaller crops due to reduced area Pakistan – No widespread concerns on production; new support to textile industry & some improvements in spinning margins W Africa – Lower production & exports Brazil – Some quality concerns with current harvest; expected shift to soybeans Central Asia – Smaller crops due to reduced area Pakistan – No widespread concerns on production; new support to textile industry & some improvements in spinning margins

11 China Cotton Supply & Use

12 China Cotton Price vs. A Index

13 Indias Min Support Price

14 India Cotton Supply & Use

15 Cotton Exports

16 US Production

17 09 Cotton Acres @ 9.05 Million

18 US Acres & Relative Prices

19 US Cotton Production

20 Cotton Crop Conditions

21 US Supply & Demand 2009/10 Beg Stocks6.106.0-6.2 Production13.2113.2-14.0 Total Supply19.3119.2-20.2 Mill Use3.503.2-3.5 Exports10.2010.0-11.0 Ending Stocks5.604.7-7.0

22 Cotton Prices

23 Summary

24 Recovery in Mill Use?

25 Drawdown in World Stocks?

26 Have US Acres Bottomed? 10 ratios based on current Dec & Nov 10 futures contracts

27 Merchants Ginners Cottonseed Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers


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