1. Demographic Analysis and Evaluation
Workshop on
Demographic Analysis and Evaluation 1

2. Fertility: The Own-children Technique C. Step by Step with FERT

3. The Own-children Method: Preliminary Steps
Check for text-viewer software and capability to read a data dictionary
If needed, download and install CSPro or IMPS
To read CSPro/IMPS dictionary
To view data file itself
Or NoteTab-Light, to view data file.
Download and install East-West Center’s FERT package

4. Preliminary Steps
FERT requires mortality for reverse-surviving children and mothers backwards for up to 15 years prior to the census or survey
Prepare life tables for the 15-year period leading up to the census or survey for which a data file is available
Or be prepared to assume 1 to 15 both-sexes life tables based on Coale-Demeny model mortality for that period

5. Identify Files
Identify datafile
For example, countryX.dat
Identify data dictionary
For example, countryX.di, country.dcf
Ensure that only population records are in the datafile. All household records should be eliminated before proceeding.

6. Identify Variable Ranges
Using data dictionary, identify and write down the location of key variables needed for own-children estimation
For each variable, list the ID, starting location on the data record and field length
Example:
Variable Start Field length Codes ID

7. Identify Variable Ranges
Variable Start Field length Codes ID
Rel head
2 spouse
3 child …
8 non-rel
Sex male
2 female

8. Identify Variable Ranges
Required variables ID
Age
Sex ( codes)
Relation to head (codes)
Optional variables
Marital status
Subsetting (“tabulation control” variables)
Mother’s person number
Children ever born
Children surviving
Weighting factor

9. Running MATCHTAB
FERT contains two programs that together allow application of the own-children technique
MATCHTAB
OWNCH
Change to subdirectory EWPOP and copy FERT.exe to same subdirectory as datafile
Run c:\subd\FERT or go to DOS, change to subd, then execute FERT

10. Running MATCHTAB
Choose MATCHTAB from menu
If this is the first run with datafile countryX.dat, specify “keyboard.” Thereafter, when using the same files, choose “disk.”
Specify location of datafile, age of oldest child, age of oldest mother, and method of matching

11. Running MATCHTAB
Specify location of variables needed by MATCHTAB
ID, relationship to head of household, sex, age
If available, marital status, children ever born, children surviving, and variable to be used to create estimates for subpopulations
Do not specify residence as part of the ID field and again to create subpopulation estimates.

12. Running MATCHTAB
Specify stage 3 input file to be created; e.g., XOWNCH3.st3
Specify statistics file to be created; e.g., XOWNCH3.stt
Save inputs to file – YES
Specify stage 1 specifications file to be created; e.g. XOWNCH3.st1

13. Running MATCHTAB
3 files are generated and saved.
Basic input file is XOWNCH3.st1
Datafile needed for stage 3 / own children estimation is XOWNCH3.st3
The MATCHTAB statistics are shown in the XOWNCH3.stt file.
If more than % of children are not matched, results should be treated with care.
<Esc> back to main menu to Quit

14. Running MATCHTAB for Orientia
3 files are generated and saved.
Basic input file is Ori.st1
Datafile needed for stage 3 / own children estimation is Ori.st3
The MATCHTAB statistics are shown in the Ori.stt file.
<Esc> back to main menu to Quit

15. Running OWNCH3
From the FERT main menu, choose OWNCH3
Choose “disk” and XOWNCH3.st3 as file to load
For survey/census year, choose any year up to If year is after 1999, choose a “dummy” value; e.g., by subtracting 10 years from a census conducted in to get a year earlier than 1999 (2000 – 10 = 1990)

16. Running OWNCH3
Data requirements:
Census or survey year 1990 or earlier
Age ranges of mother and child were chosen in constructing XOWNCH3.st3
Sex ratio at birth
Life table type and values
If M (model life table), region, number of tables and level(s) defined as both-sexes e(0)
If L (empirical life table), q(0) through q(80+), L(0) and L(80+)

17. Running OWNCH3
Data requirements (continued):
Number of intervals (for which fertility estimates are to be produced). 3, 4, or 5 are common choices.
Intervals CAN overlap.
Example: Example:

18. Running OWNCH3
Save life tables to file; e.g., XOWNCH3.LT
Pieces come together
Number of women are from XOWNCH3.stt
Number of children and number of non-own children are from XOWNCH3.stt
Underenumeration factors may be entered (calculated as true number / reported number); e.g., for 10 percent undercount
Re-save stage-3 analysis file (XOWNCH3.st3)

19. Running OWNCH3
<PgDn> to review output
Review single-year fertility estimates
Save to a file after viewing; e.g., XOWNCH.sin or XOC-sin.out
Review grouped (“interval”) fertility estimates
Save to a file after viewing; e.g., XOWNCH.mlt or XOC-mlt.out

20. Running OWNCH3
Re-scale TFRs from births per 1,000 to births per woman
Re-date estimates for years later than 1999
Re-date estimates to fraction of year working from reference date of census or survey, subtracting 0.5 years to place estimate at midpoint of year preceding the census or survey
Graphic representation of output

21. Using the Own-children Output
Graphing results
Open output files (*.sin, *.mlt) in Excel for graphing
Graph and review single-year TFR estimates as well as the multi-year estimates
Superimposing TFR estimates from multiple censuses or a mix of censuses and surveys allows analyst to evaluate the quality of those estimates

22. Own-children TFR Estimates from the 1999, 1989 and 1979 Kenyan Censuses

23. Own-children TFR Estimates Based on 1993 and 1998 NDHSs, Philippines

24. Fertility: The Own-children Method
Pointers:
Graphing results
Use single-year estimates and combine multiple source series in a single chart if possible
Modify the output specification
Change output specs in XOWNCH3.st3 to eliminate questionable estimates; e.g., for year 0 and years 14,15 prior to census/survey. Re-create output files; e.g., XOC-sin2.out, XOC-mlt2.out

25. Using Own-children Output
Adjust assumed mortality
Copy XOWNCH3.st3 to new filename; e.g., XOWNCH3L.st3.
Modify XOWNCH3L.st3. Copy from PRN file created in Excel using Courier new, pt=8, column width=8, fixed decimals for q(x)=5, right justified to create an alternative series of ASFR and TFR estimates based on better mortality inputs.
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26. Fertility for Subpopulations
Specify a subpopulation – such as residence
Copy XOWNCH3.st3 to new filename;
e.g., XOC3-R.st3.
Modify XOC3-R.st3.
Specify Tabulation Control Variable in
OC3-R.st3 using col. location and var. width
Specifications requiring grouping of values may need to be done outside of OWNCH3 because of 20 character limit

27. Fertility for Subpopulations
Modify XOC3-R.st3 (continued)
Mortality may need to be re-specified
<PgDn> to run.
Save to new output files; e.g.,
XOC3-R.sin, XOC3-R.mlt
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