1. Probability Day One - Review
Objective: You will review likelihood, simulations, theoretical and experimental probability by completing notes and an activity. Vocabulary: Outcome - A possible result. Probability - A number between 0 and 1 that describes the likelihood that an outcome will occur. Experimental Probability - A probability that is determined through experimentation. Theoretical Probability - A probability obtained by analyzing a situation.
Warm-up: If a bag is filled with 3 red marbles and 8 green marbles, how likely is it that you will draw a red marble from the bag? A. As likely as not B. Equally likely C. As unlikely as not D. Certain What numbers go with each answer choice listed above? CW: notes on likelihood What Do You Expect Activity HW: WKSH

2. Probability Day Two – Samples and Outcomes
Objective: You will make and utilize a tree diagram (compound probability) to demonstrate your understanding of samples and outcomes. Vocabulary: Tree Diagram - A diagram used to determine the number of possible outcomes in a probability situation CW: What Do You Expect Lesson 1 HW: Complete yesterdays WKSH
Warm-up: 1. How can probability help you when playing games at a fair? 2. When you roll a number cube two times, what are all the possible outcomes? Use an organized list to find the outcomes (tree diagram) 3. What is the probability of both numbers being even? 4. Both numbers being odd? 5. One odd and one even?

3. Probability Day Three - Payoff
Objective: You will determine payoff of a game using theoretical probability by playing a game with a partner. Vocabulary: Payoff - The number of points (or dollars or other objects of value) a player in a game receives for a particular outcome.
Warm-up:
Probability is written as a __________.
Out of 6,000 radios tested, 12 are defective. What is the estimated total number of defective radios in a group of 250,000?
CW: Lab: Multiplication Game
HW: Connected Mathematics 2: What Do You Expect? Problem 1.3, p. 13

4. Probability Day Four – Area Models
Objective: You will use an area model to find compound probability. Vocabulary: Area Model - A diagram in which fractions of the area of the diagram correspond to probabilities in a situation. CW: What Do You Expect, pg HW: What Do You Expect, pg.26 (WKSH 2.3)
Warm-up: 1. Raul has 4 pairs of shoes to choose from each day. He wants to find the experimental probability of choosing his favorite pair of shoes at random. Which simulation should Raul use? A. Tossing a coin B. Rolling a number cube C. Spinning a spinner with 4 equal sections D. Drawing chips from a bag with 8 different colored chips 2. If Mary chooses a point in the square, what is the probability that it is not in the circle? Radius is 6in
Problem 2.2 can be tricky for students to visualize. Read through Page 24 with the class and work through Getting Ready for Problem 2.2. Help struggling students develop a good simulation of the problem. Allow students to complete parts A and B of the problem in pairs. After discussing, work as a whole group to complete parts C and D and then in pairs again for part E.

5. Expected Value
Objective: You will determine the expected value when given a real life situation with your table mates. CW: What do You Expect pg HW: Geometric Probability WKSH
Warm-up: 1. If Nishi's free throw percentage had been 30%, what would be the theoretical probability of her scoring zero points? One point? Two points? 2. Jason is tossing a fair coin. He tosses the coin ten times and it lands on heads eight times. If Jason tosses the coin an eleventh time, what is the probability that it will land on heads?
Solution:
The probability would be 1/2. The result of the eleventh toss does not depend on the previous results.

6. Binomial Outcomes
Objective: You will calculate binomial outcomes of events with your group. CW: What Do You Expect pg. 50 – 52 HW: WKSH Review
Warm-up: Come in and be ready to check homework and begin group work (What Do You Expect)