1. Unrisked Results Alpha Prospect – Unrisked Excedance Probability
100%
100
80%
60%
Excedance Probability
40%
Economic Minimum
20%
Slide 31
From the hundreds of combinations, we can develop this plot
It is called an excedance probability chart
There is 100% probability of finding zero or more million barrels of oil
This chart tells me there is a 50% chance of finding 200 MBO or more, and
A 20% chance of finding the 275 MBO
Given that are economic minimum is 100 MBO, there is a 75% chance of finding the economic minimum
These are called “unrisked” results – these are OK if every component of the HC system is working, i.e., there is a source that generated HC, there is a trap, we have migration pathways, etc. 0%
100
200
300
400
Million Barrels of Oil
50% Chance of finding 200 MBO or more
75% Chance of finding the economic minimum
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
L14 – Prospect Analysis