1. Climate Change and Agriculture in Central Asia
Jovidon Aliev, Research Collaborator, IFPRI Collaborative Research and Capacity Strengthening Program on Agricultural Policy and Food Security in Central Asia

2. OUTLINE Central Asia climate overview and climate change effects
Climate services (in the example of Tajikistan)
Agriculture in Central Asia and current challenges
Projection of future climate change in Central Asia
Assessment of future climate change impact on agriculture and food security in Central Asia
Adoption of CSA practices to build resilience

3. Central Asia climate overview
Territory: 4 mln. km2
Population ~ 60 million
Climate is predominantly arid and semi-arid
Agriculture highly dependent on irrigation
Stock of the major transboundary rivers formed from snow and glaciers in upstream countries
Source:

4. Climate change effects
Central Asia, as a landlocked and predominantly arid and semi-arid region, is among the regions that is highly exposed to climate change.
The climate change effects are clearly observed in Central Asia over the past decades and are expressed in rising temperature trends and changes in precipitation amounts and patterns.
Average temperature increase between in CA countries: Kazakhstan 0.3°C, Kyrgyzstan 0.9°C, Tajikistan 0.7°C and Uzbekistan 0.8°C (Akramov, 2016). Throughout the Central Asia is °C per decade for past three decades (Hu et al., 2014).
Area and volume of glaciers have decreased significantly. For instance, in the past 60 years, area of glaciers of Tajikistan have decreased by 30% and their volume by 20% (Water for life conference materials, Dushanbe 2015).

5. Climate change effects
Average precipitation increase between is from 2.6 mm to 3.7 mm per decade in different parts of CA
Significant change is in precipitation pattern—less precipitation during vegetation period
Evaporation is higher due to temperature increase, which increases demand on irrigation water
Precipitation change in Tajikistan
Source: WDI, 2015.

6. Climate services in Tajikistan
The main agency on providing agriculture climate services in Tajikistan is the Department on Agrometeorology of the Hydrometeorology Agency
Data collected from 56 meteorology stations and 16 agrometeorology posts nationwide
Activities as well include phenology observation of main crops
The Department of Agrometeorology issues monthly and decade reports
The capacity of Hydrometeorology is being strengthened with donor organizations’ support, which is strengthening the technical capacity of staff and renovation of equipment
No sustainable system of climate service delivery to target beneficiaries (farms, extension and advisory services providers, etc.)

7. Agriculture in central Asia
Agriculture is one of the important sectors of the economy for CA countries
Share of Agriculture in GDP of CA countries are: Tajikistan (22%), Uzbekistan (19%), Kyrgyzstan (18%), Kazakhstan (5%) for
Main agriculture crops in the region are cereals, cotton, vegetables and fruits
Share of rural population in CA countries: Tajikistan (74%), Kyrgyzstan (65%), Uzbekistan (64%) and Kazakhstan (48%)
Share of employment in agriculture sector as of total employment: Tajikistan (>50%), Uzbekistan (34%), Kyrgyzstan (30%) and Kazakhstan (25%)

8. Challenges for agriculture
CA countries are the most vulnerable among 28 countries in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region: (Fey et al., 2010)
High level of current sensitivity is due to the following factors that have a strong negative impact on the productivity of the agriculture sector:
declining agriculture infrastructure and assets (lack of machinery, access to market, finance, processing, etc.);
environmental challenges due to unsustainable and inefficient use of resources (land degradation, soil salinization, water losses, etc.).
Countries
Scores
Sensitivity
Adaptation Capacity
Vulnerability
Tajikistan 1 27
Kyrgyzstan 2 25 3
Uzbekistan 26 6
Kazakhstan 13 17 16

9. Challenges for agriculture
Recently established numerous smallholder farms have limited adaptation capacities
At the same time, agriculture in the region is already facing the challenges of climate change:
climate change is negatively influencing the resilience of the existing varieties to changing environment (higher temperatures, droughts)
new plant diseases and pests observed in the region
higher demand on irrigation water due to higher temperature and evaporation and changed pattern of precipitation
Tuta absoluta

10. Projection of future cc impact on agriculture and food security
IFPRI’s IMPACT (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade) model used for assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security
Four climate scenarios are used to simulate the future (up to 2050) climate change impact on agriculture in Central Asia: HadGEM, MIROC, IPSL and GFDL (RCP 8.5)
In the analysis, the average effects of four climate change scenarios (CC) is compared with reference (NOCC) scenario for major crops grown in the region and all scenarios assume no adaptation measures to climate change

11. HADGEM CC SCENARIO (2050 vs 2000)
Temperature change, Co
Precipitation change, mm
Developed by Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, UK
Predicts the highest temperature in the whole region, severe temperature increase in the eastern part, precipitation decrease in east and west parts, small increase in the central part, considerable increase in some areas in the south

12. MIROC CC SCENARIO (2050 vs 2000)
Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate developed at the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research
Predicts highest temperature increase in all parts of the region, especially in the southeast, decrease of precipitation in central and severely in south part, precipitation increase in north
Temperature change, Co
Precipitation change, mm

13. IPSL CC SCENARIO (2050 vs 2000)
Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) Global Climate Modelling Centre (France)
Predicts significant temperature increase in the whole region, especially in the central and southern regions, considerable precipitation decrease especially in the south, a mountainous area, which is main source of water of CA
Temperature change, Co
Precipitation change, mm

14. GFDL CC Scenario (2050 vs 2000)
Temperature change, Co
Precipitation change, mm
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University Forrestal Campus
Predicts the comparatively slight temperature increase in the whole region but significant temperature increase in southeast Tajikistan, precipitation increase in northeast and significant decrease in the south

15. Yield change in cc vs nocc (2050)
Crops
Countries
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Wheat, irrigated
0.8%
12.1%
-7.6%
-13.8%
Wheat, rainfed
-1.0%
5.6%
-16.2%
Barley, irrigated
-8.2%
-4.8%
-5.1%
0.4%
Barley, rainfed
0.5%
7.3%
3.7%
Maize
29.9%
-21.5%
-34.7%
Rice
15.9%
14.5%
-1.1%
-8.1%
Cotton
3.0%
3.1%
1.4%
-4.1%
Potato
-15.5%
36.4%
3.9%
-30.7%
Vegetables
5.2%
31.3%
-8.7%
-1.3%
Fruits
-2.6%
29.8%
-10.7%
-3.1%
Source: Own compilation based on IMACT model results

16. Food security in cc vs nocc (2050)
Indicators
Countries
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Food availability per capita
-1.8%
-2.2%
-2.1%
-1.7%
Calories availability per capita
-1.6%
-1.9%
Source: Own compilation based on IMACT model results

17. CSA practices to build resilience
Review of policy of CA countries shows that the climate change issues are included in legislation and strategies in line with the international requirements.
The contribution of CA countries’ agriculture on GHG emission is comparatively low.
However, measures have to be taken into account to strengthen the resilience at all levels: international, regional, national, farms and households
Awareness raised on climate change and adaptation technologies of all stakeholders—especially smallholder farms
R&D and Extension and Advisory Services
Agrometeorology data for forecasting of crop production and diseases
Introduction of water saving irrigation technologies (terracing, drip irrigation, etc. in addition to the need for irrigation infrastructure rehabilitation)
Introduction of heat-tolerant and dry-tolerant varieties of crops

18. Thank you for your attention!
Jovidon Aliev,
Research Collaborator,
IFPRI Collaborative Research and Capacity Strengthening Program on Agricultural Policy and Food Security in Central Asia