1. Returned Foreign Fighters: An Indefinite Threat?
David Malet American University August 21, 2018

2. The Foreign Fighter Project (2016 data)
Research
The Foreign Fighter Project (2016 data)
352 civil conflicts
91 cases of foreign fighters (26%)
Increase from 70 (21%) in 2007 data
Jihadis growing proportion but still only about half

3. Largest Mobilizations
Spain 1930s ~60k
Soviet Union 1910s-20s ~50k
China 1930s-40s ~40k
Syria/Iraq 2010s ~40k
Afghanistan 1970s-present ~25k
Central Africa 1990s-present ~10k
Israel/Palestine 1940s ~10k
South America s ~9k
Texas/Mexico 1830s ~6k
Iraq s ~5k

4. Research

5. Research

6. Conflict Outcomes (Updated Data)
Civil Conflicts All Conflicts (352) Foreign Fighters (91)
Incumbent Victory (59%) 37 (40%)
Insurgent Victory 95 (27%) 31(34%)
Stalemate 20 (5%) 4 (5%)
Ongoing 30 (9%) 19 (21%)
Victory ratio essentially unchanged since 2005, but double the number of foreign fighter conflicts are currently ongoing
Chu and Braithwaite (2017) lower government victory rates vs. non-local foreign fighters

8. Lags in Attacks by Extremist Returnees (LATER) Malet and Hayes
230 Jihadis who left Western countries for foreign fighting or training
Return data by year for 134
Return data by month for 90
time period – builds from JPIW and new data from 12 Western nations

11. Return-Attack Lag Time (Months)
Mean
(vs total) 9 10
Median 5
Mode 4