1. MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET REPORTS
AN EXAMPLE OF USING RESEARCH TO FORWARD PLANNING FOR YOUR ORGANIZATION
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2. Manitoba economy - 167,700 job openings between 2016 and 2022,
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
Manitoba economy - 167,700 job openings between 2016 and 2022,
67 per cent of these openings replace worker retirements and deaths.
forecasts predict approximately 24,000 total job openings per year.
Manitoba’s economy will see 165,500 new workers join labour force between 2016 and 2022
approximately 23,600 workers a year.
Manitoba economy - 166,500 job openings between 2017 and 2023
68 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths
forecasts predict approximately 23,800 total job openings per year.
Manitoba’s economy will see 163,500 new workers join labour force between 2017 and 2023
approximately 23,400 workers a year.
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3. LABOUR MARKET REPORT 2016-2022 LABOUR MARKET REPORT2017-2023
unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.8 % in 2016 to 5.3 % in 2022.
adjusting for inflation, economy expected to grow an average of 1.8 % annually from 2016 to 2022.
Manitoba’s labour market expected to lift hourly labour income an average of 2.3 % annually over the next seven years.
Over the same period, expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.7 % annually.
unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.3 % points between 2017 and 2023.
adjusting for inflation, economy expected to grow an average of 1.5 % annually from 2017 to 2023.
Manitoba’s labour market expected to lift hourly labour income an average of 2.0 % annually over the next seven years.
Over the same period, expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.2 % annually.
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4. 167,700 job openings created between 2016 and 2022.
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
Total Labour Demand
167,700 job openings created between 2016 and 2022.
Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic growth) is forecasted to create 55,000 job openings (33 %).
Replacement demand (job openings from retirements and deaths) is forecasted to create 112,700 job openings (67 %)
The occupation group most expected job openings: sales and service at 33,300 or **19.9 % of total Mb job openings outlook.
166,500 job openings created between 2017 and 2023.
Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic growth) is forecasted to create 53,900 job openings (32 %).
Replacement demand (job openings from retirements and deaths) is forecasted to create 112,600 job openings (68 %)
The occupation group most expected job openings: sales and service at 32,000 or **19.2 % of total Mb job openings outlook.
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5. management occupations at 23,100 or 13.8 %.
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
Job openings: business, finance and administration estimated at 26,300 or 15.7 %;
management occupations at 23,100 or 13.8 %.
sales & service: highest number of job openings expected for the following sub-groups:
cleaners, retail salespersons, and food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations.
Job openings: business, finance and administration occupations estimated at 27,400 or 16.5 %;
education, law and social, community and government services at 23,800 or 14.3 %.
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6. educational requirements of the 167,700 forecasted job openings:
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
replacement demand > than expansion demand over the forecast period. (except health occupations, where expansion demand is greater)
educational requirements of the 167,700 forecasted job openings:
Approx. **62 % to require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, university, trade certification).
remaining 38 % may not necessitate post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements.
replacement demand > than expansion demand over the forecast period. (except health, expansion demand almost = replacement demand)
educational requirements of the 166,500 forecasted job openings:
approx. **62 % to require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, university, trade certification).
remaining 38 % may not necessitate post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements
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7. LABOUR MARKET REPORT 2016-2022 LABOUR MARKET REPORT 2017-2023
Total Labour Supply
• 165,500 workers over the forecast period to offset the total labour demand.
• consist of 93,400 new entrants, 38,100 net in-migrants and 34,000 net other in-mobility workers.
• total labour projected to increase by 52,800 persons over the forecast period.
• 163,500 workers over the forecast period to offset the total labour demand.
• consist of 92,500 new entrants, 38,000 net in-migrants and 33,000 net other in-mobility workers.
• total labour force projected to increase by 50,900 persons over the forecast period.
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8. Gaps in Demand versus Supply
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
Gaps in Demand versus Supply
Overall, Mb’s labour market expected to remain balanced
overall supply for labour = labour demand.
However, labour shortages/surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of the province.
In each year from 2016 to 2022, labour supply > labour demand by an average of 3,300 workers.
overall supply for labour adequate to meet labour demand.
In each year from 2017 to 2023, labour supply > labour demand by an average of 6,100 workers.
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9. closes to about 2,200 over the last four years of the forecast period
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
gap is more significant between 2016 and 2018; with an average of 4,800**
closes to about 2,200 over the last four years of the forecast period
supply estimated to outpace demand by 2,000** workers in 2022.
Over forecast period: total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 2,200 workers.
the gap is more significant in 2017 and 2018; with an average of 7,400**
closes to about 5,600 over the last five years of the forecast period
supply estimated to outpace demand by 5,800** workers in 2023.
Over forecast period: total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 3,100 workers.
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10. MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET REPORT 2016-2022
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11. MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET REPORT 2017-2023
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12. Why do the numbers change?
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
Why do the numbers change?
As economy changes, the macro-economic assumptions and data underlying this report are updated regularly with the best data available at the time.
For example, economic changes like oil-price decrease of 2014/15 and ongoing, weaker than expected domestic economic performance, have widespread implications for the labour market in Mb, Canada & around the world.
every update covers a new seven-year period.
As a result, direct comparison of the labour supply and demand forecasts year-over-year is not advised.
SOURCES OF LABOUR SUPPLY
new entrants (persons entering the labour force for the first time), 92,500
Net in-migration refers to people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job. 38,000
deaths and retirements, which subtract from the labour force - 16,100
net other mobility (all other sources of change in labour force), which can add or subtract from the labour force 33,000
Overall, Manitoba recorded a net migration gain of 15,054 people
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13. Unforeseen events can greatly influence anticipated outcome.
LABOUR MARKET REPORT
a large portion of the province’s estimated population gain in 2016 was the result of immigration. Net international migration to Manitoba for 2016 was 15,135 individuals.
“supply requirements estimated by the models may not be forthcoming in reality”
Unforeseen events can greatly influence anticipated outcome.
Globe and Mail September 5, 2018
Quote:
“Economists said that if Canada and the United States cannot hash out a new version of the 24-year old trilateral trade pact, the fallout could deliver a significant blow to Canadian economic growth, substantial job losses, a slump in the Canadian dollar and a serious loss in investor confidence.”
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14. FINAL COMMENTS
Research can be very useful when planning. However, you must be very aware of the fact that not all research is equal.
Good research is research that can be confirmed by additional non- partisan research being able to replicate results.
The results of research can be affected by many factors.
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