1. IRAQ’S FUTURE ENERGY PLANS
Investment in Iraq Stock Exchange
14-15 May 2014
The Ritz-Carlton DIFC – Dubai , UAE
IRAQ’S FUTURE ENERGY PLANS
Thamir Abbas Al-Ghadhban
Chairman - Prime Minister’s Advisory Commission

2. Overview Introduction Oil and Gas Refining Industry
Recent developments
Present status
Oil and Gas
Ramping up oil production.
Maximization of gas utilization.
Refining Industry
Supply and demand
Expansion and upgrading of refineries
Financing energy projects
Investment per sector
Source of financing

3. Recent developments in the oil upstream sector
Oil development contracts
Ramp – up of production & export rates
2 Bid rounds Oil fields IOCs & NOCs: Bp, ExxonMobil, Eni, Shell CNPC, CNOOC Lukoil, Gazprom Petronas , Sonangol

4. INES proposed 3 production planning scenarios
High Production
(~13 mmbpd plateau by 2017 and rapid decline beyond 2023)
Medium Production
(~9 mmbpd Plateau by 2020)
Low Production
(~6 mmbpd Plateau by 2025)

5. Main upstream challenges
Crude oil
Security of oil and gas facilities
Deciding on oil production plateau
On time development of oil fields
Development of infrastructure
On time construction of water injection project
Diversification of export outlets
Marketing of increasing volumes of crudes

6. Assessment of Future Production Capacity
Targeted production capacity 8-9 million b/d by 2020
Targets meet country’s need for revenues, country’s proven oil reserves
Factors determining actual production rates:
Global energy fundamentals,
Call on OPEC supply,
Iraq’s own need for maximization of the country’s revenues.

7. Planned Crude Production

8. Planned Export Capacity

9. Future Export Infrastructure

11. Iraq Role in Global Market
Current crude oil market trends provide an opportunity for Iraq to increase production
Some OPEC member countries are facing challenges to maintain liquids production.
It’s expected that Iraq will be the biggest contributor to meet rise in demand.
IEA: Serious implications if Iraq’s production stays at current 3.0 mmbd, leading to significant rise in oil import price and price volatility.
Expensive capacity addition makes it imperative to differentiate between surplus and idle capacity.

12. Design and Available Capacities of Iraq Refineries, 2013
Design Capacity (kbpd)
Available Capacity
(kbpd)
Baiji
310
230
Satellite units 90 70
NRC Total
400
300
Doura
180
140 50
MRC Total
250
190
Basra
210
135 60 35
SRC Total
270
170
Total
920
660
North Refineries Company
NRC
Midland Refineries Company 1
MRC
Baghdad 2
SRC 3
South Refineries Company

13. Future Growth in Demand for Oil Products

14. Future Refining Capacity

15. New projects for meeting future demand
Capacity addition
2.Required investment
3.Model contract
New refinery
Refining capacity
1000 b/d
Remarks
Kerbala
140
awarded
Nassiryia
300
Under negotiation
Amara
150
Offered for investment
Kirkuk
upgrades 60
Under implementation
Total
800

16. The Gas Industry Objectives & Challenges
Timely construction of additional gas processing facilities
Expanding gas pipeline network
Increasing Free Gas supply
Providing required investment
New Gas Projects:
Basrah Gas Company
Bid Round -2 new gas facilities
Bid Round -3 fields development
Gas exploration

17. Existing Gas Processing Capacity
Gas Utilization
Net raw Gas Supply and Gas Processing Capacity
bscfd, Associated Gas
Current focus on developing the gas gathering and processing infrastructure of BGC (Zubair, Rumaila and West Qurna 1),
Additional large scale facilities planned
New processing facilities and infrastructure for associated gas from green fields
Future gas export projects
Net Raw Gas Supply1) – High Production Scenario
Comments
Net Raw Gas Supply1) – Medium Production Scenario
Gas Processing Capacity (MoO Plans)
Potential Gas Flaring
Flaring ends as gas processing capacity catches up with production
Earlier the infrastructure is built, the lower the flaring
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Existing Gas Processing Capacity
Ahdab
Gas Plant
Badra
Gas Plant
BGC Expansion, W.Q.2 Plant, Majnoon Plant, Gharraf Plant, Missan Plant and Halfaya Plant

18. (net of on-site consumption1))
Surplus gas supply is expected as gas infrastructure is developed and as gas production increases
Raw Gas Supply vs. Consumption
bscfd
2012 – 2014
2015 onwards
Demand is constrained due to lack of gas infrastructure; potential for increase in flaring
Domestic demand is unconstrained but there is a potential for a temporary excess gas
Raw Gas Supply
(net of on-site consumption1))
6.6
6.8
Temporary Potential Excess
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Domestic Dry Gas and LPG Demand

19. Required Investment Investment per sector Source of financing
Main financial challenges

21. Thank you