1. Estimating deepsea, shortsea and transhipment volumes A data model for container traffic through the European North Range ports
Sönke Maatsch, ISL

2. Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
Content
Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic
Decomposing the North Range ports’ seaborne traffic – ISL STM
Determining the hinterland distribution
Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM
Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)
Future development of the model
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

3. (transport statistics)
1. Data sources
A) Transport statistics
NR ports’ modal split
transport statistics
Survey
(B/Ls)
Survey
(transport statistics)
NR ports’ seaborne traffic
Survey
B) Trade statistics A B
Trade by origin/destination (e.g. UN, national statistics)
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

4. 2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ seaborne traffic
extra-European container traffic (→ EITM)
intra-European container traffic
ISL Shortsea Shipping Survey:
survey among the most important shortsea operators
main question: transhipment shares for each relation
aim: estimating shortsea-land and transhipment traffic per relation (port-to-port or port-to-country level)
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

5. 2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ maritime traffic
Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005)
extra-European O/D
intra-European O/D
deepsea-transhipment
shortsea transhipment
shortsea-land
sea
deepsea-land:
15.8 mill TEU
transhipment:
10.5 mill TEU
shortsea-land:
4.7 mill TEU
port
shortsea-transh.:
0.1 mill TEU
land
total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU ?
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

6. 3. Determining the hinterland distribution
Modal split and hinterland distribution
Modal split statistics from the ports:
distribution of hinterland traffic by modes
for some ports: modal split by hinterland regions
Transport statistics:
distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for barge and rail
truck traffic: not available or only available for transport companies registered in the respective country
Hinterland survey:
distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for truck
modal splits per region
expert interviews / plausibility checks
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

7. 3. Determining the hinterland distribution
Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005)
extra-European O/D
intra-European O/D
deepsea-transhipment
shortsea transhipment
shortsea-land
sea
deepsea-land:
15.8 mill TEU
transhipment:
10.5 mill TEU
shortsea-land:
4.7 mill TEU
port
shortsea-transh.:
0.1 mill TEU
land
total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU ?
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

8. Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
Content
Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic
Decomposing the North Range ports’ maritime traffic – ISL STM
Determining the hinterland distribution
Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM
Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)
Future development of the model
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

9. 4. Linking trade and transport data
Major challenges:
from value to volume (tonnes)
from tonnes to laden containers
inclusion of empties
estimation of transport chains
first vs. final destination (distribution centres)
Tools used for the North European Container Traffic Model:
Global Insight World Trade Service (WTS) for a. and b.
Imbalance analyses for c.
Global Insight European Inland Transportation Model (EITM) and ISL Shortsea Traffic Model (STM) for d.
Hinterland survey for d. and e.
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

10. 4. Linking trade and transport data
Estimation of transport chains
e.g. imports from North East Asia to Poland from WTS: laden TEU 2 40
Transhipment
Barge 25
Truck* 5
Rail 1 30 70
Hamburg
Rotterdam
Bremen/Bhv. 20
Antwerp
150 1
Split by ports based on their market share on the respective relation and in hinterland regions 2
Split by mode based on preceding estimations for each port
* Including containers transported to DCs near Hamburg and then on to Poland.
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

11. 4. Linking trade and transport data
Imbalance analysis for empty containers
Basis for estimation:
difference between export and import TEUs per hinterland region
difference between export and import TEUs per maritime relation
Adjustments:
differences between port of discharge and port of loading of containers
equalisations between certain maritime trade routes 
Result: estimated transport chains for laden and empty containers
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

12. 4. Linking trade and transport data
Applications
Market analyses
market shares of ports in hinterland regions
identification of potential new markets for ports
modal split analyses
Improved port traffic forecasting
estimated transport chains allow differentiated forecasts
impact of specific economic scenarios on the structure of a port’s cargo traffic can be directly calculated

13. 5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)
Structure of cargo traffic for each North Range port
... market share per segment
Source: ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

14. 5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)
Market shares by hinterland regions and modal split (ex.: Hamburg)
Source: ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

15. Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
6. Planned developments
further projects for North Range ports to improve robustness
building time series
expansion of the scope to the whole continental Europe (i.e. including Mediterranean)
large-scale survey among importing and exporting companies in continental Europe
standardizing the interface to Global Insight’s World Trade Service, thus permitting regularly updated port forecasts
21/03/2017
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

16. Thank you for your attention!
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
Sönke Maatsch
Economist
Maritime Economics and Transport
Universitätsallee GW1 Block A
28359 Bremen
Germany
Fax +49/4 21/
Tel. +49/4 21/
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes