1. Supply Chain and the Most Serious Global Risks
Linda Conrad, Zurich,
Chloe Demrovsky, DRI International

2. STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES
The world is beset by multiple near-term instabilities as longer-term structural challenges become ever clearer
GLOBAL INSTABILITIES
STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2016

3. A weak response to climate change and involuntary migration are among the most damaging and most likely risks
5.5
Economic
Environmental
Geopolitical
Societal
Technological
Water crises
Weak climate change response
WMDs
Biodiversity loss
Fiscal crises
Involuntary
migration
Energy price shock
Asset bubbles
5.0
Cyber attacks
Food crises
Interstate conflicts
Infectious diseases
Terrorist attacks
Social instability
Impact if the risk were to occur (score)
Extreme weather
High unemployment
4.5
Data fraud or theft
Natural catastrophes
Nat. governance failures
Illicit trade
Note: Entire scale is from Top 20 risks in terms of overall impact and likelihood are shown
4.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Likelihood to occur over the next ten years (score)
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2016

4. Geopolitical and societal risks dominate short term, but societal and environmental risks are of most concern in the long term
Rank
Next 18 months
10-year horizon
Category
Involuntary migration
Water crises
State collapse or crisis
Failure of climate change mitigation and adaption
Interstate conflict
Extreme weather events
High structural un- or underemployment
Food crises
Failure of national governance
Profound social instability 1 1
Economic
Environmental
Geopolitical
Societal
Technological 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2016

5. The Despite regional differences, structural unemployment and national governance failure are the most widely expected risks
Economic
Environmental
Geopolitical
Societal
Technological
Large-scale cyber attacks
Extreme weather events
Data fraud or theft
North America 1 3
Large-scale involuntary migration
Structural un- or under-employment
Fiscal crises
Europe 2
Inter-state conflict
Failure of national governance
MENA, Central Asia and Russia
Profound social instability
LatAm and Caribbean
Failure of critical infrastructure
Sub-Saharan Africa
Natural catastrophes
S. Asia, E. Asia, and the Pacific
(01/16) TCL
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2016

6. Social instability is a center-piece for risk interconnectivity
Weak climate change response
Extreme weather
Economic
Environmental
Geopolitical
Societal
Technological
Biodiversity loss
Water crises
Food crises
Involuntary migration
High unemployment
State collapse
(01/16) TCL
Social instability
Interstate conflict
Fiscal crises
Nat. governance failures
Illicit trade
Terrorist attacks
Adverse technological consequences
Cyber attacks
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2016

7. The issues raised in the Global Risks Report illustrate why companies need a holistic risk management approach

8. DRI Future Vision Committee: 2016 Predictions and Trends Report
“Test your assumptions against extreme examples of what might happen. ‘What if’ rather than ‘how to’ should be the question that motivates our professional activities.”
Available in the DRI Library: