1. Creating a future that works for youth
Associate Professor Hernan Cuervo
Youth Research Centre
The University of Melbourne
Web:

2. Global youth transition regimes: the complex nexus between education and work

3. What future of work will children and youth experience?
Perspectives range widely, from more enticing views of abundant leisure, to more disturbing visions of widespread unemployment and deepening social divisions.
Total quantity of work: some jobs will disappear (factory towns), new jobs will be created (yet unknown)
Distribution of work: routine tasks disappear (check-out supermarkets, warehouse, legal contracts); non-routine tasks continue (abstract cognitive tasks that demand higher education knowledge)
Different reports see unlikely that Australia will lose 40% of workforce to automation. They believe our institutions and policies have been robust. Most importantly, what will change is how you spend your time at work.

4. The Life Patterns Program in 2018
Cohort 1
Generation X: born in early 1970s. Left secondary school in 1991
Sample size 2000 in 1996, now 273
Currently aged
Representative by gender, type of school attended, rural/urban
Victoria
Cohort 2
Generation Y: born in late 1980s. Left secondary school in 2006
Sample size 4000, now 535
Currently aged 29-30
Representative by gender, type of school attended. Over-sampled in rural
VIC, ACT, TAS, NSW
Team members: Lead CI Prof. J. Wyn, H. Cahill, D. Woodman, H. Cuervo, J. Chesters, J. Cook, J. Reade, S. Jackson & International Partner Prof. Carmen Leccardi.

5. Which of the following is likely for you in 5 years from now, by ‘very likely’, both cohorts in 1996 & 2011, age 22-23, (%)

6. How do you rate the following as goals to aim throughout your life
How do you rate the following as goals to aim throughout your life? By “very high”, in 2006 (age 17-18) and 2015 (age 26), in %

7. Level of Education by 2017, age 28-29 (%)

8. Link between education and work & experience of job insecurity, in 2017, age 28, (%)

9. High “horizontal” job mobility

10. Working conditions - “Irregular shifts”: Q
Working conditions - “Irregular shifts”: Q. Your work involves… (By “agree”) (age 20) to 2017 (age 28), in %

11. In the past few months, how healthy have you felt mentally
In the past few months, how healthy have you felt mentally? Study-work patterns. By “very unhealthy” & “unhealthy”, in 2017, N=527, (%)

12. What does job insecurity do? A longitudinal view.
Participants that were in insecure work (non-permanent) both in 2012 (age 23-24) & 2017 (age 28-29) were…
More likely to only have a secondary school degree
More likely to be ‘single’ or ‘in a relationship’ than in ‘de facto’ / ‘married’
More likely to have poor mental health (particularly women)
More likely to report lower levels of wellbeing
More likely to feel they cannot plan for the future
These are the scarring effects of insecure work

13. 86% - in 2009, age 20 95% - in 2011, age 22 92% - in 2013, age 24
How much importance would you give to the following in deciding on a job for the future? “Job is secure”, by ‘very important/important’, 2009 to 2017
86% - in 2009, age 20
95% - in 2011, age 22
92% - in 2013, age 24
95% - in 2015, age 26
93% - in 2017, age 28

14. The difficulty of planning a life (2017)
Not being able to plan too far ahead is an awful way to live. Always worrying about some unexpected bill or emergency leaves you feeling like you will never get ahead. (Female, regional town, TAFE Cert. 3, Sales)
Only having casual work available means that I can't plan for my future. I can't rely on my job being there in a year and as it is it makes me unwell. (Female, metro area, university bachelor degree, professional)

15. The impact of job insecurity
Job insecurity is part and parcel of being employed, I can't foresee building a suitable life with a traditional middle class career. I see the employee lifestyle as no longer viable for success. (Male, metro area, secondary school degree, sales)
Job insecurity has cost me my relationship. It is highly stressful as I am no financially secure. Jobs in my field are hard to come by and also stressful. It could take me a long time to find a permanent job and I may have to relocate. (Female, metro area, university Master degree, professional)
Impacted the relationship with my husband and my mental health. The stress of raising two young children and paying a mortgage on one wage is a very stressful thought. (Female, regional city, advanced diploma, sales)

16. Looking back at hopes you had in school, how satisfied are you with the way things have turned out, by ‘very satisfied’, aged 25, (Cohort 1) 1999 & (Cohort 2) 2014, (in %)
This slide shows that while the two generations have very similar values, the second cohort has learned to see some things differently. In particular, they have learned to be more flexible about how they might use their education, and are prepared to continue with education to achieve their goals. The are also less satisfied with the situation with the environment.

17. The three issues you consider are the most important in Australia today (2017, in %)

18. Effects Longer job search time and poorer quality jobs “Scarring”
Loss of earning power
Distrust of socio-economic and political systems
Dissatisfaction with work
Struggle to balance life and work
Denial of the resources to build a life
Low rates of marriage and fertility
Increasing rates of mental health problems (anxiety disorders and depression)

19. Conclusion: A new adulthood
Earlier engagement with ‘adult’ practices
Increased investment and time in education
Education is a key strategy for achieving security
Transitions to work aged 25
Tertiary education a necessary but not sufficient tool to secure well-paid employment
Increase in precarious work
Even for the educated
Job mobility
“If you stay in one job for more than three years it looks bad”
High value on secure, meaningful work, on personal relationships and on ethical practice

20. Thank you
To learn more about Life Patterns project: