1. LFS user presentation: DG EMPL
Magdalena Grzegorzewska, Filip Tanay
DG EMPL, A4
29/06/ LAMAS

2. LFS data – use in DG EMPL Monitoring policies Analytical work
Assessment tools
DG EMPL wishes
Methods, data
Microdata
Ad-hoc modules
Seasonally adjusted main indicators
Flow statistics
Scores, regressions
Ad-hoc modules: migration, retirement, youth, health and safety, self-employment, time working arrangement, reconciliation

3. Monitoring policies Europe 2020 and European Semester
European Pillar of Social Rights
Equal opportunities and access to the labour market
Fair working conditions
Adequate and sustainable social protection
Youth employment - Youth Guarantee
Long-term unemployment
Migration and mobility
New skills agenda for Europe
New Start initiative on work-life balance
Equal opportunities and access to the labour market
Skills, education, life-long learning; Flexible and secure labour contracts; Secure professional transitions; Active support to employment; Gender equality and work-life balance; Equal opportunities
Fair working conditions
Conditions of employment; Wages; Health and safety at work, Social dialogue and involvement of workers
Adequate and sustainable social protection
Integrated social benefits and services; Health care and sickness benefits; Pensions; Unemployment benefits; Minimum income; Disability; Long-term care; Childcare; Housing; Access to essential services

4. Analytical work Regular publications
Employment and Social Developments in Europe
Labour Market and Wage Developments in Europe
EU Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review
Analytical webnotes (Labour market transitions, Measuring skills mismatch)
Working papers
EMCO/SPC/Commission reports
Topical reports and analytical documents (for social partner consultations)
Impact assessments and evaluations (occupational health and safety)

5. Assessment tools and indicators
Europe 2020 indicators
MIP´s alert mechanism
AR, LUR, YUR - 3 year-change
Scoreboard of key employment and social indicators
UR, YUR, NEET, GDHI growth, AROP 18-64, S80/S20
Joint assessment Framework (JAF)
400 indicators (60% LFS)
Employment Performance Monitor
Social Protection Performance Monitor
LUR, YURatio, NEET, ER55-64
Benchmarking employment and social policies
JAF
400, 200 main, overall and subindicators
420 unique, 200 unique (60% LFS)

6. Joint Assessment Framework (JAF)
Analytical tool for tracking progress and monitoring the Employment Guidelines under Europe 2020
11 policy areas
Increase labour market participation
Enhancing labour market functioning; combating segmentation
Active labour market policies
Adequate employment oriented social security systems
Work-life balance
Job creation
Gender equality
Improving skills and productivity; Lifelong learning
Improving educational and training systems
Wage setting mechanisms and labour costs
Preventing poverty through inclusive labour markets, adequate and sustainable social protection and access to high quality, affordable and sustainable service
Overall, subindicators and context indicators
400 indicators (60% LFS)

7. The Labour Market Integration of Refugees
Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2016

8. Low labour market performance compared to many other migrants (EU-25*)
Labour market outcomes
Low labour market performance compared to many other migrants (EU-25*)
Source: Eurostat

9. Low labour market performance compared to many other migrants (EU-25*)
Labour market outcomes
Low labour market performance compared to many other migrants (EU-25*)
Source: Eurostat. *low reliability; **did not take part in 2014 AHM

10. Social outcomes Education
As much as a fifth of existing refugees are highly educated, but many are also low educated
2014
A social outcome but also a driver
Source: DG EMPL calculations based on EU-LFS 2014 module

11. Labour market outcomes
Employment outcomes of refugees catch up with time, but it takes up to 20 years
Source: Eurostat

12. Labour market outcomes
Having intermediate language skills gives a big boost to employment chances
And most importantly, there are indications that the language also helps unlock education gains and is a necessary condition of making good use of one's qualifications
Source: Eurostat

13. 1. Employment rate by category of migrants
Ordinal logistic regression
1. Employment rate by category of migrants
Employed in % of all people aged 15-64, 2014 ! !
additionally controlled for ….

14. Combatting and preventing long-term unemployment (LTU)
Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2015

15. Three steps to go back to work
Objective
Support Member States to increase transitions from long term unemployment to employment
2. Individual assessment
1. Registration
3. Job Integration Agreement
months
***via a SINGLE POINT OF CONTACT***

16. What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after?
Chances to find a job decreased during the crisis…
What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after?
Both due to older and younger: LTU is very different across Member States (look at A1 table)
Source: DG EMPL elaborations based on EUROSTAT experimental EU-LFS flow statistics.
Note: * EU-24 is EU-28 without Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Portugal; population
reference group: years old.

17. What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after?
…but fewer people moved to inactivity
What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after?
Both due to older and younger: LTU is very different across Member States (look at A1 table)
Source: DG EMPL elaborations based on EUROSTAT experimental EU-LFS flow statistics.
Note: * EU-24 is EU-28 without Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Portugal; population
reference group: years old.

18. What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after?
…but considerable differences across Member States
What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after?
Both due to older and younger: LTU is very different across Member States (look at A1 table)
Source: DG EMPL elaborations based on EUROSTAT experimental EU-LFS flow statistics.
Note: * EU-24 is EU-28 without Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Portugal; population
reference group: years old.

19. Who are the LTU most at affected?
Long-term unemployment did not impact all different groups of the EU-28 population equally but those worst off, the most LTU, before the crisis were those that suffered most during the crisis and to this day.
Examining all of the different age, gender, country of birth and education groups together in terms of LTU stocks it is apparent that the crisis increased the risk of being LTU most in the part of the labour force that was already suffering from the highest levels of LTU

20. Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review
Latest developments
Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review

21. What are latest developments in the EU?
LUR decreasing faster than short-term unemployment.
But a problem

22. … finding jobs improves, separations decline
The evolution of the job finding rate (a measure of the probability that an unemployed person finds a job within the next month) and of the job separation rate (a measure of the probability that an employed person becomes unemployed in the next month)

23. Suplementary indicators to unemployment, seasonally adjusted!
There are other issues: discouragement, underemployment…
Suplementary indicators to unemployment, seasonally adjusted!
LUR decreasing faster than short-term unemployment.
But a problem

24. Implementation of Youth Guarantee and operation of Youth Employment Initiative
DE MT CZ AT NL EE DK
UK LT LU HU LV SI
PL BG IE SE
EU28 RO EA19 FI FR SK BE CY PT
IT HR
ES EL

25. Key indicators for youth
DE MT CZ AT NL EE DK
UK LT LU HU LV SI
PL BG IE SE
EU28 RO EA19 FI FR SK BE CY PT
IT HR
ES EL

26. Recent improvements… for adults and youth
Are there countries where young people
do relatively better?

27. Who are NEETs?

28. Scoreboard of key employment and social indicators
z-scores threshold -1
-0.5
0.5 1
lower than
higher than
Source: Eurostat, LFS. FR, ES break in series in 2014

29. Joint Assessment Framework

30. DG EMPL wishes Data for specific policies
Migration – reasons for migration
Care – obstacles to childcare, long-term care services, take-up of leaves
Accidents at work
Skills – data comparable with other surveys (AES, PIAAC)
Robust ad-hoc modules
Reliable and good quality data
NEEDCARE, pay from work
Longitudinal data - transitions for all Member States
Seasonally adjusted data, variance estimates, breaks in series
Consistency with other sources (National Accounts)
More regularly collected data on obstacles to childcare (planned for 2018 ad-hoc module)
Data on long-term care services (and possibly obstacles to access if possible)
Data on the take-up of leave arrangements (including duration of leave taken)