1. & Political Socialization
Public Opinion
& Political Socialization

2. Why does it matter to you?
Public Opinion
Core Questions:
Why are we the way we are?
Why does it matter to you?
In particular, how is public opinion formed and how does it affect policy?
Consists of the combined voices of all the people in a society on political issues
Polling and survey analysis emerge
Measure of all the people’s views
As technology and survey analysis techniques advanced, public opinion became understood to be the average of all individual opinions
Studies suggest that Americans are poorly informed about government
They don’t care much about most public policy issues, but are good at using limited information to figure out which candidates reflect their issues and then vote accordingly
Several abolished slavery: MA, NH, VT (through state constitutions).

3. How Public Opinion Is Measured
Poll – set of questions asked of a carefully constructed sampling of a population.
Random sample
Margin of error (sampling error)
While early polls had a much larger margin of error, polls today are much more accurate (though they can still make mistakes – look at 2016 election predictions)
NY Times (top)
FiveThirtyEight (bottom)

4. Polls Today Types of Polls and Techniques Polls in campaigns
Cluster sampling
Approximates a true random sample
Random digit dialing
Internet polling
How does it generate a truly random sample?
Polls in campaigns
Tracking polls (track voter opinion over time)
Exit polls (on election day after people have voted)
Push polls (“push” voters toward a certain conclusion)
What are the limitations of polls?
Margin of error (+/- 3%)
Question effects; wording
Artificial situations

5. Political Socialization
Political Socialization - The learning of political values and factual assumptions about politics
Occurs most readily in childhood and diminishes as people age
In adolescence and early adulthood, people form more concrete ideas about politics
Masses v. Elites (elite = people who have had access to more resources such as money, education, power. Know more, think differently about politics than masses).
Political ideology
Ideology is larger concept of politics
Genes play a major role in ideology, but not in party affiliation
Party identification
A sense of belonging or attachment to one or another of the political parties

6. Political Socialization

7. Group Differences in the United States
AGE
There are differences between younger and older Americans
Older: hold on to status quo (want to protect way of life, more resistant to change)
Younger: tend to embrace progressive view
Younger voters often willing to support less typical candidates (Bernie Sanders in 2016)
RACE AND ETHNIC GROUPS
The U.S. has a very diverse population
2050: Only about half population will consist of non-Hispanic whites.
Differences across racial/ethnic groups – often related to economic disparities
Sometimes issue-specific:
Role of life experiences among groups: discrimination
Hispanics: socially conservative; economically liberal
African-Americans: overwhelmingly vote Democratic

9. Group Differences in the United States
RELIGION
Americans are more religious than citizens of other economically well-off countries.
Less developed countries very religious: Saudi Arabia, India, Nigeria
Important determinant of voting behavior
Catholics: evenly divided among two parties
Protestants: moderate and evangelical
Moderates lean more toward Republican Party; evangelicals very much so.
Jewish: more liberal on most issues – only 21% identify as Republicans.
Muslims: identify primarily with the Democratic Party
Strong emphasis on caring for the poor
Conservative on moral issues

11. Social Class
Income differences in the U.S. are greater than in most of the world and they are continuing to increase.
Social class as political divisive:
Public opinion has been less defined by class in US than in Europe and class cleavage has declined since the 1940s
Today, low income voters are pulled two ways: social and religious issues pull them toward Republicans; economic issues toward the Democrats. Generally, more toward Democrats.
High income voters associated with business interests tend to favor the Republican Party; higher income professionals often side with liberals on social issues.
Moral, social and foreign policy issues don’t divide rich and poor in the same way as economic issues do, so many wealthy consider themselves ‘liberal’ and many poor consider themselves ‘conservative’

14. Gender
Before 1980s men and women voted alike and held similar views on political issues.
Gender gap emerged in 1980s: Women usually vote in greater numbers than men do
Women vote more frequently for the Democratic candidate and this advantage continues to strengthen in each recent election

15. Geographical Differences

16. Changes in Party Identification
Slow decline in party identification.
Usually pretty stable; can shift in response to events or leaders.
Long-term evolution of party identification does occur: recent history – increase in number of independents
Global phenomenon: What has caused this increase in industrialized democracies?
Not clear, generally supported explanation.