1. Copper Usage India - Overview
Sanjeev Ranjan

2. Outline
Global Copper Semis End Use
India Copper Semis End Use

3. Global Copper Semis End Use

4. COPPER USAGE BY GEOGRAPHY
Unit: kt Cu
2017
% total of Global
Annualized Growth
China
13368
47.5%
7.4%
Western Europe
3133
11.1%
-2.0%
North America
2223
7.9%
-4.7%
Eastern Europe
1298
4.6%
-1.9%
Latin America
1676
6.0%
0.1%
Japan
1201
4.3%
0.7%
India*
1266
4.5%
4.8%
ASEAN
1217
4.9%
South Korea
846
3.0%
Taiwan
424
1.5%
-2.6%
ROW
1477
5.3%
-4.3%
Total Global
28130
100.0%
1.6%
Source: IWCC/ICA
*Includes Indian subcontinent

5. Key drivers for economic growth and related copper consumption
Industrialization
Urbanization
Living Conditions
Sustainable Development
Scale of Growth
Pattern of Growth
Social Development
Economic
Development
Public private investment
Domestic Consumption
Export
Low carbon development
Safety, reliability & human health
Cost, material saving and substitution
In most cases, the growth path taken by economies are from industrialisation to rapid urbanisation. At this statge, scale of public private investment, domestic consumption and exports plays an important role. High copper requirement in infrastructure development. Most developing nations falls under this kind of development.
As the economies gradually moves towards better standard of living and focuses on sustainable development, energy efficiency, low carbon emission, safety and reliability starts gaining importance. Copper demand is driven by energy efficient equipment and alternate energy sources.

6. Global Semis Demand by Region
China’s share has almost doubled , India has shown marginal growth and others declined
Global Semis Demand by Region

7. Global Demand Drivers
Belt and Road Initiative of China - to add 6.5 million tonnes by 2027
Global growth of Electric Vehicle - to add 2 million tonnes by 2027
Global shift to low carbon economy –
Renewable
Energy efficient appliances

8. Electric Vehicle Forecast (IDTechEx) – to add 40 – 60kgs per vehicle

9. India Copper Semis Usage

10. Copper Usage by Semis - grew at CAGR of 6% over FY 2016

11. Copper Usage by Sector
Electrical sector applications account for ~52% of the total demand (CAGR of 5%).
Almost 25% of the total demand is met through recycled Copper
Breakdown of the current demand for Copper in India (FY18) in kT, %share
Demand for Primary Copper vs. Secondary Copper (FY18) in kT

12. Growth Drivers for End-use Sectors
Impact of growth driver on sector growth
High
Medium
Low
Electrical
Real Estate sector growth
Planned generation capacity addition
Manufacturing sector growth
Rural electrification drive
Consumer Durables
Penetration of residential Air Conditioners
Disposable income growth
Commercial Real Estate growth
Transportation
Rail electrification drive
Construction
Residential Real Estate sub-sector growth
Addition of hospital beds
Growth in number of PNG connections
Renewables
General Engineering

13. Copper imports have risen due to closure of 1 smelter (1/2)
HS Code
Commodity
Countries
YTD#
Cathodes and sections of cathodes of refined Copper
27,930
22,802
26,738
36,257
Japan (67%)
R. Congo
(22%)
9,566
Other refined Copper, unwrought  
8,849
8,978
7,601
6,552
Malaysia (73%)*
2,052
Electrolytic Copper rods or black Copper rods(including coils),wrought  
8,710
13,195
9,139
1,171
UAE (60%)
Malaysia
(23%)
292
Copper rods other than electrolytic, wrought  
22,397
23,407
15,641
9,748
UAE (74%)
3,374
Tubes and pipes of refined Copper  
27,627
35,306
41,120
49,339
Vietnam (52%)
Malaysia (24%)*
16,193
Other plates, sheets etc. of refined Copper  
7,147
6,412
6,654
6,759
China (54%)
Taiwan (15%)
2,158
Foil of refined Copper, backed  
9,284
9,439
11,732
12,220
China (72%)
3,642
Other Copper wire with max cross-sec diameter>6mm  
79,955
93,719
79,102
64,185
UAE (86%)
34,775
# April-June 2018

14. Copper imports have risen due to closure of 1 smelter (2/2)
HS Code
Commodity
Countries
YTD#
Other Copper wire with max cross-sec diameter>6mm  
79,955
93,719
79,102
64,185
UAE (86%)
34,775
Others with cross section<=6mm  
17,307
52,611
88,467
1,30,445
Indonesia (20%) Malaysia (36%)
Vietnam (27%)*
48,322
Copper scrap covered by various ISRI codes
52,641
56,896
45,017
44,444
Saudi Arabia (30%) UAE (23%)
Qatar (12%)
19,650
Brass scrap covered by various ISRI codes
1,07,641
1,18,801
1,21,759
1,27,116
UK, USA, Germany and Various
40,765
# April-June 2018
* FTAs are zero for Tubes, rods less than or equal to 6mm from ASEAN countries

15. Copper Net Imports – cathode export has reduced
HS Code
Commodity
YTD#
Cathodes and sections of cathodes of refined Copper 
-3,39,765
-2,96,730
-3,10,331
-3,42,205
2,331
Other refined Copper, unwrought  
8,601
8,957
7,471
6,477
2,049
Electrolytic Copper rods or black Copper rods(including coils),wrought  
8,344
12,732
8,818
821
175
Copper rods other than electrolytic, wrought  
21,529
21,891
14,481
8,259
2,966
Tubes and pipes of refined Copper  
26,901
34,089
39,665
47,589
15,386
Foil of refined Copper, backed  
9,277
9,416
11,730
12,218
3,642
Other Copper wire with max cross-sec diameter>6mm  
73,000
77,997
65,215
26,611
30,306
Others with cross section<=6mm  
15,148
50,516
85,454
1,27,722
47,745
Copper scrap covered by various ISRI codes 
52,054
56,148
44,671
43,733
19,602
Brass scrap covered by various ISRI codes
1,06,739
1,17,752
1,20,184
1,25,336
40,217
Other brass scraps  
5,037
4,084
3,109
1,211
237

16. Impact on Copper Supply
Increase in import of wire rods
Rise in Import of finished goods from ASEAN region as it comes under zero duty under FTA to impact domestic producers
Increased usage of low grade copper coming from unregistered players under secondary route
Currently almost 25% of copper demand is met through secondary copper
Copper supplied by unregistered players can achieve only 70%-80% conductivity which is way below ideal conductivity of minimum 99.99%

17. Thank you
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