1. An Infotrak Harris Poll On Kenyans’ Voting Intentions for the August 4th Referendum on the Proposed New Constitution
A Collaborative Effort Between Infotrak Research & Consulting & CMD; Center for Multi party Democracy July 2010

2. Introduction
With 11 days to the Referendum, both Yes and No camps have upped their campaign tactics in an attempt to garner more voters into their fold. The past three weeks have seen a both camps unleashing their top brass in efforts to lure and convince Voters. The predominant “No” Zones of Eastern and Rift Valley were over the weekend transversed by the Yes team led by His Excellency the President. The No team similarly visited the Yes strongholds led by William Ruto , Retired President Moi and the Clergy. This notwithstanding, the Committee of Experts and various Civil Society groups and indeed the Media have also been carrying our civic education throughout the country.
It is against this background that an Infotrak Harris Poll was conducted in Conjunction with Center for Multi Party Democracy; CMD.
The fieldwork covering 2500 respondents countrywide was carried out between Friday July 16th and Monday July 19th 2010, making it the most recent Poll.

3. The Methodology

4. The Methodology
A sample of 2500 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan registered voter population of 12,656,451 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 2 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all provinces of Kenya.
The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size with the registered voter distribution as the weighting factor. The sample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was district of residence which was further split into both urban and rural.
Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was done so as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya
Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews

5. The Sampling Points Province Region Sampling points Nairobi
All constituencies
Coast
S. W. Coast
Mvita
Matuga
North Coast
Garsen
Malindi
Eastern
Central Eastern
Manyatta
N. Imenti
Lower Eastern
Kitui Central
Machakos Town
Central
Nyeri
Nyeri Town
Kirinyaga Central
Thika
Kiambaa
Kangema
Rift Valley
North Rift
Eldoret North
Tinderet
South Rift
Bureti
Narok North
Central Rift
Nakuru Town
Baringo Central
Western
Kakamega
Lurambi
Butere
Bungoma
Funyula
Kanduyi
Nyanza
Nyanza Central
Kisumu Town East
Rangwe
South Nyanza
Nyaribari Chache
Migori
North Eastern
Garrissa Ijaara
Dujis

6. The Electoral Register that guided the Sampling Frame
Province
Region
Voter population
Nairobi
Nairobi Region
Coast
North Coast
329958
South West Coast
662365
Central
Nyeri Region
832681
Thika Region
Nyanza
Nyanza central
827943
South Nyanza
883802
Western
Bungoma
622891
Kakamega
734911
Rift Valley
North Rift
South Rift
936190
Central Rift
976339
Eastern
Upper Eastern
132251
Central Eastern
860204
Lower Eastern
North Eastern
Garissa Ijara Rgeion
76563
Wajir Mandera
155536
Total
Have all the provinces

7. Margin of Error explained
Margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, but only upto a certain point.
A very small sample, such as 50 respondents, has about a 14 percent margin of error while a sample of 1,000 has a margin of error of 3 percent.
By doubling the sample to 2,000, the margin of error only decreases from +/-3 percent to +/- 2 percent and +/-4 percent for a sample size of 4000.
This illustrates that there are diminishing returns when trying to reduce the margin of error by increasing the sample size.
A 95 percent level of confidence is usually the industry standard.

8. Margin of Error Illustration

9. The Key Findings

10. Finding 1:
Majority of Kenyans who have registered as voters intend to participate in the August 4th referendum

11. 98% of registered voters intend to participate in the August 4th referendum
Do you intend to participate in the August 4th referendum on the proposed new constitution of Kenya?
Base 2500
Majority of those who intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum indicated that they supported reforms and therefore a new constitution
A further 30% stated that by participating in this referendum, they would in effect be exercising their democratic right
You have indicated that you intend to vote in the August referendum, what are your reasons?
Base 2450

12. Lack of registration documents is the main undoing for those who do not intend to participate in the forthcoming referendum
Majority of those who do not intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum cited lack of registration documents (39%)
A further 29% indicated that they do not trust the proposed new constitution
You have indicated that you DO NOT intend to vote in the August 4th referendum, what are your reasons?
Base 50

13. Finding 2:
Approximately three in four of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum are indeed aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya

14. 75% of Kenyans indicated that they were aware of the General Contents of the proposed Draft Constitution. This signifies a growth of 9% in Awareness in comparison to the 66% registered in May.
In other words ¾ of Kenyans are generally aware about something contained in the draft. They don’t have to necessarily know everything, neither does the awareness have to have stemmed from personal reading of the draft.
The awareness emanates from various sources for instance the media, friends and family, civil society, politicians and even personal reading of the draft.
Awareness has grown by 9% over the past month. This can be attributed to increased impetus in Civic Education by COE and Civil Society and campaigns by the proponents and opponents of the draft.
Are you aware of the general contents of the proposed Draft Constitution?

15. Awareness is generally higher amongst:
Awareness Explained
Awareness is generally higher amongst:
Youth as compared to the older people
77% of Kenyans years are aware of the general contents of the draft in comparison to 45% of those 55 years and above
Men as compared to Women
Men recorded 75% awareness whilst women recorded 70% awareness. This is a marked shift from the 62% awareness in May.
Urban as compared to Rural dwellers
79% of urban dwellers are aware whilst 68% of rural dwellers are aware. The overall comparison is 75:68
More educated as compared to less educated
88% of the highly educated folk are aware as compared to 65% of those with up to secondary school education
Base 2500

16. Approximately three quarters of Kenyans registered voters in the August 4th referendum are aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution
Majority of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum reported awareness on the general contents of the proposed constitution
The lowest incidences of awareness were recorded in Eastern and Rift Valley provinces
Base 2500
Variance
[YES]
Nairobi
Central
Nyanza
Western
Coast
Eastern
R. Valley
N. Eastern
Total
+3%
+19%
+4%
+5%
+6%
+8%
+7%
+9%

17. Yes, I have read the contents of the Draft Constitution…..
30% of Kenyans stated that they had actually read the Draft Constitution.
Yes, I have read the contents of the Draft Constitution…..
May
June
+/-%
26%
30%
+4%
Those who have read the draft can be described as follows:
AGE: Between Ages of years
Which constitutes 68%
GENDER: Primarily Males at 68%. Only 38% Females have read the draft
REGION: Mainly Urban dwellers at 55%
ACADEMICS: Mainly College & University graduates at 52%

18. Finding 3:
Media is still the main source of information on the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya

19. 61% of Kenyans who are aware of the contents of the proposed constitution indicated that got their information from the Media.
How did you get to know the contents of the proposed new constitution?
The media remains the most effective source of information on the general contents of the draft. Other than Media Personal reading , Politicians and Religious leaders are the most important.
July 2010
Base 1837
May 2010
Variance
Media
Self read
Politicians
Religious leaders
Family/Friends
Civic education
+6%
+1%
+8%
+7%
-5%
+10%

20. Finding 4:
65% of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum indicated they would vote YES for the proposed constitution of Kenya

21. Most Kenyans have become decisive on their voting intentions come August 4th . Approximately 10% are still undecided on how they will vote
If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?
Majority of Kenyans who would participate in the forthcoming referendum exercise stated that they would vote YES (65%) while 25% indicated they would vote NO if the referendum was to be held today
On the other hand, the undecided constitute 10% of the survey respondents
Eastern and Rift Valley recorded the lowest incidence with regard to voting YES for the proposed new constitution
Base 2450

22. The undecided voters are increasingly reducing as they make up their minds on how they want to vote. The Yes Vote has gained 2% since May whilst the No vote
Base 2450

23. Twice as many women (67%) than men (33%) are still undecided
Whilst the percentage of men & women who intend to vote Yes is relatively close, twice as many women (67%) than men (33%) are still undecided
If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?
More males than females indicated that they would vote YES for the proposed new constitution of Kenya if the referendum was to be held today
Twice as many women (67%) than men (33%) are still undecided
Base 2450

24. Majority of those who would vote YES for the proposed new constitution if a referendum was held today are the youth
If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?
Base 2450

25. Voting patterns by religion

26. Reasons for their intended voting patterns
Reasons for voting YES
Reasons for voting NO

27. Reasons for liking or disliking the proposed constitution
Reasons for liking the proposed new constitution
Incidence level %
Devolution of power & decentralization of resources 75
Land issues/allocation 51
Equality in in paying of taxes in the public service 33
Representation of people 53
Ministers not to be members of parliament/lean cabinet 5
Vetting of judges in the judiciary 7
Gender equality 9
Executive presidency with no prime minister 8
Dual citizenship 11
Others 2
Reasons for disliking the proposed new constitution
Incidence level %
Legalization of abortion 52
Inclusion of Kadhi’s Courts 24
Unfair representation 50
Elimination of provincial administration 42
Limitation of land holding acreage 49
Others 4

28. Demographics

29. REGION
Base 2500

30. GENDER
Base 2500

31. AGE
Base 2500

32. EDUCATION LEVEL
Base 2500

33. LOCATION
Base 2500

34. About Infotrak

35. About Infotrak
Infotrak Research is a professional research company that was founded in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever-growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, Infotrak also has offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub Saharan Africa.
The firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth not only to innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as “Business minds who specialize in research. Whilst Infotrak has already carved a niche in market research, the firm’s reputation in Social research has quickly gained impetus. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand.
In 2007, Infotrak became a global network affiliate of Harris Interactive, the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and Media Transfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms.