1. Global Agri Commodity Market Outlook Economic Advisor, IMC and
IMC-MCX (IPF) Commodity Market Fundamentals Forum January 17, Mumbai
Global Agri Commodity Market Outlook
G. Chandrashekhar
Economic Advisor, IMC and
Director, IMC-ERTF

2. VUCA continues
2018 was full of uncertainties / risks; Crude prices; Fed rate hike; USD rise; Protectionism; Sanctions; Trade friction; Tariffs and counter-tariffs; and more ….
2019 will be no different – headwinds: geopolitical tensions, trade friction; changing GVCs; monetary policy; USD; Crude oil; Event risks; importantly, growth concerns (why??); incipient signs of El Nino in South Asia;

3. Global Cotton Fundamentals (in million tons)
Year 2017/ /19 Op stock Output Use End stock Output set to decline; tightening supplies; reducing stocks; market takes cognizance in advance

4. Global Cotton Fundamentals
U.S. - China trade / tariff war
China to restock after years of destocking
Brazil to be largest exporter to China
GVC changing
Falling crude oil makes synthetics less expensive

5. Palm Oil Fundamentals (million tons)
Year 17/18 18/19 19/20 Op stock Output Use End stock Market in clear surplus; abundant availability of vegoil globally; demand trails supplies; stocks rising;

6. Palm Oil Fundamentals
Increase in mature palm plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia; 9-10 ml t from other origins;
Record soy crop dragging palm down
Impact of U.S.- China trade war and changing global supply chain
Crude oil correction –ve for palm
Q1 expect small price increase due seasonal factors; but Q2 onwards bearish pressure

7. Outlook: brace for volatility
Agri markets are set to be volatile
Weather is key
Funds will play their role
Those with exposure must hedge price risks to protect margin
Review trading strategy every quarter

8. Thank You
G. Chandrashekhar Global Agribusiness and Commodities Market Specialist Member, SEBI-CDAC Member, SEBI-RAC Phone: