1. COMMODITY MARKET FUNDAMENTALS FORUM
At IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry By Vinay Kotak – Director, Kotak Commodities

2. Area under Production

3. State wise Production

4. Balance Sheet Comparison

5. MSP for long staple cotton has increased by 26
MSP for long staple cotton has increased by percent to 5,450 Rs/Quintal. In spite CCI purchases less than even 4 lakh Bales which is just 3% of arrivals
Why?

6. Why is the market still weak?
As compared to last year US crop is less by about 3.5 Million Bales, Australian crop is less by 2.2 Million Bales, Pakistani Crop is less by 1.5 Million Bales, Indian Crop is less by 2.5 Million Bales
Why is the market still weak?

7. Bulls vs Bears Bullish Factors Bearish Factors
Trade war compromise in short term
China to Buy Large quantity of Agri Products including cotton
US Fed to Slow Down Rate increase
Weaker US Dollar
Indian MSP Making US cotton cheapest Growth
Indian reduced crop estimate
Turkey – USA Normalizing relations
60%+ US Crop sold season start
If Crude Prices increase (supply cut by OPEC), Cotton Prices will increase
China releases more Quota as their reserve stock has decreased substantially
Trade war will take long to settle
China not importing yarn
China internal yarn and cotton prices weak
China Bumper crop
Global economy concerns
Emerging Markets Weak
Consumption Overstated
If Crude prices fall or remain constant, pressure from the competing synthetic fibres will drag the cotton prices low.
China’s import shift from US Cotton to Brazilian Cotton

8. Future Price Outlook for next 6 months
International – ICE cents/lb Range of 25%
Domestic Shankar 6 (long staple) 42,000 – 50,000 Rs/Candy Range of 19%