1. What is behind the recent slowdown in health spending?

2. U.S. health care spending per capita has risen at historically low rates recently, but is expected to pick up
Average annual growth rate of health spending per capita for 1970’s – 1990’s; Annual change in actual health spending per capita 2000 – 2014 and projected health spending per capita (2015 – 2024)
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group Note: 2015 projected growth rates are calculated using data from “NHE Projections tables”

3. Health spending growth has slowed in the U. S
Health spending growth has slowed in the U.S. and in comparable countries
Average annual growth rate in total health expenditures per capita, U.S. dollars, PPP adjusted
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of 2013 OECD data: "OECD Health Data: Health expenditure and financing: Health expenditure indicators", OECD Health Statistics (database). doi: /data en (Accessed on June 25, 2014). Notes: Data unavailable for: Australia and the Netherlands in 2012; France from 1981 through 1984 and 1986 through 1989; and Germany in OECD reports a break in series for: Belgium in 2003; Canada in 1975 ; France in 2003; and the Netherlands in Canada and Switzerland data are reported as estimated values for 2012.

4. Low growth rates have persisted for five years, sparking researchers to look for the causes
Annual change in U.S. per capita health spending 2000 – 2013
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group

5. What types of structural changes in the health care system may be contributing to the slowdown?
Changes in insurance
Higher deductibles and cost sharing
Shifts from employer-sponsored coverage to lower-paying public coverage and in uninsurance
Changes in Medicare and Medicaid payment policies and limits on provider reimbursements
Slower diffusion of new medical technology, as examples:
Few new high-cost prescription drugs, combined with existing brands moving to generic status
Slowing use of advanced imaging and expensive heart procedures
Increased efficiency of health care providers

6. Medicare spending slowed for different reasons than private spending
CBO projections of Mandatory outlays per Medicare beneficiary, predicted based on baseline year
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of mandatory Medicare outlays and Medicare enrollment data from CBO Medicare baseline projections, : Notes: Grey lines represent 2011 – 2013 baseline projections.

7. An annual percentage point difference in growth rates makes a very large difference in spending over time
Projected annual change in U.S. per capita health spending 2014 – 2024, alternative scenarios
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group