Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published bySaul Bullen Modified over 10 years ago
1
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - 2005 Presented June 14, 15, 2005 by Zigong International Marketing, LLC 421 High Street, Fairport Harbor, OH 44077, USA China Tungsten Today
2
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC JV subsidiary of the Zigong Cemented Carbide Company (ZCCC)
3
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC JV subsidiary of the Zigong Cemented Carbide Company (ZCCC) ZCCC is the second largest producer of carbide products in China and in the top 15 world wide
4
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC JV subsidiary of the Zigong Cemented Carbide Company (ZCCC) ZCCC is the second largest producer of carbide products in China and in the top 15 world wide Exports more than 3,000 mt of tungsten products annually
5
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC JV subsidiary of the Zigong Cemented Carbide Company (ZCCC) ZCCC is the second largest producer of carbide products in China and in the top 15 world wide Exports more than 3,000 mt of tungsten products annually 4,000 mt carbide capacity, over 3,000 employees
6
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Tungsten in China Considered a National Strategic Material
7
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Tungsten in China Considered a National Strategic Material Identified as a State Trading Commodity by the WTO
8
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Tungsten in China Considered a National Strategic Material Identified as a State Trading Commodity by the WTO Exports controlled by licenses starting in 2001/APT/AMT/BTO/YTO/W/WC/Cast/scrap/SW/ CaW/W Acid
9
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Tungsten in China Considered a National Strategic Material Identified as a State Trading Commodity by the WTO Exports controlled by licenses starting in 2001/APT/AMT/BTO/YTO/W/WC/Cast/scrap/SW/ CaW/W Acid Majority of world tungsten supply and resources are from or in China (75%)
10
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in 2001
11
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in 2001 16,200 mt in 2004
12
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in 2001 16,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004
13
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in 2001 16,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004 First half 2005 12,100 mt vs. 11,500 mt in 2004
14
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in 2001 16,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004 First half 2005 12,100 mt vs. 11,500 mt in 2004 Total 2005 to be slightly lower than 2004
15
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in 2001 16,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004 First half 2005 12,100 mt vs. 11,500 mt in 2004 Total 2005 to be slightly lower than 2004 We expect a license shortage later in 2005
16
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in 2001 16,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004 First half 2005 12,100 mt vs. 11,500 mt in 2004 Total 2005 to be slightly lower than 2004 We expect a license shortage later in 2005 Only a few companies have access to these licenses – Minmetals/Xiamen/Zhou Zhou/ Zigong/Nanchang are the primary exporters
17
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Export Statistics: Q1 2004 vs. Q1 2005 2004 2005 (mt of material) APT/AMT/ST1,502 1,301 YTO/BTO/Acid2,217 1,921 W/WC/Cast 888 1,071 FeW1,079 881 Totals5,686 5,234 (Source: Mr. Fang Jinyun, Minmetals Head Office, Beijing) Thanks Fang.
18
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance
19
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment
20
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals)
21
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals) 4.Miners realized they really control the market
22
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals) 4.Miners realized they really control the market 5.Need to make money after years of suffering
23
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals) 4.Miners realized they really control the market 5.Need to make money after years of suffering 6.Lack of Water
24
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals) 4.Miners realized they really control the market 5.Need to make money after years of suffering 6.Lack of Water 7.Lack of Electricity
25
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased (continued) 8.Few new resources being developed
26
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased (continued) 8.Few new resources being developed 9.No one believed the warning signs (lean craze)
27
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased (continued) 8.Few new resources being developed 9.No one believed the warning signs (lean craze) 10.Speculators, greed
28
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty
29
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low
30
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low Speculators still active/traders reenter the market
31
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low Speculators still active/traders reenter the market Prices for YTO/BTO over $300 per MTU
32
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low Speculators still active/traders reenter the market Prices for YTO/BTO over $300 per MTU Near by shortage situation should remain until the fall
33
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low Speculators still active/traders reenter the market Prices for YTO/BTO over $300 per MTU Near term shortage situation should remain until the fall No near term reason for prices to decline significantly
34
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC The DLA & Chinese National Stockpile The US DLA stockpile of tungsten, while huge, is of declining quality and of little benefit to most global tungsten concentrate consumers.
35
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC The DLA & Chinese National Stockpile The US DLA stockpile of tungsten, while huge, is of declining quality and of little benefit to most global tungsten concentrate consumers. Releasing more material from the DLA is not a solution. Few can use it/time to market/no price relief.
36
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC The DLA & Chinese National Stockpile The US DLA stockpile of tungsten, while huge, is of declining quality and of little benefit to most global tungsten concentrate consumers. Releasing more material from the DLA is not a solution. Few can use it/time to market/no price relief. China has a stockpile. Is strategic in nature and not for market interventions.
37
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC The DLA & Chinese National Stockpile The US DLA stockpile of tungsten, while huge, is of declining quality and of little benefit to most global tungsten concentrate consumers. Releasing more material from the DLA is not a solution. Few can use it/time to market/no price relief. China has a stockpile. Is strategic in nature and not for market interventions. Stockpiles are really bad for markets and producers.
38
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k.
39
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place.
40
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way.
41
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way. As the supply and demand remain close to balanced, price volatility will exists.
42
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way. As the supply and demand remain close to balanced, price volatility will exists. What goes up must come down- the bubble will burst.
43
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way. As the supply and demand remain close to balanced, price volatility will exists. What goes up must come down- the bubble will burst. License situation will be critical later in the year.
44
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way. As the supply and demand remain close to balanced, price volatility will exists. What goes up must come down- the bubble will burst. License situation will be critical later in the year. LMB and other publications no longer reliable indicators of price.
45
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development.
46
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development. 2.Better Supplier / Consumer relationships.
47
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development. 2.Better Supplier / Consumer relationships. 3.Pricing structures which allow profitability at all levels.
48
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development. 2.Better Supplier / Consumer relationships. 3.Pricing structures which allow profitability at all levels. 4.More accurate mechanism for material pricing besides publication reports.
49
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development. 2.Better Supplier / Consumer relationships. 3.Pricing structures which allow profitability at all levels. 4.More accurate mechanism for material pricing besides publication reports. 5.As the cemented carbide industry consolidates into a few huge global companies and a smattering of regional companies, change will have to come in the supply chain.
50
Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - 2005 Presented June 14, 15, 2005 by Zigong International Marketing, LLC 421 High Street, Fairport Harbor, OH 44077, USA Thank You!
Similar presentations
© 2024 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.