1. Hans H. Tung Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies 03/08/2012
Thesis Writing
Crafting Research
Hans H. Tung
Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies
03/08/2012

2. A Few Essentials… Personal Interest and Qualifications
The State of the Field
Frontier Issues
Theoretical Lacunae
Research Design

3. Tripartite Methodology
Major Advocate: David Laitin (Dept. of Political Science, Stanford University)
“Soak and Poke”
Analytics:
(Causal) Theory
Empirics:
Quantitative (Statistical) Analysis
Qualitative Analysis: Case Studies

4. Analytics:(Causal)Theory
Theory herein refers to work that
(a) postulates relationships among abstract variables,
(b) has rules of correspondence such that one can map values for a large number of real world cases on each of the variables, and
(c) provides an internally consistent logic that accounts for the causal relationships
Parsimony: Occam’s (or Occham’s) Razor
"Shave off" (do not introduce) unnecessary entities in explanations.

5. Political Science as an Empirical Science
Causal Inference
Generalization: Law-like regularities
The explanation must be valid across space and time.
Falsification: Popperian View of Science
Empirical Strategy
Qualitative (small-number case studies)
Most-different method
Most-similar method
Quantitative (large-number)
Regression

6. Most-similar Method
cases X1 X2 X3 X4 Y
England
Stability
France N
Revolution
Choose two or more cases that have different results but share most conditions in common. The factor that differs is the cause for the variations in them.

7. Most-different Method
Cases X1 X2 X3 X4 Y
France
Revolution
Russia N
On the contrary, for this method, choose two or more cases that have the same outcome but share only one condition in common. Since other conditions are all different in these cases, the only one in common is the cause for the outcome.

8. One Example
Economic Openness (Globalization) and higher Government Social Spending in OECD countries (US, UK, Germany, and Japan, etc.)
Data: The growth of government spending as economy becomes more open
Theory: economic openness risk (prices fluctuated and exchange rates became more unstable) demands for social protection left party victory in elections  new social programs were launched  higher government spending
Empirical Strategy:
Cross-national regression model
Comparative Case Studies

9. Another Example Political Economy of China’s Trade Liberlization
Data: China’s Tariff Dispersion
Theory: Special Interest Politics (“Protection for Sale,” Grossman, G.and Helpman, E., American Economic Review 84(4): )
Lobbies offer contribution schedules  the government auctions off higher trade protection to industries contribute more.
Empirical Strategy:
Cross-industry regression model
Comparative Case Studies

10. China’s Tariff Dispersion 1992~1996