1. The role of models in supporting river basin management
Michiel Blind
Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management
Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment/RIZA

2. Contents Who am I? The projects I am involved in
The role of models (ref: abstract)
The ICT needs of the WFD (ref: position paper)
Open research questions
Links to other topics
Technological perspectives EU

3. Who am I: Projects I am involved in - 1: HarmonIT (FP5) -
HarmonIT develops a model linkage interface standard: OpenMI
Speeds up linking models to form integrated systems
Allows selecting linking the best tools
Allows re-use of generic tools
Makes research in linkage and scaling possible
Presentation Roger Moore

4. Who am I: Projects I am involved in - 2: HarmonRiB (FP5) -
HarmonRiB researches
Integrated uncertainty assessment of data/model systems, including socio-economics
HarmoniRiB creates
A virtual laboratory for modelling studies, in which as many data as possible are available, including associated uncertainties

5. Who am I: Projects I am involved in - 3: Harmoni-CA (FP5) –
will produce
GUIDANCE AND METHODOLOGIES
based on
SUPPORT AND CONSENSUS
achieved by
involving science, policy and stakeholders
synthesising available knowledge
establishing broad dialogues
and tuning projects

6. Harmoni-CA Objectives
create a forum for communication, information exchange and harmonisation of ICT-tools for integrated river basin management
support framework for harmonised tools, incl. guidance
stimulate proper development and use of tools

7. Organisational structure
WP1:
Establishment of a communication forum / Harmoni-CA management
Guidance documents for river basin modelling
WP3:
Joint use of monitoring and modelling
WP4:
WP2:
Toolbox
Co-ordination ongoing / future RTD-activities
WP6:
WP5:
Integrated assessment and the science-policy interface

8. The (FP5) CatchMod cluster: co-ordinated development and implementation of tools for the WFD
Formal CatchMod
CatchMod
is not
exclusive
MULINO
&
Other EU
research
World
Wide
Initiatives
National
Clime
Harmoni-
RiB
TransCat
Harmoni-
QuA
EuroHarp
Harmoni-
-CA
Harmon- IT
BMW
Harmoni-
CoP
Tizsa
River
Temp-
QSim

9. Harmoni-CA activities this year
September 16-17
Technical workshops
Advancing project interactions in Catchment Modelling!
November 4-5
Harmoni-CA Forum
“harmonise river basin management tools and knowlegde for the implementation of the water framework directive.”

10. The role of models (ref: abstract)
A Classification (of many)
Short term operational
Low uncertainty
Mid term planning, management and immediate problem solving
Relatively uncertain
long term: long-term scenario analysis
High Uncertainty

11. The role of models II The role of models very much depends on
Availability and quality of data
Complexity and spatial scale of the problem
Political urgency and involvement
Moment within the planning cycle
Level of (public) participation …
The models may be used in a quantitative or more qualitative fashion, for supporting dialogue or making actual decisions

12. The ICT needs of the WFD (ref: position paper)
WFD requires selecting an appropriate set of measures, with pre-requisite to be:
broadly supported (Stakeholder participation)
cost effective
effectively reach a ‘good ecological status’
This requires a
planning process

13. Collaborative planning process in integrated river basin management
(e.g. WFD)
Problem definition
Solution
Start
Implementation
Problems
DIFFERENT
...eco-zones
...issues
...users
...preferences
...languages
...ambitions
....
NOT FLEXIBLE
NOT INTERACTIVE
Interaction &
communication
THE
WFD
TOOL?
Information:
Data & Modelling
Quality assurance
Data system building
Application
Selection of building blocks
Adaptation
Tuning the system

14. Primary ICT & Modelling problem “Flexibility”
Since…
WFD system needs to provide information to all stakeholders on time for the planning process
System may drastically change due to new insights & needs during the process (stakeholder demands!)
It is required that…
Linkages of information sources need to be standardized ⇒ IT interface for models and databases! Architecture!
HarmonIT project develops OpenMI, the open modelling interface & architecture

15. “Secondary” problems If you have flexibility, the possibilities increase and related problems are:
Selection of sets of models to link
Overview and access to models
Overview and access to model data
Software and data quality assurance
(Meta-) data standards
Common data-models
Quality assurance and consistency guidelines
Methods for communicating with the non-specialist

16. Gaps which need to be filled in, or a currently being filled in by various CatchMod projects! Limited to model related issues
Selection of sets of models to link
Overview and access to models
Overview and access to model data
Software and data quality assurance
(Meta-) data standards
Common data-models
Quality assurance and consistency guidelines
Methods for communicating to the non-specialist
Consistent view on proper scenario-development
The consistent integrated use of all types of (foresight) models for long term scenario analysis
Pan European to global network for information and tools for scenario development!

17. CatchMod thus feeds to almost all topics
Links to other topics
Modelling and information systems are becoming more and more important in solving complex, international or global problems.
Modelling environments should be seen as infrastructure, which need to be maintained and developed irrespective of the actual topic
A key feature must be that development of dedicated (research or policy) topical systems keeps up with scientific ideas and policy development (policy cycle).
CatchMod thus feeds to almost all topics

18. Technological perspectives supporting solving the Global Water Crisis
HarmonIT ⇒ presentation Roger Moore
CatchMod & modelling in general
Consensus on good modelling and transparent model-based research may help
To achieve consensus on the problems, resulting in global (political) awareness and acceptance (e.g. IPCC)
To select cost-effective sets of measures
To embed knowledge
But be aware
Political acceptance of modelling appears to be decreasing (for many reasons),
Consensus on good modelling and transparent model-based research may lead to ignorance!

19. 5th ministerial conference Environment of Europe - Declaration
Information from (modelling) systems is vital for a common understanding and feeds preferably into a (international) dialogue-decide-deliver management process (as opposed to a decide – announce – defend process!) [par 14 and many others]
Socio-economic integration improves cross-boundary negotiation possibilities [par. 19, 37-41]
CatchMod = par 20 (environmental information)
Integrated modelling supports sustainable water management in general, especially when effects of different solution strategies have been captured in models (par 50-52)
Dedicated interactive modelling/information systems can play an important part in education and public awareness (par 58) …

20. EU water initiative 2.1: Improve co-ordination and co-operation
Models & information improve dialogue
2.1: Increase the efficiency of existing aid flows
Models & information allow efficiency assessments of plans
3.2 & 3.3: Models & information improve dialogue thus support co-operation in general
Language problems in tools need to be solved
CatchMod should spread it’s wings (NIS etc)!

21. Harmoni-CA activities this year
September 16-17
Technical workshops
Advancing project interactions in Catchment Modelling!
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