1. Korean National Police University May 2016 Paul Ekblom
The Conjunction of Terrorist Opportunity: A Framework to understand and prevent terrorist attacks
Korean National Police University
May 2016
Paul Ekblom
Visiting Professor
Applied Criminology Centre
University of Huddersfield

2. Counter-terrorism strategy in UK
CONTEST – UK Government approach to addressing the threat of terrorism – operates on a number of levels:
Prevent – stop people from becoming radicalised
Protect – stop attacks from happening
Prepare – once an attack has started, stop the attack and limit the harm to people, society and assets
Pursue – investigate the crime, and arrest, incapacitate, bring to justice the perpetrators
These different approaches operate by influencing a range of different causes of terrorism

3. Need for an adaptive approach
The nature of the terrorist threat is highly dependent on the local context, and successful security solutions or responses have likewise to be customised to suit the context
Terrorists are highly motivated, persistent, adaptable and innovative
The Technological, Social and Business environment is changing rapidly, which creates new opportunities that terrorists can exploit, ranging from vulnerabilities to weapons
We must be adaptable too, so we must make it easy for security practitioners to adapt to context, and to innovate faster than the perpetrators
Otherwise we will continue to win individual battles, but we may go on to lose the war in the longer term

4. Need for an integrated understanding of causes of terrorist attacks
In order to help security practitioners to be adaptable, they must
Think clearly
Communicate using consistent, well-defined terms
Store and retrieve knowledge of good (and bad) practice in a well-organised way that can help them to
Formulate the problem
If they discover successful exemplars of good practice, to replicate them in a way that is intelligently customised to problem and context
If they cannot find such good practices to replicate, then to generate a variety of plausible innovations that are based on tested theoretical principles
Security practitioners therefore need a knowledge base that is
Clearly-structured,
Integrated, and
With well-defined terminology

5. Unfortunately…
Different policymakers and different police practitioners focus on different levels under the CONTEST schema, and different types of causation of terrorist events, but an integrated approach is needed
But the language that different agencies and academics use is extremely diverse
For example, terms like ‘risk, threat and vulnerability’ are often given different meanings in different professions, or not defined at all
Criminologists have diverse terminologies too, and choose to focus on different sets of causes
In particular, there is a big divide between 1) those who focus on the perpetrator or offender, and 2) those who focus on opportunities and vulnerabilities in our target assets, and our environments and services

6. What we need is… So we need An integrated framework
With a common, well-defined language
That brings together all these types of causation of terrorist attacks, and different levels and types of response

7. One such approach was developed to meet these requirements
The Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity (CCO) was developed from a study of several hundred different crime reduction projects implemented in the UK’s Safer Cities programme
It brings together a range of theories covering the causation of crime from both the perpetrator or offender side (capability and intent), and the environmental or situational side (especially opportunity)
It is a ‘one-stop-shop’ for supporting two related tasks:
Understanding the immediate causes of criminal events, that reside in the crime situation, and what the perpetrator brings to that situation
Envisaging the range of interventions to block those causes, and so reduce the likelihood of the crimes from happening

8. One such approach was developed to meet these requirements
Now, the immediate causes of terrorist events are rather similar to those of ‘ordinary’ crime
So, several years ago I and two colleagues from the worlds of crime prevention training, and counter-terrorism, adapted CCO to the Conjunction of Terrorist Opportunity (CTO)
CTO has 2 perspectives:
On the causes of terrorist attacks or events
On the interventions we can make to block, weaken or divert these causes, and thereby frustrate terrorists from achieving their goals

9. Target Vehicles & Audiences
Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity
09/29/99
Conjunction of Terrorist Opportunity
Target Vehicles & Audiences
Ideology, goals

10. Ideological predisposition
Diagnosis – the immediate causes of terrorist events – the terrorist side
Ideological predisposition
Lack of skills and other personal resources to avoid terrorism
Readiness to act
Resources for committing terrorism
Decision to commit act of terrorism
Terrorist’s (tele)presence in situation
I’ll focus on the immediate causes for this presentation, don’t think CCTV has had a significant role on historical timescale yet….

11. Target of terror – vectors, audiences and military opponents
Diagnosis – the immediate causes of terrorist events – situational side
Target of terror – vectors, audiences and military opponents
Enclosures – for targets and for terrorists
Wider environment
Absence/incapacity of terrorism preventers
Presence/capacity of terrorism promoters
Tora Bora

12. A crime prevention intervention
Intervention in cause
Disruption of Conjunction of Terrorist Opportunity
Decreased risk of terrorist events
Reduced number of events
A crime prevention intervention
Wider benefits

13. Map of basic intervention principles
09/29/99
Likewise for intervention principles
Map of basic intervention principles

14. Intervention – the terrorist side
Ideological predisposition
Deradicalisation
Lack of skills and other personal resources to avoid terrorism
Increasing resistance to radicalisation
Readiness to act
Addressing short-term motivational pressures
Resources for committing terrorism
Denial of weapons, tools, info, funds
Decision to commit act of terrorism
Deterrence (risk) and Discouragement (low reward, high effort)
Terrorist’s (tele)presence in situation
Approach and access control
I’ll focus on the immediate causes for this presentation, don’t think CCTV has had a significant role on historical timescale yet….

15. Intervention – the situational side
Target of terror – vectors, audiences and military opponents
Target hardening, making it less vulnerable or attractive; making target audiences more resistant to influence
Enclosures – for targets and for terrorists
Hardening the enclosure, adding stand-off etc
Wider environment
Making reconnaissance difficult, making Vehicle-Borne attacks hard to approach the target or enclosure at speed
Absence/incapacity of terrorism preventers
Mobilising public, organisations, families to influence potential perpetrators or report suspicious activity
Presence/capacity of terrorism promoters
E.g. mobilising people who sell fertiliser, not to sell, or to tell police
Tora Bora

16. Preparation for attack
Complex attacks – multiple steps
Preparation for attack
Execution of attack
Consummation of attack
The same diagnostic map of causes can be applied to the event which completes each scene.
#Here’s the main scene, as before, the execution of the crime.
#Here’s the preparation - showing several components# and 2 stages.
#And here’s the consummation.
We can target our interventions at any stage - perhaps several.
We can use scene diagrams like flowcharts, to help us think strategically how criminals, particularly well-resourced organised criminals, could bypass blockages by seeking alternative routes to their goal. &

17. Summary
CTO aims to provide an integrated model of causes of terrorist events to aid understanding, investigation, risk and threat assessment, and prevention
Identifies full range of preventive responses which could be implemented by different agencies acting at different levels and over different timescales
Acknowledges evolutionary nature of the problem
We can use CTO to
Think strategically, or tactically, and always holistically about problems and solutions
Help to capture, store, retrieve and share knowledge of practice and policy
Communicate efficiently across professional disciplines, and internationally

18. Where to find CTO